The NFL DFS prime time slates have only two games but massive guaranteed prize pools. Also, they’re just plain fun. This week, here are the games offered in the slate:
That snippet is from our free NFL Vegas dashboard and is current as of Sunday morning. Keep tabs on the dashboard for updates on the lines.
Quarterback
Adjusted Yards Per Pass Attempt, Last 12 Months: 7.73, Kirk Cousins
Cousins has now hit salary-based expectations on DK in seven of his last eight starts. He’s hit at least 18 DK points in his last four and has a nice 7:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that time frame. This week, he’ll face a Green Bay team that ranks 12th overall in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). However, they’re definitely better against the run (they rank fifth) than the pass (18th), and Washington has preferred to pass the ball this year, as shown by their 61.89 pass play percentage in 2016. That may shift a little moving forward — RB Rob Kelley has received 20 carries in each of the last two games — but Kirk has thrown the ball at least 33 times in each of his last five games and should have to throw in Week 11. He leads this QB foursome on DK with a +5.6 Projected Plus/Minus.
Projected Ceiling (FD): 26.8, Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers boasts the highest-projected ceiling in the slate at 26.8 FD points. He’s facing a Washington team that funnels production the opposite way, as their pass defense (per DVOA) ranks 14th while their run defense ranks a miserable 30th. That said, Green Bay has been the second-most pass-friendly team in the league this year, and they’ve essentially used Rodgers’ short passes as their run game ever since Eddie Lacy went down. Here are Rodgers’ pass attempts in his last six games: 51, 43, 38, 56, 42, and 45. He’s throwing the ball a ton and has scored at least 27 FD points in his last three games. This isn’t the most ideal matchup for QBs, but Rodgers may be able to still hit value solely because of expected volume.
Running Back
Pro Trends (FD): 7, Latavius Murray
Speaking of funnel defenses, Murray faces a Houston team that ranks (per DVOA) 11th against the pass but 24th against the run. He got a ton of opportunities last week — he turned 21 touches into 127 total yards and three touchdowns — and the game flow on Monday night sets up well for him again. This backfield was a bit volatile for most of the year, but Murray has owned the workload over the last three weeks: He’s received 46.5, 45.8, and 54.6 percent of the Raiders’ rushes, and he’s also received 13 targets in that time frame. He’s only $6,400 on FD, where he owns a 96 percent Bargain Rating and +4.1 Projected Plus/Minus.
Rushing Success Rate: 40.0 percent, Lamar Miller
Because of Murray’s and James Starks‘ price tags, Miller might be worth paying up for as a way to be contrarian in tournaments. Miller has seen his touches decrease lately: He’s gotten 15, 17, and 11 carries in the last three weeks after dominating the Colts for a 24-149-1 line on the ground and 3-29-1 through the air. For whatever it’s worth, that Colts defense is similar to this Oakland one: Indy ranks 30th, 30th, and 32nd overall, versus the pass, and versus the run; Oakland, 27th, 24th, and 27th. Miller is probably the most talented RB in the slate and has the best matchup; you might get him at reduced ownership. That’s intriguing.
Wide Receiver
Fantasy Points Per Snap, Last Month (DK): 0.36, Jordy Nelson
Jordy has seen monster target totals lately: He received 18 last week and had 22 in the previous two weeks. He’s caught a touchdown and racked up at least 94 yards in all three games. He’s clearly Rodgers’ go-to guy and has high market share rates: In the last four games, he owns 23.04 percent of Green Bay’s targets, a whopping 32.79 percent of their Air Yards, and four targets inside the 10-yard line. On the year, he leads all pass-catchers with 22 targets inside the red-zone — five more than any other player. There’s some risk here, as Jordy is set to match up against Josh Norman, Pro Football Focus’ 11th-ranked CB this season. That said, per our NFL News feed, Jordy ran 31.6 percent of his routes last week from the slot. He’s definitely a threat to get into the end zone this week.
Yards Per Target, Last Year: 8.4, Jamison Crowder
Crowder leads all WRs in this slate with an impressive 8.4 yards-per-target mark over the past year. That’s a mark often associated with volatility, but Crowder has actually been really consistent this year: He’s hit salary-based expectations on FD in eight of his last nine games by an average of 4.58 points. Over the last four games, he’s second on the Redskins with 20.0 percent of the targets and third with 19.56 percent of the Air Yards. He has scored a touchdown in three of his last four games and has hit double-digit FD points in his last five games. He’ll match up in the slot against Micah Hyde, who is PFF’s 66th-ranked CB this year and has a coverage grade of only 67.4. Crowder is a contrarian option in this slate, but he could pay off in tournaments if he finds the end zone again.
Tight End
Projected Ceiling (FD): 20.9, Jordan Reed
Reed will be the chalkiest TE in this slate by far, but it’s definitely warranted: His 20.9-point projected ceiling is over seven points higher than any other tight end’s. Reed struggled in his last game, scoring only 5.1 FD points on four targets. However, that was against the Vikings’ fifth-ranked pass defense; Green Bay ranks 18th against the pass, for reference. Reed is clearly the class of this TE group: His 0.23 fantasy points per opportunity mark over the past year dwarfs all other marks. He also easily leads the slate with 0.94 red-zone opportunities per game over the past year. Reed is expensive at $5,900 DK and $6,900 FD, but he’s definitely a very scary fade in prime time tournaments.
Target Share, Last Month: 19.12 percent, C.J. Fiedorowicz
The Houston passing attack is largely dominated by DeAndre Hopkins, but Fiedorowicz is actually second on the team with 19.12 percent of the targets over the last month and 16.64 percent of the Air Yards. He’ll have to compete with returning WR Will Fuller for targets, but C.J. consistently received opportunities even with Fuller in the lineup. He’ll face an Oakland team that ranks 24th against the pass and 17th versus tight ends this season. Again, it’s really hard to fade Reed in this slate, but C.J. has shown that he’s a threat to get into the end zone. He’ll be very low-owned given Reed’s presence, and if he can score a TD, perhaps the extra $2,600 DK and $1,800 FD you’ll save dropping down from Reed will be worth something.
Good luck!
