The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: things like salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our Models and take a look at some of the players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 10 NFL slate.
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Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. TEN — $7,300 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
The QB position is a bit watered down this week. Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson both played on Thursday Night Football, and Patrick Mahomes plays on Sunday night. That leaves Jackson with the top ceiling projection in our NFL Models this week.
Jackson has definitely had a disappointing season after basically rewriting the fantasy record book in 2019. He’s averaged more than 32 fewer rushing yards per game, and he’s also seen a steep decline in his passing numbers.
That said, this matchup vs. the Titans could be the perfect remedy to his struggles. The biggest change for the Ravens this season has been the loss of Marshall Yanda and Ronnie Stanley on the offensive line, which has made their running game far less potent and put Jackson under more pressure. That shouldn’t be an issue vs. the Titans, who have a very mediocre defensive front. Overall, Jackson owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.4 on DraftKings.
Top Value: Deshaun Watson vs. NE — $6,500 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
Watson owns the top projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel at the QB position this week, and he’s nearly impossible to argue against.
For starters, Watson is priced ridiculously cheap on DraftKings at just $6,500. He scored at least 23.9 DraftKings points in five straight games before struggling in the windy conditions in Cleveland last week, and Watson has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.59 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool).
Additionally, he’s in a great spot this week vs. the Patriots. They rank merely 30th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and Watson’s WRs should have a massive advantage vs. the Pats’ corners. As long as the Texans don’t let the Patriots slow this game way down with their rushing attack – which is a slight concern – Watson should be looking at a solid performance.
Top Ownership: Justin Herbert vs. NYJ — $6,800 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
The ownership is expected to be spread out at the QB position this week. Jackson and Watson will both command solid ownership, and guys like Herbert, Matt Ryan, and Joe Burrow should be popular as well.
Herbert is expensive this week, but it’s hard not to like him vs. the Jets’ porous defense. They rank dead last in pass defense DVOA, and Herbert owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.6 on DraftKings. Herbert’s production was down a bit last week vs. the Dolphins’ solid defense, but he’s still posted a positive Plus/Minus each of his first eight career starts.
He also stands out this week from a Vegas perspective. The Chargers are currently favored by 9.5 points in this matchup, giving Herbert an implied team total of 27.75. That’s the second-highest mark on the slate, trailing only the Steelers’ mark of 28.25.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Dalvin Cook vs. DAL — $9,000 on DraftKings, $10,500 on FanDuel
Cook’s salary has skyrocketed across the industry, but it is complete deserved. He has carried an absolutely massive workload recently, averaging 27.3 carries and three targets per game over his past three contests. He’s probably the only player in football who can realistically expect to get 30 opportunities a game at this point.
Of course, Cook is also capable of doing a lot of damage with those opportunities. He’s gone for at least 42.2 DraftKings points in two of those contests, and he’s averaged 27.9 DraftKings points per game over the past month.
Cook is another strong spot this week vs. the Cowboys. Their defense has gotten a bit better as they’ve gotten healthier, but the Vikings are still favored by seven points. Historically, Cook has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.08 in five games when favored by at least a touchdown.
Top Value: Duke Johnson vs. NE — $5,400 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
Johnson was expected to be one of the better values on the slate last week vs. the Browns but ultimately finished with a disappointing 5.4 DraftKings points. That said, the Texans scored just one touchdown in terrible weather conditions, which obviously impacted his fantasy production.
He should get another chance this week with David Johnson out of the lineup, and Duke dominated the backfield work for the Texans in that situation last week. He played on 95% of the Texans’ offensive snaps and received all 14 of the RB carries in that contest, so he should be able to put together a better performance in better conditions.
The Patriots are also just as good of a matchup for RBs as they are for QBs, ranking 31st in rush defense DVOA.
Top Ownership: Aaron Jones @ IND — $7,200 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Jones should be a popular target this week, and he has a chance to become the mega-chalk at the position if Davante Adams is ultimately unable to suit up. Adams was limited at practice on Wednesday and complete missed Thursday’s practice, so he appears to be trending in the wrong direction.
Jones has already been involved in the Packers’ passing attack recently, logging at least five catches in back-to-back games, and that number has a chance to increase even further with Adams ruled out. He hasn’t smashed in two games without Adams this season – he’s scored 19.6 and 15.6 DraftKings points – but he averaged 5.5 catches, nearly 140 yards from scrimmage, and 1.8 touchdowns per game in four games without Adams last year.
Wide Receivers
Top Ceiling: Julio Jones @ NO — $7,500 on DraftKings, $8,100 on FanDuel
Adams is obviously in consideration for this spot if he’s active, but let’s talk about Jones instead. He’s another player who could benefit from his team’s injury situation this week. Calvin Ridley hasn’t practiced early in the week, so there’s a chance that he might not be able to suit up for this contest vs. the Saints.
Even if Ridley does suit up, Jones has still been playing at a high level recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his past four games, and he’s finished with at least 97 receiving yards or a touchdown in each contest.
The Saints do have a good defense, but they’ve struggled vs. receivers from a fantasy perspective this season. Jones owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.1 on FanDuel, and he’s capable of finding success in any matchup.
Top Value: Denzel Mims @ LAC — $3,300 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
The Jets’ fans haven’t had a lot to get excited about this season, but Mims is one of the exceptions. His production hasn’t been off the charts from a fantasy perspective, but the potential is definitely there. He’s posted a Weighted Opportunity Rating of 67% over his past four games, which trails only Adams and Adam Thielen over the same time frame.
He also has an excellent matchup this week vs. the Chargers. Their pass defense hasn’t been all that bad – they rank 15th in pass defense DVOA – but they have struggled vs. deep passes in particular. They rank dead last in that department, and that’s the area where Mims is expected to excel. He ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at the combine at 6’3”, which gives him a unique combination of size and speed.
Top Ownership: Robby Anderson vs. DET — $6,000 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Anderson’s ownership projection falls a bit as we inch closer to Sunday – that will happen when your starting QB gets ruled out – but he sits at the top of our Models for the time being. Anderson is right up there with Mims as far as Weighted Opportunity Rating over the past four weeks, owning a mark of 65%, and he provides a nice combination of floor and upside. He’s getting plenty of targets in the passing game, and many of those targets are coming well down the field.
Anderson is in a nice spot this week vs. the Lions, who rank merely 23rd in pass defense DVOA. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.0 on FanDuel doesn’t jump off the page, but he does have a solid matchup advantage according to Pro Football Focus.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Mark Andrews vs. TEN — $4,900 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
It has not been a good season for Andrews. There was some hope that he could improve upon his production from last year following the departure of Hayden Hurst, but he’s actually taken a step backwards.
The good news is that he still has plenty of ceiling. He’s had a couple smash games already, scoring at least 17.6 DraftKings points in three contests and 13.1 DraftKings points in a fourth. He’s also coming off a season-high nine targets in his last game, so he’s hopefully trending in the right direction.
He makes for a logical stacking partner with Jackson given their elite correlation, and he’s definitely cheap enough to consider on his own on DraftKings.
Top Value: Dallas Goedert @ CLE — $3,800 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
The Eagles offense is getting closer to full strength, but Zach Ertz remains out at the TE position. That leaves Goedert to handle the majority of the snaps at the position. He played on 93% of the Eagles offensive snaps last week, which obviously gives him plenty of potential to rack up targets and receptions.
He’s an elite target on DraftKings at $3,800 given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Top Ownership: Taysom Hill vs. ATL — $4,500 on FanDuel
I buried the lead at the TE position with Hill, who deserves to be listed in all three of these categories on FanDuel. The new report out of New Orleans is that Hill will start in place of the injured Drew Brees this week and that Jameis Winston may have “no role” in the Saints’ game plan. If Hill is going to play 100% of the snaps at the QB position, it seems impossible to fade him at just $4,500 at the TE position on FanDuel.
I honestly have no idea how high his ownership will get, but anything less than 100% feels like a mistake. Hill has a very fantasy-friendly skill set at the QB position given his rushing ability, so his ceiling should be north of 20 fantasy points. No other player at the position has a ceiling projection above 13.4 FanDuel points in our NFL Models, so Hill is simply too good to pass up in all formats.
