The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: things like salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our Models and take a look at some of the players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 10 NFL slate.
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Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Patrick Mahomes @ TB — $8,000 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Mahomes has put together a wonderful 2020 season. He’s posted an adjusted yards per attempt of 9.3 while tossing 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He leads the league in QBR and has moved to a -125 favorite to win the MVP on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Unsurprisingly, he’s also put together a dominant fantasy campaign. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.56 this season, and he’s scored at least 25.52 DraftKings points in each of his past three games.
Mahomes does have a tough matchup this week vs. the Buccaneers – they rank second in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA – but Mahomes is as matchup-proof as they come.
Top Value: Josh Allen vs. LAC — $7,600 on DraftKings, $8,600 on FanDuel
Allen doesn’t have the same name value as Mahomes quite yet, but he’s definitely in a better spot this week. He’s taking on the Los Angeles Chargers, who have been an excellent matchup for quarterbacks this season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.6 on DraftKings, which is one of the best marks at the position.
The Bills are also implied for 29.0 points, which is the second-highest mark on the slate. Allen has only played in four career games with an implied team total of at least 27.0 points, so this is nearly unprecedented for him from a Vegas perspective. Allen thrives around the goal line – he’s scored 22 rushing touchdowns through his first 37 games – so more opportunities in that area should lead to fantasy success.
Top Ownership: Kyler Murray @ NE — $8,200 on DraftKings, $9,100 on FanDuel
Allen is expected to be the highest-owned QB this week, but Murray could challenge for that designation. His ability to produce with his legs is virtually unmatched at the position. He’s averaged 61.9 rushing yards and 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game this season, which gives him an average of 12.19 fantasy points at the position before factoring in any of his passing production. That gives him an elite ceiling, but it also gives him one of the safest floors at the position. Overall, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his first 10 games this season.
His matchup this week vs. the Patriots is a bit of a mixed bag. On one hand, the Patriots have been one of the worst defensive teams in football this season. On the other, they’ve also played at one of the slowest paces. That means the Cardinals’ defense will likely have a big say in Murray’s fantasy production. Murray should feast if they can get the Patriots’ offense off the field quickly, but New England could drain the clock if they’re able to sustain drives.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Dalvin Cook vs. CAR — $9,500 on DraftKings, $11,000 on FanDuel
Cook has been a fantasy monster recently, and his salary has moved into rarified air at the RB position. He’s been priced up to $11,000 on FanDuel, which is a price that very few players have reached previously. Only Christian McCaffrey, Todd Gurley, and Le’Veon Bell have been priced at $10,000 or higher since the start of the 2016-17 season. Those players have posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.25 when priced above $10,000, so the astronomical price tag hasn’t stopped them from becoming solid values (per the Trends tool).
Cook has joined this elite group thanks to his monstrous workload. He’s logged at least 27 rushing attempts in three of his past four contests, and he’s also averaged 3.5 targets per game over that time frame. Cook also carries one of the largest workloads around the goal line, so it’s not surprising that he’s scored seven touchdowns over his past four games either.
He should have no problems against a Carolina defense that ranks just 22nd in terms of rush defense DVOA this season. The Vikings are also 3.5-point home favorites, so this sets up well from a game script perspective as well.
Top Value: Salvon Ahmed @ NYJ — $5,100 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
Ahmed has taken over as the Dolphins’ feature back with Myles Gaskin out of the lineup recently. He’s played on at least 66% of their offensive snaps each of the past two weeks, and he’s finished with the vast majority of their rushing attempts. He logged just 12 carries last week vs. the Broncos, but the Dolphins were behind for most of that contest. No other RB on the roster had more than two carries, so don’t let the low mark scare you.
The Dolphins are taking on the Jets this week, and this should be a much better matchup for Ahmed. The Dolphins are favored by seven points despite being on the road, so he should carry a much larger workload if this game goes according to plan.
That said, make sure to monitor Ahmed’s status heading into the weekend. Ahmed was unable to practice on Thursday, and Gaskin is eligible to come off the IR.
Top Ownership: Kalen Ballage @ BUF — $5,800 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
The Chargers backfield has been ravished by injuries this season. They are expected to get Austin Ekeler back in the near future, but expect Ballage to be extremely chalky if Ekeler is unable to suit up.
He’s carried a pretty massive workload for the Chargers over the past two weeks, averaging 17 carries and 7.5 targets per game. He hasn’t exactly crushed from an efficiency standpoint over that time frame, but it’s hard to pass up that kind of volume at such a minimal price tag. He’s particularly appealing this week on FanDuel, where his $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Stefon Diggs vs. LAC — $7,600 on DraftKings, $7,900 on FanDuel
Davante Adams is not available on the main slate this week, which means someone else can grab this spot in our NFL Models. There are a bunch of strong candidates, but Diggs owns a slight edge. He’s put together an excellent first season with the Bills and has been a target monster recently, logging at least eight targets in each of his past five games. He’s only managed two touchdowns over that time frame, but he’s still posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in four of those contests.
Diggs should benefit from this matchup vs. Chargers. He doesn’t stand out from an Opponent Plus/Minus perspective, but he has thrived in games with a comparable implied team total this season. He’s played in five games with the Bills with an implied team total of at least 25.0 points, and he’s averaged 20.8 FanDuel points in those contests.
Top Value: Denzel Mims vs. MIA — $3,500 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel
Mims stands out as one of the best values on the slate on DraftKings, where his $3,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s seen eight targets in back-to-back weeks, and those targets have typically been down the field. He racked up 47.89% of the Jets’ total air yards in Week 11, which gives him one of the best Weighted Opportunity Ratings (WOPR) at the position.
The biggest question with Mims is if Sam Darnold returning to the lineup at QB will help or hinder his fantasy value. The easy answer is that it should help, but Joe Flacco has been better than Darnold in virtually every category across the board this season.
Top Ownership: Andy Isabella @ NE — $3,000 on DraftKings, $4,700 on FanDuel
Expect guys like Diggs and Keenan Allen to command significant ownership at the top of the pricing spectrum, but Isabella should be chalky as a punt play. Larry Fitzgerald will not play in Week 12 after testing positive for COVID-19, and Isabella figures to be the biggest beneficiary. Fitzgerald has played 87% of his snaps in the slot this season, and Isabella has played 86% of his snaps in the slot as well. He seems like a direct replacement.
Isabella has also averaged 1.81 fantasy points per opportunity over the past year, so he has the potential to take advantage of an increased workload.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce @ TB — $7,000 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
Kelce has been dominant over his past three games, scoring at least 27.9 DraftKings points in all three contests. When he’s producing like that, no one at the TE position can keep up with him. Only one player in our NFL Models has a ceiling projection that is within 10 points of Kelce’s (Darren Waller), and his projection is still roughly five points lower.
The Bucs aren’t a great matchup for Kelce, but the Chiefs offense can put up points against anyone. They’re currently implied for 29.25 points, which is the top mark on the slate.
Top Value: Anthony Firkser @ IND — $2,600 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel
Kelce technically owns the top projected Plus/Minus in addition to the top ceiling, but he’s definitely expensive. If you’re looking to go a little cheaper at the position, Firkser stands out as a solid option. He’s particularly appealing at $2,600 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Jonnu Smith is still a factor at the TE position in Tennessee, but Firkser has actually seen more targets than Smith over the past five weeks. He’s seen at least five targets in two of his past three games, including two targets in the red zone last week vs. the Ravens.
Top Ownership: Darren Waller @ ATL — $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel
Waller isn’t quite as expensive as Kelce, which could make him the higher-owned option of the two. He also has a significant matchup advantage vs. the Falcons. They’ve been dreadful this season against the pass, ranking just 26th in pass defense DVOA, and Waller owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.7 on DraftKings.
Waller also remains the focal point of the Raiders passing game, ranking first on the team in targets, receptions, and yards per game.
Pictured above: Denzel Mims #11 of the New York Jets
Photo credit: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
