Week 11 presents us with a unique situation: An outside cornerback will move into the nickel to cover an opposing team’s top receiving weapon. This is a rare scenario and one that requires extra scrutiny. Let’s break down this matchup and other notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
The Studs
Antonio Brown vs. Browns Secondary
After dealing with the slow-paced Cowboys in Week 10, Brown has a great matchup this week against one of the weakest passing defenses in football. The Browns are allowing the highest yards per attempt and the third-highest yards per completion in the NFL. According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), they rank 30th against WR1s. With Big Ben back healthy, Brown should continue to be an elite option; he is the highest-rated receiver in CSURAM88’s FanDuel Player Model.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Tracy Porter
Porter shadowed Mike Evans in Week 10, holding him to four catches for 66 yards. Further, 38 of those yards came on a broken scrambling play from Jameis Winston. Porter played great. That being said, he’s definitely been very up and down this season. He ranks 79th in coverage score according to Pro Football Focus; last week’s game may end up looking like an outlier for both Evans and Porter.
With the Bears playing much better against the run lately, they are funneling more production to the pass: They’ve allowed 100 or fewer rushing yards over their last three games to running backs. Also, the Giants can’t run the football. Look for Beckham to yet again be the focal point of the Giants’ offense; we shouldn’t expect Porter to limit him like he did with Evans.
A.J. Green vs. Bills Secondary
The Bills started this season expected to be stout on the outside and weaker in the middle of the field. To date, the Bills have played weak on the outside with Ronald Darby and Stephon Gilmore.
Both Gilmore and Darby have received coverage grades below 70 from PFF. Green spends the majority of his time on the outside and should therefore mostly match up with Darby and Gilmore. With their struggles, the Bills have now allowed a +2.3 Plus/Minus to opposing wide receivers over the last 12 months on DraftKings — the third-worst mark in the league. Consider this an upgrade for Green, although the Bengals offensive line may yet again struggle against the Bills’ top-ranked pass rush in Adjusted Sack Rate. Green should be considered only in GPPs after seeing what the Giants did to the Bengals last week.
Mike Evans vs. Chiefs Secondary
Evans was bodied by Porter in Week 11. Yes, Tracy Porter. While Porter played great, this is definitely a matchup that Evans should have won. It is important to remember that Evans is the sole offensive weapon on this team; opposing defenses would be smart to try and take him away.
This week, Evans should mostly avoid Marcus Peters, as he runs a higher percentage of his routes from Phillip Gaines’ side of the field. This is an upgrade for Evans, as Gaines grades as the fourth-worst qualifying cornerback this season according to PFF. Allen Robinson ran a similar percentage of routes at Gaines and recorded a 7-76-1 line recently. Evans currently has the highest-projected ceiling on both DK and FD this week.
Notable Upgrades
Jeremy Kerley vs. New England Slot Coverage
The Patriots rotate their cornerbacks all over the field, which means that no individual CB ends up playing the nickel for an entire game. However, while they have made rotations, they continue to be very susceptible to slot production. Doug Baldwin and Robert Woods recently torched them for a combined 16 catches for 221 yards and three touchdowns.
While Kerley isn’t a very exciting option, he has shown the potential to take advantage of plus matchups. The Cardinals have been similarly weak against slot receivers and, in his last two matchups with Arizona, Kerley has posted a combined line of 15-179-2. Kerley should have plenty of opportunities in catch-up mode to provide some fantasy scoring.
Donte Moncrief vs. Perrish Cox
Cox is a generous CB to DFS wide receivers and is fresh off of a game against Jordy Nelson, who went for a 12-126-1 line. Cox ranks 107th in coverage score according to PFF. Moncrief is running just over half of his routes on Cox’s side of the field and should receive plenty of opportunities, especially in the red zone.
Moncrief is a major part of the Colts’ red-zone offense: He has scored two red-zone touchdowns in two games since his return. Excluding the game in which he was injured, Moncrief has five red-zone targets over three full games. He is as good a bet as any receiver to score a touchdown this week.
Other Notable Upgrades
• Consider upgrading Allen Robinson against Detroit if Darius Slay misses this weekend.
• The entire receiving units of both the Saints and Panthers should be considered upgrades for Thursday night.
• Steve Smith is another notable upgrade, as he looks to face off against Orlando Scandrick, who has given up a top-five fantasy points per route mark against WRs this season.
Notable Downgrades
Stefon Diggs vs. Patrick Peterson
The most popular topic this week is going to be Diggs facing off against Peterson.
Bruce Arians has stated that Peterson will shadow Diggs this weekend. I’m calling this one a downgrade because it technically is — even though Peterson is not a slot cornerback. Peterson has had success against Diggs in the past, allowing him to catch one of six passes for seven yards in their previous meeting. However, Peterson has allowed touchdowns at almost four times his normal rate while playing in the slot (once every 6.1 targets, per PFF). This is a very unique situation and something that is not easy to diagnose. (Thanks to Scott Barrett and Rich Hribar for this info).
Ultimately, we should still prefer to play Diggs against Justin Bethel or any of the other replacement-level cornerbacks the Cardinals have been trotting out at the nickel. The Cardinals have given up fantasy production to plenty of slot options such as Kerley, Baldwin, Julian Edelman, and Adam Humphries. However, those games were played with Peterson on the outside. Peterson moving into the slot means that Marcus Cooper and Bethel will play on the outside; both have coverage grades of less than 50.0, per PFF. All in all, Peterson should be considered a downgrade for WRs but perhaps not nearly the downgrade that he would be if Diggs played on the outside.
Cameron Meredith vs. Janoris Jenkins / Eddie Royal vs. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
After a disastrous few weeks with Eli Apple, the Giants made a change in their secondary in Week 10. They began using Jenkins as a shadow cornerback with Apple on the other side. It seemed to work, as the Bengals receivers struggled all night. Meredith should see increased volume without Alshon Jeffery, but this is a very poor spot against Jenkins.
Royal looks set to face off against DRC in the slot. Rodgers-Cromartie ranks as PFF’s 11th-best coverage cornerback. He has played very well in the slot this season and has a serious size and speed advantage against Royal. Both Chicago WRs will be battling very tough matchups this week.
News Updates
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