Our NFL product at FantasyLabs is powered by our Models, which feature projections from Sean Koerner. He’s been FantasyPros’ most accurate in-season ranker in three of the past four seasons, which makes our Models a must-have for the serious DFS player.
One of the best ways to incorporate his projections is by looking at each player’s Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Projected Plus/Minus is a proprietary metric that measures projected points vs. expected points. The higher the number, the better that player is expected to perform relative to his price tag.
If you wind up rostering players who finish the week with a good Plus/Minus, there’s a good chance you’re going to find yourself at the top of the leaderboards.
Here are six players who are popping as values in our NFL Models for Week 10.
Quarterback
Carson Wentz ($5,600 on DraftKings) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Wentz has struggled recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past four games on DraftKings. That’s caused his salary to drop to just $5,600, which makes him an interesting buy-low target vs. the Seattle Seahawks. It’s a solid matchup, giving Wentz an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.70 on DraftKings.
Wentz also stands out from a Vegas perspective. The total on this game currently sits at 48 points, which is the second-highest mark on the slate. The Eagles are also slight home favorites, and Wentz has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.91 in comparable situations (per the Trends tool). He’s a nice option if you’re looking to pay down a bit at the position.
Running Back
Leonard Fournette ($7,000 on FanDuel) @ Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars don’t stand out as an obvious target this week. They have a subpar matchup vs. the Titans, who rank just 26th in pace in neutral game scripts. The Jaguars rank 31st in that department, so expect this to be one of the slowest games of the week. The total is set at just 41.5 points, and the Jaguars’ implied team total of 19 points is one of the lowest marks on the slate.
Still, it’s impossible to ignore Fournette on FanDuel, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He remains an absolute workhorse on the ground, ranking first in the league in rushing market share (89.7%). He’s also highly involved in the passing game, logging an average of 5.8 targets and 4.7 receptions per game. The only thing he hasn’t done this season is score touchdowns, despite the fact that he ranks fourth among RBs in red zone opportunities. If he can see some regression in that department, he has the potential for a big game.
Phillip Lindsay ($5,400 on DraftKings) @ Buffalo Bills
The Broncos are another team that don’t stand out as an obvious target. That said, Lindsay looks like a clear value at his current price tag. He largely split opportunities with Royce Freeman through the first nine weeks, but he emerged as the clear lead option in Week 11. He out-snapped Freeman 52 to 24 and out-touched Freeman 18 to 9. Pregame reports stated that the Broncos would lean on Lindsay in Week 11, and it seems likely that he’ll be looking at a similar workload vs. the Bills.
The Broncos are currently implied for just 16.8 points and are four-point underdogs on the road, neither of which really bodes well for success. That said, those numbers undersell this matchup vs. the Bills. They currently rank just 27th in rush defense DVOA, and Lindsay owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.00 on DraftKings.
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones ($8,400 on FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jones is one of the most expensive options at the position, but he still stands out as one of the best values. He’s a particularly strong option on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94%.
He has an elite matchup vs. the Bucs, who have hemorrhaged fantasy points to opposing WRs all season. Jones owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.2 on FanDuel, and they’ve been dreadful against superstar caliber WRs in particular. They’ve faced three wideouts with a salary between $7,400 and $9,400 this season, and those players have averaged 30.27 FanDuel points and a 100% Consistency Rating.
The Falcons also rank second on the slate with an implied team total of 28 points, and Jones has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.09 with a comparable implied team total at home.
N’Keal Harry ($3,300 on DraftKings) vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Patriots passing game is a huge question mark heading into their showdown with the Cowboys. Tom Brady has looked like a shell of himself in his past two contests, and he’s currently listed as questionable with a right elbow injury. He’s tentatively expected to play, but there’s no guaranteed he’ll be able to live up to his usual high standards.
The bigger question mark is with their WRs. Julian Edelman, Mohamed Sanu, and Phillip Dorsett are all listed as questionable with various maladies. Edelman is expected to suit up — he’s played through questionable tags for most of the season — but Dorsett is a true game-time decision and Sanu seems closer to doubtful. You’ll want to make sure to monitor the news prior to kickoff.
If Dorsett and Sanu are unable to suit up, Harry will likely enter the starting lineup. He was a first-round draft pick for the Pats and was widely considered the top WR prospect in fantasy circles heading into the draft. Harry checks literally all the boxes according to Player Profiler: 89th percentile College Dominator Rating, 95th percentile breakout age, 98th percentile SPARQ score. He would be a very interesting option at just $3,300 if he gets the opportunity to play more. He played roughly 43% of the Pats’ offensive snaps last week and ultimately finished with three catches for 18 yards.
Tight End
Vance McDonald ($3,500 on DraftKings) @ Cincinnati Bengals
TE is a pretty uninspiring position this week. Travis Kelce is on a bye. George Kittle and Mark Andrews are not available on the main slate. Austin Hooper is hurt.
With that in mind, paying down at the position is not a bad idea. McDonald is someone who stands out from a matchup and injury perspective. JuJu Smith-Schuster has already been ruled out, and he leads the Steelers in terms of target market share this season. That could result in a few additional targets for McDonald vs. the Bengals, who have been dreadful defensively. They currently rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, and McDonald owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.5 on DraftKings.
Pictured: Patriots WR N’Keal Harry
Photo Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
