Week 10’s wide receiver/cornerback matchups were highlighted by chalk-busting letdowns from both Antonio Brown and Marvin Jones, two-touchdown days from Devin Funchess and Robert Woods, as well as explosive performances by the Vikings’ dynamic duo of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
Blue Chips
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce vs. Giants Secondary
Kelce is obviously a fantasy tight end, but, as head coach Andy Reid said back in training camp, “He can basically do everything a wide receiver can do.” Kelce is rated higher than any other wide receiver as a flex option in Adam Levitan’s Pro Model, and for good reason: He’s one of just 27 tight ends and receivers to average at least 7.5 targets per game through 10 weeks, and he faces the Giants — the nirvana of tight end defenses:
- Cameron Brate: 6 targets, 4-80-1
- Garrett Celek: 6 tgts, 4-67-1
- Eric Ebron: 5 tgts, 5-42-1
- Zach Ertz: 10 tgts, 8-55-1
- Jimmy Graham: 6 tgts, 3-51-1
- Jason Witten: 9 tgts, 7-59-1
The Giants rank among the bottom-two defenses in average DraftKings points per game (PPG), Plus/Minus, Consistency Rating, and Upside Rating allowed to tight ends this season (per our Trends tool). Kelce joins T.Y. Hilton and Julio Jones as the only players to top 100 yards on nine separate occasions since the beginning of last season.
Hill may not have as juicy a matchup as Kelce, but his game-breaking speed could certainly come in handy against a Giants defense that’s one of just five units to allow at least 35 passes of 20-plus yards this season. Overall, they’ve given up 280-plus passing yards in five of their last six games after allowing opponents to clear that threshold just four times all of last season. The days of fearing Janoris Jenkins seem to be over, as Jenkins and his backup, Ross Cockrell, rank among PFF’s bottom-five corners in yards allowed per cover snap over the past five weeks. Hill will look to continue to ball out away from Arrowhead Stadium, as he’s averaged the second-most DraftKings PPG among all wide receivers on the road since entering the league.
The Chiefs are currently implied to score 27.25 points – the third-highest mark in Week 11. Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Kelce and/or Hill with Alex Smith on Sunday.
DeVante Parker vs. Buccaneers Secondary
The Dolphins’ 6’3″ and 209-pound beast appears to be fully over his ankle injury after playing on 89 percent of the team’s snaps last Monday night. Jay Cutler has continued to feed Parker, as he already has as many games with eight-plus targets (five) as he did in 2015 and 2016 combined. He’s benefited from particularly fantasy-friendly targets, leading the Dolphins in average target distance and ranking second in targets inside the 10-yard line per game.
The Bucs’ group of undersized corners will have their hands full with “Faster Alshon.” All three of Brent Grimes, Vernon Hargreaves (hamstring, questionable), and Robert McClain (hamstring, questionable) are 5’10” or shorter. This lack of size could be exploited by Parker’s incredible contested catch ability:
Parker’s $6,500 price tag on DraftKings is higher than his marks the last two weeks, but it’s still below his early-season average prior to his injury. Be sure to monitor our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see if Parker’s increased price leads to reduced ownership across different contest sizes.
Brandin Cooks vs. Raiders Secondary
Cooks is averaging fewer targets per game (7.2) than he has since his rookie season, but it’s hard to imagine a better matchup for the No. 1 receiver in the Patriots’ fourth-ranked scoring offense. Overall, the Raiders’ league-worst defense in pass DVOA has allowed league-high marks in quarterback rating and completion rate. Slot corner T.J. Carrie has earned PFF’s 20th-highest grade among all corners this season, but the defense doesn’t offer another defensive back graded higher than 60th. Hill, Jermaine Kearse, and Mike Wallace have all posted 19-plus DraftKings points against the Raiders this season.
The loss of first-round pick Gareon Conley (shin, IR) and potential absence of David Amerson (foot, questionable) certainly won’t help the secondary against Tom Brady‘s mechanically-efficient attack. Brady ranks among the top-three quarterbacks in both deep ball and red zone attempts per game, giving Cooks and company plenty of opportunities to make plays against the Raiders’ zone-heavy defense. Only the Buccaneers have been worse than the Raiders at getting to the quarterback through 10 weeks, and Cooks stands to continue to benefit from Chris Hogan‘s (shoulder, questionable) potential absence considering he saw a season-high 11 targets last week.
Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard throughout the week to view Hogan’s daily practice participation and game status designation.
Potential Fades
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Cardinals Secondary
Any conversation about a wide receiver facing the Cardinals must begin with one question: Who is Patrick Peterson guarding? This week’s answer is none other than Hopkins, who is smaller (6’1″ and 214 pounds vs. 6’0″ and 219 pounds) and slower (4.57 40-yard dash vs. 4.34) than Peterson. Of course, Nuk regularly gives up these physical advantages to other corners, but Peterson isn’t your everyday corner. He’s fearless in sitting on underneath routes and competes for every single pass thrown his way:
A corner’s No. 1 job is to stop his man from catching the ball, and Peterson leads all cornerbacks by allowing just one reception every 29.7 coverage snaps. He could find himself tested on a down-by-down basis for the first time this season against Hopkins, who has seen a league-high 106 targets through 10 weeks – including 30 over his past two games with Tom Savage. This is nothing new, as Nuk has averaged 12.75 targets in his eight career games with Savage under center.
A shadow date with the league’s best corner is far from ideal, although Nuk could avoid him for at least a bit considering he’s averaged 12.6 snaps from the slot in three games since the Texans’ Week 7 bye compared to 6.5 snaps in Weeks 1-6. Still, his upside remains minimal in a Savage-led offense that has scored 21 total points in 10 quarters of football this season. Hopkins also likely won’t benefit from the presence of field-stretcher Will Fuller (ribs, doubtful). This opens up a ‘punt’ opportunity for Bruce Ellington ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel), who had 16 targets over the past two weeks with Fuller in the lineup. The 34-year-old Tramon Williams will work opposite Peterson and has been only a moderate upgrade over Justin Bethel, who the Cardinals benched after he allowed a league-high six touchdowns through Week 7.
Sterling Shepard vs. Chiefs Secondary
Shepard’s status as the No. 1 receiver on a team that has seemingly given up on the season should give him a decent weekly garbage-time floor at worst. His matchup against a Chiefs defense allowing the most DraftKings PPG to wide receivers this season looks great on paper, but the defense he’ll face Sunday isn’t the same one that allowed the majority of that production:
- Weeks 1-7: 283.9 pass yards, 1.9 touchdowns, 0.7 interceptions, 7.8 yards per attempt
- Weeks 8-9: 223.5 yards, 1.5 TDs, 1.5 INTs, 6.5 Y/A
Relatively tame matchups against the Broncos and Cowboys in Weeks 8-9 undoubtedly played a role in their improvement, but so has the presence of Steven Nelson and Kenneth Acker. They have taken over the slot and right cornerback positions since the Chiefs benched Phillip Gaines and Terrance Mitchell after Derek Carr shredded the Chiefs for 417 yards in Arrowhead. In a limited sample, Nelson and Acker have allowed 0.31 and 0.35 fewer yards per cover snap than the guys they replaced, respectively.
The Chiefs’ 28th-ranked defense in DVOA certainly has its fair share of holes, but the Giants’ 28th-ranked scoring offense might not have the firepower to exploit those deficiencies. Manning is averaging 0.52 fewer yards per attempt in 10 games without Odell Beckham Jr. since 2014, and a Giants offense currently implied to score 16.75 points doesn’t inspire much optimism.
Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins vs. Vikings Secondary
The Rams have been eating plenty of Ws recently thanks to their pair of Ws on the outside. Woods’ four touchdowns over the past two weeks are as many as he scored in 2015 and 2016 combined, while Watkins has managed to convert his last five targets into three receptions for 108 yards and two touchdowns. Still, the Vikings’ eighth-ranked defense in DVOA will be their toughest test in weeks, and they’ve been particularly rough on WR1s thanks to all-world cornerback Xavier Rhodes:
- Mike Evans: 12 targets, 7-67-0
- Davante Adams: 10 tgts, 5-54-1
- Antonio Brown: 11 tgts, 5-62-0
- Michael Thomas: 8 tgts, 5-45-0
- Josh Doctson: 7 tgts, 4-30-0
Rhodes’ true assignment won’t be known until game time, but Woods seems like his likely counterpart considering the Vikings’ tendency to place Rhodes on the opposition’s featured receiver as opposed to the field-stretcher. Watkins should see plenty of Trae Waynes, who has allowed the most touchdowns and yards per cover snap among the Vikings’ top-four corners. While Watkins has the talent to win that matchup, the next wide receiver to surpass 20 DraftKings points against the Vikings this season will be the first.
Honorable Mentions
- Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson vs. Dolphins Secondary: Ryan Fitzpatrick will have his full arsenal of weapons against the Dolphins’ 31st-ranked defense in pass DVOA. Fitzpatrick threw for just 187 yards and a touchdown against the Jets last week but now gets a Dolphins defense that is one of just four units to allow a quarterback rating over 100. Evans and D-Jax will work against a secondary that doesn’t have a cornerback graded among PFF’s top-50 defensive backs this season.
- Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree vs. Patriots Secondary: Based on past assignments, Cooper and Crabtree should mostly face off against Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore, respectively. Cooper has played double-digit snaps in the slot for three consecutive weeks after not surpassing that threshold once in Weeks 1-6, and he’s averaged 5.66 more targets per game than Crabtree over that span. They’ll face an ever-improving Patriots defense that has allowed fewer than 20 points in five consecutive games while limiting offenses to just 212 passing yards per game since Week 7.
- Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen vs. Rams Secondary: Diggs is fully healthy and averaging the sixth-most DraftKings PPG this season (minimum five games). Thielen’s floor is the roof considering he’s the only receiver in the league with at least five catches in every game. Still, Thielen in particular has a tough matchup against the Rams’ top-ranked defense in DVOA that boasts PFF’s No. 7 overall safety Lamarcus Joyner (hip, questionable) as well as slot corner Nickell Robey-Coleman, who ranks second among 32 full-time slot corners in fewest yards allowed per cover snap. Diggs could face shadow coverage from Trumaine Johnson, although Johnson has surrendered 14-plus DraftKings points to the likes of Dez Bryant, Marqise Lee, Pierre Garcon, and Hopkins this season.
- Michael Thomas vs. Redskins Secondary: Thomas finally broke the century mark last week, and he’s racked up at least seven receptions in six of his last seven games with all sorts of positive market share. While Diggs had his way with Josh Norman last week, the Redskins rank among the top-four defenses in lowest Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating allowed to receivers on DraftKings this season. Norman hasn’t shadowed all season, but Kendall Fuller and Bashaud Breeland have both made strides in their respective second and fifth seasons as full-time starters, ranking among the top-20 full-time corners in yards allowed per cover snap.
- A.J. Green vs. Broncos Secondary: Green hasn’t surpassed eight targets in a game since Week 5, and a non-gargantuan workload could be trouble against the Broncos’ “No Fly Zone.” The Broncos have allowed 121 points over their past 12 quarters against three of the league’s top-five scoring offenses but have a bounce-back opportunity at home against the Bengals’ 30th-ranked unit. Green has averaged a 4.3-44.7-0.3 line in three games against the Broncos since 2014.
- Julio Jones vs. Seahawks Secondary: Jones wasn’t bothered by the Legion of Boom last season, putting up a 7-139-1 line in Seattle and later going for 6-67-1 during the Falcons’ Divisional Round win. He’ll benefit from the absence of Richard Sherman (Achilles, IR), while Kam Chancellor (stinger, questionable) and Earl Thomas (hamstring, probable) are banged up as well. Jones is one of just three receivers to average over 20 DraftKings PPG on the road since 2014.
The Shadow Factor
Very few cornerbacks shadow a receiver for the entirety of a game due to various scheme factors from both the offense and defense. Still, there are candidates each week who could see a heavy dose of their snaps against a single corner, including:
- Marqise Lee vs. Jason McCourty
- DeAndre Hopkins vs. Patrick Peterson
- Stefon Diggs vs. Trumaine Johnson
- Robert Woods or Sammy Watkins vs. Xavier Rhodes
- Tyreek Hill vs. Janoris Jenkins
- Kelvin Benjamin vs. Casey Hayward
- Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree vs. Malcolm Butler and Stephon Gilmore
