Week 12 presents us with the popular three-game Thanksgiving slate. Luckily, there are some interesting turkey day matchups in each of the three games this year. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
Thanksgiving Notables
Stefon Diggs vs. Quandre Diggs
St. Diggs took a backseat in Week 11, as Patrick Peterson played exceptionally well against him in the slot. However, this week, it is unlikely that the Lions shadow corner, Darius Slay, will follow him into the slot. Slay has rarely played in the slot this season and generally follows an opposing receiver only to the outside. We should expect Adam Thielen to see plenty of Slay.
This week, Diggs is expected to run most of his routes against Quandre, who has played 99 percent of his snaps in the slot and has been a friend to DFS players. He has Pro Football Focus’ 10th-lowest coverage grade this season and ranks in the bottom 15 in fantasy points per route. If healthy, Stef Diggs (knee) should be able to torch the other Diggs. It is important to pay attention to Stef’s health, as he has been much less effective when playing at less than full strength. Be sure to monitor Stef’s status with the FantasyLabs News feed. Diggs is the No. 2 FanDuel WR in the Levitan Player Model.
Detroit Receivers vs. Vikings Corners
As mentioned earlier this year, the Vikings cornerbacks matchup surprisingly well with the Detroit receiving group. Xavier Rhodes is likely to eliminate Marvin Jones from the boundary in this game. Captain Munnerlyn matches up very well with Anquan Boldin in the slot. Finally, we should expect to see Terence Newman covering Golden Tate, so long as Newman (neck) is active. All three of these cornerbacks have top-25 PFF coverage grades. Eric Ebron and Tate should find the most success of the receiving group, but it’s tough sledding for everyone. Tate is higher-rated than Jones in all of our Pro Models.
UPDATE: Newman is officially doubtful. If he’s ruled out, then Tate gets a big boost.
Dez Bryant vs. Josh Norman and/or Bashaud Breeland
The X is back. Dez now has 196 yards receiving and three touchdowns over his last two games.
There are reports that Norman will not shadow Dez. If Norman stays at the LCB spot, then Dez will run the majority of his routes away from him. It’s a little unbelievable that the Redskins will let Norman spend his day babysitting Terrance Williams, but stranger things have happened. While Norman has not been quite as invincible as he was in Carolina, he still ranks as PFF’s No. 5 coverage corner this season. If Dez is actually given the opportunity to run most of his routes against Breeland, it would be a major upgrade.
Jamison Crowder vs. Orlando Scandrick
While Crowder has struggled to see consistent volume this season, he continues to exceed expectations. On Thanksgiving, Crowder will tee off against Scandrick, who has yielded the sixth-most fantasy points per route run this season. Crowder is expected to be a chalky option on the slate, as he has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of 17-20 percent on FanDuel.
Antonio Brown vs. Vontae Davis
We should expect to see shadow coverage from Davis on Thursday, but that’s not really a concern. Davis was consistently burned in his Week 11 outing, as he looked legitimately hobbled all game. Expect Brown to make quick work of him, if he is able to suit up for this game. If Davis is unable to play, keep in mind that the Colts defense is 29th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average and should be easily exploitable by Brown. The only downside for Brown is that his spot this week is similar to his spot in Week 11: Running back Le’Veon Bell should see lots of success against a bad rushing defense. Brown has far and away the highest projected ceiling of all receivers on the Thanksgiving slate.
The Studs
Julio Jones vs. Patrick Peterson
Week 12 brings us what might be the best WR/CB matchup of the 2016 season. Peterson has arguably been the best CB in the NFL this season, as he has chased receivers all over the formation and continued to limit them. After watching Peterson shut down Diggs in the slot in Week 11, we should expect to see him follow Julio there this week. Peterson is allowing only 0.19 fantasy points per route, a bottom-10 mark this season.
Many will look at Julio’s 2014 game log against Peterson and laugh. Julio caught 10 passes for 189 yards and a TD while being shadowed by Peterson. However, Peterson was later diagnosed with diabetes and in 2014 was playing at 10-20 pounds heavier than he should have been. This is a different Peterson.
This is a downgrade for Julio. However, we have seen Julio smash expectations against other elite cornerbacks in the past. He has had success against Norman, Richard Sherman, and others. Ultimately, everyone should make sure they get the opportunity to enjoy this matchup because it is going to be fun.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Joe Haden
Haden was once an elite shutdown cornerback, but he has not played at that level this season. He has a bottom-25 PFF coverage grade and has been banged up most of this season. That being said, OBJ has been pretty inconsistent over the last few weeks, clearing 50 receiving yards only once. He does, however, have three TDs in the span. The matchup is not a concern, as Beckham has our second-highest ceiling projection of all DraftKings WRs in the main slate.
Mike Evans vs. Richard Sherman
The Bears have shown the NFL that Evans can be eliminated if teams scheme against him. This week, he gets to face off against one of the most elite shadow corners in the league. Sherman has been following opposing receivers around the formation this season, limiting them to 0.20 fantasy points per route. With Earl Thomas lurking, we should expect Evans to be a target for tight coverage and heavy hits. Just ask Rob Gronkowski. Sherman and the Seahawks present a major downgrade for Evans.
Notable Upgrade
Amari Cooper vs. Daryl Worley
The Panthers strongest cornerback this season has been James Bradberry, who has really come on over the past few weeks. However, Bradberry should spend the majority of his day covering Michael Crabtree, opposite from Cooper. While Bradberry has played well, Worley has struggled this season. Cooper is likely to run nearly 60 percent of his routes against Worley.
Notable Downgrade
Rishard Matthews vs. Tracy Porter
While Tracy Porter has not been the sole reason for the Bears stout WR1 coverage, he has been a major part of it. The Bears have been using Porter in shadow coverage plus bracket coverage to eliminate opposing WR1s. The Bears have held Evans and OBJ to under 70 yards in back-to-back games. Look for Matthews to draw Porter’s coverage this week.
