This piece will identify some of my favorite DFS stacks of the weekend. Be sure to use our Stacking tool found within our Player Models to find the highest projected stacks, the stacks that figure to be chalky and more. Our Correlations page is also a great resource to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver
- Matt Ryan ($6700 DraftKings, $7900 FanDuel)
- Calvin Ridley ($6500 DraftKings, $6700 FanDuel)
It’s time to trust the Atlanta offense again. Outside of Week 7 when he was injured, and the Week 10 win over the Saints, Matt Ryan has thrown for 300-plus yards in eight consecutive games. Last week, against a strong Carolina pass defense, Ryan totaled 311 passing yards with a 68% completion percentage.
Atlanta returns home to face the league’s third-most generous pass defense per DVOA. Tampa Bay simply cannot limit opposing quarterbacks, allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers. The Buccaneers have allowed a Top-10 fantasy quarterback performance in seven of their last eight games and have allowed a whopping 14 passing touchdowns in the Tampa Bay’s last four games.
Not surprisingly, the Buccaneers have also been roasted by opposing wide receivers. Tampa Bay has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wideouts, more than six points more than the second-worst team, Minnesota.
I recommend stacking Ryan with second-year Falcons wide receiver, Calvin Ridley. With tight end Austin Hooper again ruled out in Week 12, Ridley should make the most of a repeatedly high target share. Ridley played his first NFL game without Hooper on the field and finished with the overall WR3 performance last week. He tallied eight receptions on eight targets, 143 receiving yards and one touchdown.
It will be hard to pivot off All-Pro wideout Julio Jones, but the price difference ($1500 more DK, $1300 more on FD) makes this the more attractive stack.
This game has the highest over/under (51.5) of the slate and is certainly makes sense to stack Ryan at home against one of the league’s worst pass defenses.
Running Back + DEF/Special Teams
- Miles Sanders ($5000 DraftKings, $5600 FanDuel)
- Eagles D/ST ($2500 DraftKings, $3200 FanDuel)
Call this a “post-hype” DFS play.
With fellow running back Jordan Howard ruled out last week, many fantasy owners expected a big Week 11 performance by Miles Sanders. However, the rookie running back only produced 47 total yards on 11 carries and two receptions.
The Seattle defense is a far cry from the New England defense, particularly against the run. The Seahawks rank just 16th best in run defense efficiency, while also allowing an average of five receptions and 45 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. Seattle defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is also questionable for this game with a sore hip.
Sanders’ average of 6.2 yards per touch ranks fifth at the position and he has an average of three targets per game over Philadelphia’s past six contests.
With the rumor of Jordan Howard’s potential return, Sanders’ ownership should be significantly suppressed coming off a poor performance. But at his low price point, Sanders will simply need his usual workload to potentially hit three times value.
The contrarian play here is an Eagles defense that is much improved over the past few weeks.
Jim Schwartz’s defense can certainly rush the passer and the Eagles have tallied 13 sacks in their prior two homes games before New England last week. This is problematic for a Seattle offensive line that ranks 21st in run blocking and 20th in pass blocking per Football Outsiders. Seattle has allowed 36 quarterback sacks and the seventh-most QB hits.
The Eagles’ defense has only allowed an average of 187 passing yards per game with a total of three passing touchdowns over the last four contests. Last week, Philadelphia held Tom Brady without a passing touchdown.
At only $2500 on DK and $3200 on FD, the Eagles’ defense is a sneaky contrarian play against Russell Wilson. However, with a stout run defense, healthy secondary, and improved pass rush, Philadelphia could easily justify their low price point with extremely low ownership.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Baker Mayfield ($5900 DraftKings, $7500 FanDuel)
- Odell Beckham Jr. ($7000 DraftKings, $7000 FanDuel)
- DeVante Parker ($5200 DraftKings, $6000 FanDuel)
This lines up as the perfect blow-up game for Cleveland wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. The first-year Browns wideout has continued to receive volume despite a lack of production. Beckham ranks sixth in wide receiver target share, eighth in yards after the catch, and eight in target separation. (PlayerProfiler). Yet, Beckham still only ranks 37th at the position with 12.3 fantasy points per game.
After watching Buffalo top wideout John Brown tally nine receptions, 137 yards, and two touchdowns last week in Miami, it is easy to speculate that this could be a change for Beckham to improve on his seasonal total of just one receiving touchdown. The Browns’ lead wideout has seen 22 targets over the past two games.
Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield is also in an ideal smash spot. Miami has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Mayfield has improved his fantasy finish in each of the past four weeks, with six touchdowns and just one interception over that span.
The Browns should have their most robust group of offensive weapons with tight end David Njoku potentially returning from injury, and both wideout Rashard Higgins and pass-catching running back now fully integrated into the offense.
Miami receiver DeVante Parker has seen high target volume in the two games since teammate Preston Williams’ season-ending injury. Parker has seen 20 targets during that time period, producing the overall WR10 performance last week in a difficult matchup with Buffalo’s cornerback Tre’Davious White. Tethered to gunslinger quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, Parker has managed to rank Top 20 in deep targets with four touchdown catches.
Parker and Mayfield provide the chance for salary savings that allows DFS players the change to squeeze Christian McCaffrey and/or Michael Thomas into lineups. If we follow the old adage of “chase the opportunity,” this stack produces three players who have high-volume projections in Week 12.
