The Week 11 NFL Dashboard
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Eagles at Seahawks
This week the Seahawks play at CenturyLink Field as 6.5-point favorites in a game with a 44-point Vegas total. The visiting Eagles are implied to score just 18.75 points — the second-lowest total of the slate. There’s a surprisingly strong chance of rain in Seattle but winds will be light and temperatures are forecasted to be quite mild.
Philadelphia Eagles
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Carson Wentz
Dude . . . there’s a rookie quarterback at Seattle. Rookie. QB. At. Seattle.
Although maybe playing in Seattle isn’t as bad it used to be. This season, QBs have averaged 18.65 DraftKings points and a +3.22 Plus/Minus with an average ownership of just 0.2 percent in large field guaranteed prize pools.
In fact, if you remove the murder of Blaine Gabbert that occurred at CenturyLink in September (6.0 DK points), opposing QBs have averaged 22.66 DK points in Seattle this season.
Wentz has thrown a total of two touchdowns in his last five games and has averaged just 10.56 DK points per game during that time. He’s extremely risky but if you’re willing to embrace the antifragile you could stack him with Darren Sproles, Jordan Matthews, and/or Zach Ertz in a GPP like the Millionaire Maker.
RB – Ryan Mathews
Doug Pederson reads FantasyLabs and hates me. That’s the only explanation for his RB usage the past four weeks. After carrying the ball a total of nine times the previous two weeks, Mathews was unleashed as the lead dog last Sunday, rushing 19 times and targeted twice. This starter’s share of work came immediately after Pederson named Darren Sproles — who carried the ball twice — the Eagles’ No. 1 RB. Alrighty then.
Mathews now has four touchdowns in three games. Predicting Eagles RB usage should be reserved for those in the land of weeping and gnashing of teeth, and the Seahawks have been stingy against the run in 2016, allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards (713) and 10th-fewest fantasy points per game (15.5) to RBs this season. Play Mathews at your own risk.
RB – Darren Sproles
Sproles is the anti-Mathews. After two weeks of dominating snaps and touches for the Eagles RBs he was relegated to complementary status last week. Even in the complementary role Sproles was targeted 10 times and has now been targeted 7.25 times per game over his last four games — indicating that he should stay involved in the offense no matter what his role is. Sproles’ involvement and production could increase in a game with a projected negative game script like the one against Seattle this week because of his pass-catching skills. Sproles has a 97 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel with a FantasyLabs projected ownership of one percent or less in the Sunday Million.
WR – Jordan Matthews
Matthews has been targeted a gigantic 35 times the past three games but has scored just one touchdown and hasn’t eclipsed 88 receiving yards in any of those games despite the plethora of recent volume. According to our Matchups tool, J-Matt should avoid Richard Sherman and instead see a healthy dose of slot cornerback Jeremy Lane, Seattle’s lowest-graded coverage corner (per Pro Football Focus). Matthews is currently a top-five FD WR in both the Bales and CSURAM88 Player Models.
Matthews (back) is officially questionable, but he practiced fully on Friday and is expected to play.
WR – Nelson Agholor
Agholor consistently gets volume and consistently does not produce with said volume. He has turned 22 targets into a total of 13.8 FD points over the past four weeks.
WR – Dorial Green-Beckham
I really try but DGB makes it so hard to love him. Green-Beckham flashed potential for a couple of weeks but he’s now gone back-to-back weeks with zero receptions and was not targeted at all last week. He has officially regained his status as the face-down lottery ticket in the grocery store parking lot: You really want to pick him up for the potential payoff — but you are continually disappointed by the results.
TE – Zach Ertz
Ertz is starting to turn things around: He’s had at least seven targets for at least six catches in two straight games. We’re projecting Ertz for zero to one percent ownership in both the Milly Maker and Sunday Million this week, and Ertz is something of a good Vegas spot, as tight ends playing as underdogs of four to seven points have traditionally crushed their salary-based expectations. If you’re going to get all contrarian this week, stacking Ertz with Wentz is an option.
Ertz (hamstring) is officially questionable, but he practiced fully on Friday and is expected to play.
Seattle Seahawks
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Russell Wilson
There aren’t many good reasons for Wilson’s extreme first/second-half seasonal splits, but they’re definitely something to consider. He’s had back-to-back excellent games, scoring 29.5 and 26.3 DK points against the Patriots and Bills. That said, those teams both rank very average defensively — 16th and 20th in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) — and this week is a much tougher test. The Eagles defense currently boasts the top-ranked DVOA and ranks first and 11th against the pass and the rush. However, the Eagles have shown that they can be beaten: They’ve given up at least 24 points in four of the last six games. Wilson is the second-highest rated QB in the Bales Model for FD, where he has five to eight percent projected ownership.
RB – C.J. Prosise
Prosise earned the lead back role in Seattle, so much so that the Seahawks promptly released Christine Michael. He showed nice versatility in his first start, rushing 17 times for 66 yards and also catching seven passes for 87 yards. Put simply, because of his talent, opportunity, and low price tags of $4,200 DK and $4,900 FD, he will be one of the chalkiest players of Week 11: He has ownership projections of 41-plus and 21-25 percent on DK and FD. That said, he’ll have to earn his production this week, as he’ll face a talented Eagles defense. Still, he’s an elite cash-game play because of his market share rates: He owned 65.38 percent of the Seahawks’ carries and got 19.44 percent of the targets in Week 10. And that was with Michael playing, albeit in limited time. It’s hard to fade Prosise in tournaments, but that 41-plus projected ownership mark on DK is very high.
RB – Thomas Rawls
Rawls is expected back in Week 11 after missing the last seven games with a leg injury. His return this week likely played a factor in Michael’s release. Per the FantasyLabs News feed, Rawls “will be eased back into action” and ESPN’s Chris Mortensen confirmed that Prosise will remain the starter. In Rawls’ two games this year, he was very unimpressive, rushing a total of 19 times for 25 yards. He could be a threat to steal some work from Prosise down the line, but he’ll likely be very limited this week and probably won’t hurt Prosise’s upside too much, if you’re concerned about that.
WR – Doug Baldwin
There aren’t many players as divisive as Baldwin: After getting consistent targets and doing almost nothing with them for five weeks in a row, he exploded in Week 10 for a 6-59-3 line. He showed last year that he can definitely produce in a big way when Wilson is right, but that notably came without TE Jimmy Graham in the fold. Baldwin consistently got open against a poor Patriots secondary — they rank 27th versus the pass — but will have a much harder time against Philly’s top-ranked pass defense. Baldwin will match up in the slot with safety Malcolm Jenkins, who has covered the slot for the Eagles since slot corner Ron Brooks got injured a couple of weeks ago. Jenkins has been excellent this year: He’s the 11th-ranked safety on PFF and has a coverage grade of 84.0. Baldwin has a top-five rating on both DK and FD in the Bales Model, but this is a very tough matchup.
WR – Jermaine Kearse
Per the Market Share Report, Kearse has owned 17.32 percent of the Seahawks’ targets (third on the team) and a whopping 29.02 percent of the Air Yards (first) over the past four games. We thought at the beginning of the year that these valuable targets would go to Graham or perhaps sophomore wideout Tyler Lockett, but Kearse has consistently received opportunities from Wilson down the field. He’s struggled converting those into fantasy production, but at the minimum $3,000 price tag he’s definitely worth a shot in tournaments. He has the easiest matchup of the Seahawks receivers this week, facing PFF’s 94th-ranked corner in Nolan Carroll.
WR – Tyler Lockett
Lockett definitely has a beatable matchup against CB Leodis McKelvin, but he just hasn’t consistently seen targets this year. He was targeted six times last week for the first time since Week 1, and it’s tough to imagine that he’ll see more than that, especially with Prosise getting a bigger piece of the target pie.
TE – Jimmy Graham
The Patriots are notorious for taking away a team’s best option and last week Baldwin reaped the benefits, as Graham was the focal point of the Pats defense. Graham is still a favorite of Wilson’s and owns 21.26 percent of his targets in the past month. That said, the Eagles rank third in the league against TEs this season. He has a top-three TE salary on both sites and should be reserved for GPPs given the tough matchup.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
