The Week 11 NFL Dashboard
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Buccaneers at Chiefs
The Buccaneers travel to Arrowhead Stadium in a matchup against the Chiefs that Vegas has at a low over/under of 44.5 points. Kansas City is a 7.5-point home favorite, implied to score 26 points; Tampa Bay has an implied score of just 18.5 points, the second-lowest total of the week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Writer: Tyler Buecher
QB – Jameis Winston
Winston could be in for a tough matchup. The Chiefs remain undefeated at home this season and are eighth against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Replacement (DVOA). While Winston is coming off a great game in which he threw for 300-plus yards (for just the fourth time in his career), he may have difficulty reaching that again in Week 11. Our Player Models have Winston with the lowest projected ceiling of the week on both DK and FD, making him a difficult player to roster.
RB – Doug Martin
Martin returned to action last week for the first time since Week 2. He finished with 17 touches and was able to reach the end zone in a 36-10 blowout of Chicago. It’s not unreasonable to project Martin for a similar workload after another week of recovery. The Chiefs have proven to be much more vulnerable via the run, where they rank 19th in DVOA. With the Bucs being big road dogs, Martin might be more of a contrarian play this slate, especially considering his FantasyLabs projected ownership of just two to four percent on DK.
RB – Peyton Barber
Barber saw 29.2 percent of the snaps and 12 carries in last week’s blowout. Barring injuries or blowouts, Barber’s just a guy who happens to have the most boring name ever.
WR – Mike Evans
Evans is coming off his worst performance so far this season, totaling just 8.6 FanDuel points. This week, he’s experienced a -$500 Salary Change, and he’s slated to run most of his routes against cornerback Phillip Gaines (per our Matchups tool). Gaines is allowing 0.30 fantasy points per route defended this season and, with his abominable Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 39.5, he’s offering Evans PFF’s most WR-friendly matchup of the slate. Evans has seen double-digit targets in every game except for the last one. In a game in which the Bucs will likely need to throw the ball, Evans could have a big performance.
WR – Adam Humphries
In the absence of Vincent Jackson, the slot man has had the opportunity to emerge, but he simply hasn’t. He’s a low-priced lottery ticket with an incredibly risky floor. He’s slated to face slot CB Steven Nelson, who’s ranked as PFF’s 40th CB with his 75.5 coverage grade. Humphries has a dangerously low 2.4-point projected floor on DK, but at least he has an intriguing 17.1-point projected ceiling.
WR – Cecil Shorts
Shorts continues to see heavy snaps, but there’s little fantasy production. He has just three total receptions in his last three games.
TE – Cameron Brate
Brate has scored a touchdown in three straight games, finishing with target totals of 5, 6, and 7. Unfortunately, he draws a tough assignment this week against the Chiefs, who haven’t allowed a single TE to score double-digit FD points this year. They’ve allowed just one touchdown to the position and are holding TEs to a -0.6 Opponent Plus/Minus. Kansas City is allowing the seventh-fewest red zone trips to opposing offenses, and the Bucs have been spreading around the wealth when inside their opponent’s 10-yard line. Per the Market Share Report:
Kansas City Chiefs
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Alex Smith
As always seems to be the case, Smith has a solid matchup, this time against a Tampa Bay defense allowing QBs to score 21.3 DK and 19.4 FD points per game — top-eight marks in the league. Smith will look at least to reach value against a Bucs defense that is allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt this season – fifth-highest in the league. He’s currently the No. 4 FD QB in the Levitan Model. He’s not fun to roster, but the matchup and price suggest that he’s someone worth considering at zero to one percent projected ownership in the Sunday Million.
RB – Spencer Ware
Ware has a stranglehold on the Chiefs RB1 job. He’s been one of the most efficient backs in the league this season, as his average of 6.6 yards per touch is the fifth-highest mark among all RB through 10 weeks. Ware has posted a +3.53 DK Plus/Minus and averaged 16.33 DK points over eight games this season. He has a great matchup this week against a Buccaneers defense that ranks 27th against RBs in pass DVOA. Ware is currently the No. 4 DK RB in our Tournament Model, possessing the fifth-highest ceiling projection. At just $6,000 DK, he’s projected for five to eight percent ownership.
RB – Charcandrick West
As the RB2, West last week turned two rush attempts and three targets into 10 yards. There’s nothing to see here.
WR – Jeremy Maclin
Maclin (groin) has been declared out for Week 11.
WR – Tyreek Hill
Last week, the Chiefs chose to funnel their passing game through their explosive fifth-round rookie, who didn’t disappoint. Per our Trends Tool:
With Maclin out, Hill is once again in play at $4,500 on DK and $5,400 on FD. He’s slated to run most of his routes against CB Jude Adjei-Barimah, who has an exploitable below-average PFF coverage grade of 63.4. The Bucs defense offers the second-highest Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate for WRs.
WR – Albert Wilson
Wilson was a popular punt play in Week 10 but totaled just 25 yards on seven targets. The volume has been comfortable, with at least seven targets over each of the past two games, but it is still hard to recommend Wilson going forward with the emergence of Hill. Wilson has a floor projection of just 0.3 DK points.
WR – Chris Conley
Even with Maclin out, Conley’s unlikely to see lots of opportunities to show off his Jedi skillz. Conley does have PFF’s eighth-most WR-friendly matchup of the week against CB Vernon Hargreaves III, so he definitely has a chance of making a splash play, but he plays with a QB who has enough problems throwing the ball to his WR1.
TE – Travis Kelce
As a home favorite, Kelce has averaged 11.12 DK points and a +2.71 Plus/Minus with 70.6 percent Consistency in his 17 games since 2014. He’s projected at nine to 12 percent ownership but has a seemingly tough matchup against a Bucs defense that’s fifth in pass DVOA against TEs. But if you dig deeper you’ll see that they’ve done well against poor competition . . .
. . . and been lit up by better talents:
Kelce is an elite talent — he’s fourth at the position in target share of Air Yards over his last four game — and his upside warrants GPP exposure even in a less than optimal matchup on paper.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
