Welcome to The Forward Pass. This piece offers a few usage notes from Week 10 and makes forward-looking statements about Week 11 and beyond.
1. The Saints Run Into the Recordbook
In last week’s piece, I mentioned that the Saints have prioritized the running game with their dynamic backfield duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. In 11 seasons with quarterback Drew Brees, only once have the Saints not finished in the top-five in passing volume: In 2009, when they won the Super Bowl. Entering Week 10 the Saints were 16th in pass attempts per game, and if their win over the Bills is any indication they don’t plan to transition back to a pass-heavy offense, as the Saints ran on 65.7 percent of their 73 offensive snaps and set a franchise record with six rushing touchdowns. Over the weekend only two running backs rushed for at least 100 yards: Ingram and Kamara. Even though they’ve both been incredibly productive since returning in Week 6 from their bye, they were rostered together in only 0.18 percent of Week 10 Millionaire Maker lineups. There are enough carries in this backfield for both players to be productive, and they have Football Outsiders’ No. 1 run-blocking offensive line to open holes. The Saints are -7.5 home favorites over the Redskins in Week 11. Expect more running.
2. MG3 Is no Longer a Workhorse
During their Week 9 bye, the Chargers must’ve looked at Melvin Gordon‘s substandard career mark of 3.8 yards per carry and inflated total of 20 touchdowns and realized that he’s the least efficient ‘productive’ NFL runner through the first three years of his career since the lumbering LenDale White (3.8 yards per carry, 22 touchdowns) pretended to care about football. In Week 10 the Chargers still gave Gordon 16 carries and eight targets — which he predictably turned into a horrid 42 scrimmage yards — but they also gave significant snaps to the undrafted rookie Austin Ekeler, a small school superstar who dominated Danny Woodhead‘s old Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference (Division II) for four years at Western State Colorado University with 5,857 yards rushing, 1,215 yards receiving, and 63 touchdowns from scrimmage in 40 games. He entered Week 10 with 5.5 yards per carry and a 77.8 percent catch rate, and by the end of the week he had turned 10 carries and five targets into 119 yards and two touchdowns. His game-altering fumble, though unfortunate, will eventually be forgiven. Although Gordon is still the lead back for the Chargers, he’s unlikely in the future to be the full-on workhorse he’s been in the past.
3. Legatron Is Leg-it
I try not to write about kickers (cough, cough), but something has to be said about the great season we’re witnessing ignoring from Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein. On the league’s highest-scoring team, Legatron has the position’s best combination of Consistency (87 percent) and Upside (37 percent) Ratings, and he entered Week 10 leading the league in field goals attempted (25) and made (24) and extra points attempted (27) and made (27). The Rams as -12.0 home favorites dismantled the struggling Texans 33-7, and Zuerlein had a big day, connecting on four field goal attempts (one of which was a 50-yarder) and three extra points. With the way the Rams are playing on both sides of the ball, Zuerlein seems likely to get ample opportunities in the second half of the season. No one likes to spend money for kickers on FanDuel, but this year the only thing worse than paying up for Zuerlein has been not paying up for him.
4. All You Need Is Love (From Your Quarterback)
Wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Larry Fitzgerald entered Week 10 with top-eight target totals, but their popularity has recently waned as their injured starting quarterbacks have been replaced by Tom Savage and Drew Stanton. Both receivers had tough matchups against the Rams and Seahawks, but they still led the slate with 14 targets apiece. Hopkins finished with seven receptions for 111 yards; Fitz, 10 for 113. Both receivers have diminished upside because of their quarterbacks, but they’re still target hogs with 100-yard, two-touchdown potential in any given game because of their volume. This week Hopkins was owned at only 3.23 percent in the Milly Maker. That’s far too low. When the Cardinals visit the Texans in Week 11, it’s possible that both receivers could once again have double-digit targets.
5. Tight Ends in the Stream, That Is What We Are
Tight ends Eric Ebron and Garrett Celek entered Week 10 having played on just 56.0 and 39.8 percent of their teams’ snaps. Between the two of them they had 25 receptions for 269 yards and two touchdowns across 17 games — and then they combined for six receptions, 106 yards, and two touchdowns as top-10 fantasy performers. Far from being random, these performances were foreseeable, as Ebron and Celek faced the Browns and Giants, who are the most tight end-friendly opponents in the league. No matter how bad a tight end is or how little he is traditionally used in his offense, if he gets regular snaps and is playing against the Browns or Giants, he is rosterable in guaranteed prize pools and maybe even cash games. For Week 11, say hello to Marcedes Lewis and — dear Zeus! — Travis Kelce. Lewis leads the Jaguars in receiving touchdowns, and Kelce is a top-two fantasy tight end. As Marvin Gaye and Tammi Terrell put it, “Ain’t no ownership high enough.”
Research the upcoming Week 11 games for yourself with our Tools and Models.
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
