The Production Profile (formerly the Vegas Report) provides a quick snapshot of year-to-date Vegas trends and their daily fantasy implications for the week’s slate of NFL games. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
It’s Week 13, and every NFL team has played 11 games. To understand more fully how teams have performed vis-à-vis Vegas, I’ve collected the point spreads and game totals for Weeks 1-12 and put them next to the year-to-date production data.
Vegas Plus/Minus
I’ve created a Vegas Plus/Minus metric (similar to our proprietary daily fantasy Plus/Minus metric) that compares actual production in points per game (PPG) with the totals implied by the Vegas data. A positive number means that a team scores more points than its implied total; a negative number, fewer points. If a team hits its Vegas-implied expectations in a game, that counts as a win; if a team fails to hit expectations, that’s a loss.
The Eagles continued to soar in Week 12, scoring at least 30 points for their fifth straight game. With only one loss, the Eagles have all but clinched the NFC East and could secure a first-round bye within a few weeks — if they survive their three-game road trip. To this point in the season the Eagles have been amazing. They have an NFL-high 37 offensive touchdowns, 71.8 percent red zone conversion rate, and 31.91 PPG. They lead the league with a +6.89 Vegas Plus/Minus and have hit their implied total in 10 of 11 games. Last year Carson Wentz had a bottom-four mark of 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt. This year Wentz has a top-four mark of 8.5. The Eagles have a tough Week 13 matchup in Seattle, but the Seahawks have injury issues with cornerback Richard Sherman (Achilles) and safety Kam Chancellor (neck) out and cornerback Shaquill Griffin (concussion) questionable. The spread has quickly moved from -3.5 to -5.0 in favor of Philadelphia.
The Bears, Cardinals, and Giants have hit their implied totals in a league-low three games. Of that trio, the Giants are undoubtedly the most pathetic. They’re second to last in the NFL with 15.64 PPG and a -3.77 Vegas Plus/Minus. The Bears and Cardinals at least have some hope for the future: Two of their three ‘implied wins’ have come with Mitchell Trubisky and Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. Gabbert especially has been impressive, and the Cardinals have a +7.38 Vegas Plus/Minus in his two starts. The Giants, however, have a decimated wide receiver unit with Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) and Brandon Marshall (ankle) out, and they could have a new head coach and starting quarterback next season. Wide receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram are intriguing in Week 13 because of their enhanced target shares and matchup versus a Raiders defense that is bottom-three against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) — but the Giants offense has remarkably little upside.
Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus
When thinking about game script, spreads, and over/unders, we should take defensive performance into account, so I’ve created a Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus. A positive number means that a team allows fewer points than its opponent’s implied total; a negative number, more points. If a team holds an opponent below its implied total, that’s a win; if a team allows an opponent to hit expectations, that’s a loss.
The #Sacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten a lot of love this season, but the Chargers defense has been almost as good with a league-high +4.73 Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus. The Chargers have Pro Football Focus’ two highest-ranked edge pass rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, and even without No. 1 cornerback Jason Verrett (knee, Injured Reserve) the Chargers have three starting corners in Casey Hayward, Trevor Williams, and Desmond King with top-15 PFF grades at the position. During their recent 5-2 run to charge back into the AFC West race, the Chargers have held opponents to 15.57 PPG.
I don’t know about you, but whenever I’m depressed about being the No. 1 cornerback on a team that has lost six straight games and used to have a good secondary but doesn’t anymore, I try to make myself feel better by ripping the chain off of Michael Crabtree‘s neck and throwing a punch at his head while I’m wearing a helmet and he isn’t — but that’s just me (and Aqib Talib). There’s no getting around this: The Broncos are bad. They were No. 1 in defensive DVOA each of the past two seasons, but this year they (and especially the secondary) are getting destroyed by seemingly every quarterback on the planet — most notably Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, and Paxon Lynch. Although the Broncos have had a stout pass defense since the 2014 arrival of Talib (who is now suspended for two games), this year they’ve allowed an NFL-high 24 touchdowns receiving. Their defense is overmatched without former coordinator Wade Phillips. They are dead last with a -4.77 Vegas Opponent Plus/Minus and have allowed opposing teams to hit their implied totals in a league-worst eight of 11 games.
Over/Under Differential
Offensive production within an NFL contest is often correlated across teams. As a result, many sharp DFS players stack games (instead of just teams) in guaranteed prize pools. To highlight teams that tend to play in games that fall short of or surpass the Vegas total, I’ve created an Over/Under Differential metric. A positive number means that a team on average participates in games that hit the over; a negative number, the under.
The Texans lead the league with a juicy +9.23 Over/Under Differential, but that number contains data from the 6.5 games quarterbacked by Deshaun Watson and is no longer representative. In the five games started by Tom Savage, the Texas have a 1-4 over/under record.
The Lions are first with their 8-3 over/under record and second (behind the Texans) with their +5.82 Over/Under Differential. The Lions have hit their implied total in an elite nine of 11 games, but their defense has allowed a high-ish 24 PPG. The combination of those two units could continue to drive Lions games to the over.
Spread Differential
The point spread is the go-to number for Vegas and DFS, as it is predictive of game script and outcome. I’ve created a Spread Differential metric so we can see how teams have done on a PPG basis relative to the spread. A positive number means that a team on average overperforms the spread; a negative number, underperforms.
As you’d probably expect (given how proficiently the Eagles have scored points and how disastrously the Broncos have allowed them), Philly has a league-high +10.05 Spread Differential and is great against the spread (ATS) at 9-2; Denver has a league-low -7.55 Spread Differential and is horrid ATS at 2-8-1. In fact, the Broncos are almost historically bad. It’s the squarest of square moves to bet on the Eagles and against the Broncos right now — but those ATS records are supported by tempting Spread Differentials.
Here’s the obligatory Browns blurb. Although they don’t have the league’s worst Spread Differential at -4.59, they do have the worst ATS record at 2-9: As they’ve done for many years, the Browns have shown a talent for losing games they could win (or at least cover). Under head coach Hue Jackson the Browns are 1-26 straight up. The good news is that wide receiver Josh Gordon is returning this week and will play “as much as possible” (per Jackson). The bad news is that Gordon’s ownership will likely be inflated, and the Browns are last in the league with 15.09 PPG. They’re also facing the Chargers, who are stacked in the secondary and have allowed opponents to hit their implied totals in a league-low three games. In the words of Gimli, “You could’ve picked a better spot.”
The Week 13 Data Donkey
The Redskins are +1.0 road underdogs at AT&T Stadium even though they have a +0.41 Spread Differential while the Cowboys have a -3.91.
The Vikings are +3.0 road dogs in Atlanta. They have a +5.27 Spread Differential; the Falcons, -1.73.
The Dolphins are +1.0 home dogs against the Broncos, who (as previously noted) are last in the league with a -7.55 Spread Differential. The ‘Fins have the NFL’s second-worst mark at -6.36.
The Jets opened as +4.5 home dogs against the Chiefs. The line is now +3.0. The Jets have a +2.56 Spread Differential; the Chiefs, -0.14.
Burn your money.
Research the Week 13 games for yourself with our Tools and Models.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
