The Week 11 NFL Dashboard
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Bills at Bengals
Buffalo travels to Cincinnati as 2.5-point Vegas underdogs. The game has a 47-point total with the Bengals implied to score 24.75 points and the Bills just 22.25 points.
Buffalo Bills
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tyrod Taylor
Taylor’s elite rushing ability is somehow keeping his value afloat even with the lack of weapons he has at his disposal. Tygod is first in rush yards (362), second in rush yards per game (40), fourth in carries per game (6), and second in red-zone carries (nine) among QBs. Even with a lack of difference makers in this offense, he is a very viable fantasy QB. The Bengals rank 20th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and are allowing the fourth-most TD passes (19) and sixth-most DK points to QBs this season. Tygod is currently the No. 4 QB in our Cash Model on DK at $5,600.
RB – LeSean McCoy
The bye week should have done McCoy (and his balky hamstring) a lot of good. Per Player Profiler, he is first in the NFL in runs of 15 or more yards this season with 1.5 per game. Per our Trends tool, road underdog RBs comparable in salary and projected point total typically perform above salary-based expectations (per our Plus/Minus metric):
McCoy is currently the No. 6 RB in our Tournament Model on DK, where he is projected for five to eight percent ownership and boasts the sixth-highest ceiling and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. Remember, there is plenty of value to be found in low-total RBs.
RB – Mike Gillislee/Reggie Bush
When McCoy is healthy, Gillislee and Bush hardly ever see the field. They’re not even contrarian tournament flyers.
WR – Robert Woods
Woods should continue to work as the team’s featured wide receiver as long as Sammy Watkins is unavailable. Maybe we don’t give this guy enough credit for his ceiling, but it’s more likely that Woods had a career day against the Seahawks in Week 9 with a 10-162 line on 13 targets. Seattle does struggle to defend the middle of the field and the Bengals have performed much better against slot receivers this year:
I’m probably not point chasing here, especially if McCoy’s hamstring allows him to play, as the Bills will likely lean heavily on the run. That said, Woods does have the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all FD WRs, so he may be an acceptable contrarian play at $4,900.
WR – Marquise Goodwin
You could do worse in tournaments, as Goodwin has big-play upside (read: elite speed), but he’s expected to see a lot of cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick in Week 11 (per our Matchups tool). According to Pro Football Focus, Kirkpatrick offers Goodwin the week’s 19th-most disadvantageous matchup. That said, Goodwin always has the potential for a long score, and he’s projected for zero to one percent ownership in the Millionaire Maker. He has averaged 5.5 targets over his last four games.
WR – Justin Hunter/Percy Harvin/Walt Powell
File these three in the Gillislee/Bush category — just at WR. This offense isn’t prolific enough to support a WR3 and WR4. Hunter has a GOAT-like three touchdowns on just six receptions, but he, Harvin, and Powell combined have a floor projection of just 2.1 DK points.
Hunter (groin) is questionable for Week 11. He was added to the injury report on Friday. He might not play this week . . . not that he ever does anyway.
TE – Charles Clay
He is second on the team in target market share (17.74 percent), but he could be the best bet to hit cash value on this team in Week 11, as the Bengals are 29th in pass DVOA against TEs. Clay is the second-highest rated DK TE in the Cash Model and the highest in our Tournament Model. Tyrod has to throw to someone, and Clay could be a viable punt play in all formats.
Cincinnati Bengals
Writer: John Proctor
QB – Andy Dalton
Dalton spent the majority of Week 10 under heavy pressure, as his offensive line continually collapsed. The line now ranks 32nd in FO’s Adjusted Line Yards Pass Protection with a 9.1 percent adjusted sack rate allowed. The big concern for Dalton is that the Bills defensive line ranks first in adjusted sack rate.
Luckily for Dalton, the Bills secondary has struggled. Even with a successful pass rush, the Bills defense is only 23rd in pass DVOA. That said, Dalton has now thrown for multiple touchdown passes only twice this season. He has thrown for over 300 yards just once in his last six games. He has, however, been consistent, throwing a touchdown pass in six consecutive games and rushing for two in his last four.
Basically, Dalton lacks upside, as he projects for a ceiling of less than 25 points on both DK and FD. He does boast a reasonable floor of 10-plus points on both sites.
RB – Giovani Bernard
Since Eifert has returned, Gio has lost significant target volume, as he has seen only eight targets over the last three games. He has also been losing rushing work to Jeremy Hill, as he has only 18 total carries over the last two weeks. Buffalo ranks 12th in pass DVOA against RBs. Unless Gio gets a larger workload, we should expect him to continue to be a high-floor/low-ceiling option.
RB – Jeremy Hill
Hill has now seen back-to-back games with 15-plus touches and a touchdown. However, he has seen only one target over that span. He has also averaged fewer than four yards per carry. This week, he faces a Buffalo run defense that is allowing just a +0.5 DK Plus/Minus to opposing RBs over the last 16 games. Hill will remain a TD-dependent weekly option with multi-TD upside.
WR – A.J. Green
Green has 47 targets and 446 receiving yards over his last four games, averaging almost 15 yards per catch. Per PFF, Green leads WRs in plays of 30-plus yards, and Buffalo’s outside CBs allow the highest percentage of plays over 30 yards.
While there are major concerns about the Bengals offensive line, Green should be able to take advantage of his matchup against Ronald Darby and Stephon Gilmore, as they both have PFF coverage grades below 65. Darby is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per route run. Green is the highest-rated DK WR over $6,500 in the Levitan Model.
WR – Brandon LaFell
LaFell continues to lose volume, as he only has four targets over the last two games. He has now posted back-to-back games with fewer than 10 receiving yards. He was previously buoying his value with consistent TDs, but he hasn’t scored a TD since Week 7. LaFell is the third option at best in a low-volume passing offense.
WR – Tyler Boyd
Boyd has now out-targeted LaFell for two straight weeks, but he still has only 11 targets over that span. He also hasn’t scored a touchdown this season, nor has he had more than 80 receiving yards in any game. We continue to wait for the Boyd breakout, but that may not happen in 2016.
TE – Tyler Eifert
Eifert opened Week 10 with an amazing catch for 71 yards as he blew past the Giants secondary. He ran with only green grass in front of him but was somehow caught from behind. With the Giants defensive line dismantling the Bengals offensive line, Eifert had only two catches for 25 yards the rest of the game. Eifert was used a lot in pass protection and managed to see only five targets.
While the offensive line is a concern, Eifert continues to have one of the highest ceilings of any tight end. He is the second passing option in this offense and looks to be regaining his form from 2015, when he converted 15 red-zone targets into 11 touchdowns. He is a weekly threat for a touchdown and is one of the few TEs with multi-TD upside. He rates as a top-10 FD TD in the Levitan Model.
News Updates
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