Week 9’s wide receiver/cornerback matchups were highlighted by the Rams and Eagles shrugging off the two best pass defenses from last season to the tune of 51 points, A.J. Green and Mike Evans turning their respective matchups with Jalen Ramsey and Marshon Lattimore into UFC fights, as well as two-touchdown days from Alshon Jeffery, T.Y. Hilton, Marvin Jones, Cole Beasley, and Robert Woods. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
Blue Chips
Antonio Brown vs. Colts Secondary
Brown is in a smash spot against the Colts’ 30th-ranked defense in pass DVOA. Overall, they’ve allowed the most yards per attempt and passes of 20-plus yards through nine weeks. Brown torched this very defense for 91 yards and three touchdowns on just six targets last Thanksgiving, and even the emergence of Juju Smith-Schuster, along with the return of Martavis Bryant, shouldn’t stop Brown from having a larger workload this time around. Overall, the league’s most-targeted receiver has 10-plus looks in all but one game this season.
Other than the highest-projected ownership on the slate (per our Pro Models), the only thing working against Brown is his quarterback’s extreme home/away splits. Ben Roethlisberger‘s inability to produce away from Heinz Field has had a negative impact on Brown, but the impact has been less negative in dome games:
- Brown in dome road games since 2011 (9 games): 7.44 receptions, 88.89 yards, 0.44 touchdowns, 19.0 DraftKings PPG
- Brown in open-roof road games since 2011 (43 games): 6.58 rec, 85.37 yds, 0.30 TDs, 16.9 PPG
All Steelers receivers should have ample opportunities to make plays against a Colts defense ranking among the bottom-six units in DraftKings PPG, Plus/Minus, and Consistency Rating allowed to opposing wide receiver units this season. Rashaan Melvin is the only Colts cornerback graded higher than 60th by PFF, and Vontae Davis will miss another week due to a groin injury. Consider using our Lineup Builder to stack Brown, Smith-Schuster, and/or Bell with Roethlisberger Sunday.
Corey Davis vs. Bengals Secondary
The No. 5 overall pick in this year’s draft averaged a robust 105.6 yards and 1.04 touchdowns in 50 career games at Western Michigan but has barely played over 100 snaps this season thanks to a lingering hamstring injury. Davis appears to have put his injury behind him, as he played a season-high 75 percent of the offense’s snaps last week while working alongside Rishard Matthews in the Titans’ two-wide formations. Davis has managed to convert his 18 targets into a 9-101-0 line through nine weeks while looking plenty worthy of being just the 13th receiver drafted fifth or higher in the last 25 years:
Davis takes on the Bengals’ 17th-ranked defense in pass DVOA, and the unit has appeared to wilt behind their formerly-great outside corners Adam Jones and Dre Kirkpatrick. The artist formerly known as Pacman is now 34 years old and PFF’s 91st-ranked cornerback out of 115 qualifiers, while Kirkpatrick comes in as the sixth-worst corner out of that sample. The only difference-maker has been rookie first-round pick William Jackson, who is allowing the fifth-lowest quarterback rating among all cornerbacks through nine weeks. Despite the defense surrendering 3.5 fewer PPG and 41.3 fewer passing yards in four games with Jackson starting this season, he’s continued to work as the defense’s No. 4 cornerback. Davis is the second-highest rated receiver in Adam Levitan’s Pro Model.
Julio Jones vs. Cowboys Secondary
Jones is on pace for a 86-1,316-2 line at the season’s midway point but has yet to provide a true eruption. He came close last week but instead faced the wrath of the internet after dropping one of the easier touchdowns you’ll ever see. Now Jones will return home to Atlanta for the first time since Week 6. Only Brown and Odell Beckham Jr. have averaged more DraftKings PPG than Jones at home since 2014 (per our Trends tool), and his average of 2.94 yards per route run (second behind only Brown) suggests Jones hasn’t become any easier for defenses to contain this season.
It won’t be easy for Jones to finally break out against a Cowboys defense that has thrived with all-world linebacker Sean Lee healthy, allowing 18 points and 307.2 total yards in six games with Lee compared to 35 points and 377 total yards in two games without. Of course, Lee won’t be the man tasked with containing Jones; that duty will fall on a combination of slot corner Orlando Scandrick, second year Anthony Brown, and rookie Jourdan Lewis, none of whom have managed to allow a quarterback rating under 100 on balls thrown into their coverage this season.
Jones has posted a combined 17-293-2 line in his two career games against the Cowboys, and he could find himself in a shootout with the week’s highest Vegas total. Be sure to monitor our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock to see Jones’ ownership at varying contest sizes.
Potential Fades
Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen vs. Redskins Secondary
Diggs posted an underwhelming 4-27-0 line on six targets in his return from a groin injury that sidelined him for two games. He’s had a bye week to recover, but the issue is concerning considering how his performance fell off after dealing with a lingering hamstring injury in 2015 and later groin, knee, and hip injuries in 2016:
- Diggs in September and October (14 games): 17.49 DraftKings PPG, +5.17 Plus/Minus, 50% Consistency Rating, 35% Upside Rating, 8% Ownership
- Diggs in November, December, and January (17 games): 11.41 PPG, -0.04 Plus/Minus, 35% Consistency, 17% Upside, 12% Ownership
Diggs said his groin injury wasn’t as severe as last year’s issue in early October – but then proceeded to miss two straight weeks of action. Even if his health is in order, he’s averaged 4.57 fewer DraftKings PPG on the road since 2015. Thielen has eight-plus targets in all but one game this season but has scored just one touchdown and is yet to gain over 100 yards with Case Keenum under center. This is life with a game manager at quarterback, as Keenum has attempted a league-low 2.4 red zone passes per game and has failed to lead the offense to more than 24 points in seven games against anyone other than the Browns and Buccaneers.
The Redskins secondary is far from a pushover, as all three of Josh Norman, Bashaud Breeland, and Kendall Fuller have allowed fewer than 1.0 yards per cover snap and a quarterback rating below 85. Diggs figures to see mostly Norman and Breeland, with Thielen spending his time against Fuller in the slot. The Redskins have allowed the lowest Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating to opposing wide receiver units this season, and both Diggs and Thielen could struggle to find much open room against a secondary ranking among the top-six units in DVOA against both WR1s and WR2s this season.
Keenan Allen vs. Jaguars Secondary
The Chargers have the most crowded group of pass-catchers in the league, with two running backs, two tight ends, and four wide receivers all warranting opportunities through the air. Allen racked up 10.6 targets per game from the beginning of 2015 through Week 5 of this season but has averaged just seven targets per game since the debut of seventh overall pick Mike Williams. Philip Rivers has also averaged 8.2 fewer pass attempts per game since Williams returned, indicating the offense won’t force the issue to anyone through the air. The Chargers don’t have a receiver to match Allen’s slot skills, but the overwhelming amount of options elsewhere has lowered the floor of everyone involved in an offense that is yet to score more than 27 points in a game this season.
The Jaguars’ league-best defense in both overall and pass DVOA is highlighted by stud outside corners Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, but Aaron Colvin has made life just as difficult for slot receivers through nine weeks:
- T.Y. Hilton: 8 targets, 2-27-0
- Cooper Kupp: 3 tgts: 2-35-0
- Juju Smith-Schuster: 6 tgts, 4-58-0
- Jeremy Kerley: 5 tgts, 5-37-0
- Jeremy Maclin: 5 tgts, 1-8-0
The Jaguars have posted the league’s best DVOA on passes down the middle of the field, as Barry Church and Tashaun Gipson are two of PFF’s top-20 highest-graded safeties and provide a top to the defense that has allowed the third-fewest passes of 20-plus yards this season.
Dez Bryant vs. Falcons Secondary
As his 9-132-2 line against the Packers in the Cowboys’ Divisional Round loss demonstrated last season, Bryant is still capable of putting together massive performances. Still, he’s had 15 consecutive regular season games without 100 yards. Bryant leads all receivers in targets inside the 20-yard line and is always a threat for multiple scores on the league’s fourth-highest scoring offense, but his career-low 11.6 yards per reception and zero touchdown receptions on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield demonstrates his early lack of success in generating big plays.
The Falcons’ 24th-ranked defense in pass DVOA is far from perfect, but they’ve done a great job limiting big plays. Overall, they’re one of just five teams to allow fewer than 20 passes of 20-plus yards this season, and Desmond Trufant has been a big reason why. Trufant ranks 15th among 73 full-time corners in yards allowed per cover snap, and his combination of size (6’0″ and 190 pounds) and speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash) makes him a nightmare for Bryant to match up with:
Bryant will also likely see plenty of the less-talented Robert Alford, as Trufant has mostly stuck to the left side of the field this season. He’s capable of winning both matchups considering Trufant has allowed four touchdowns in coverage this season, but he will have to get the job done while dealing with a sprained ankle and knee bruise. Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard and industry-leading News Feed to see how he’s doing in practice leading up to Sunday.
Honorable Mentions
- Doug Baldwin vs. Cardinals Secondary: Baldwin hasn’t faced shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson in their most recent matchups, and Peterson has played just 11 percent of his snaps from the slot this season. Baldwin has double-digit targets in three consecutive games since the team’s Week 6 bye after surpassing that threshold just once in Weeks 1-5. He’ll look to feast on Tyrann Mathieu (PFF’s No. 87 cover corner) and a Cardinals defense that has been most susceptible to passes down the middle this season (in DVOA).
- DeSean Jackson vs. Jets Secondary: Mike Evans is suspended for Sunday, so D-Jax will work as the Buccaneers’ No. 1 receiver and likely face shadow coverage from Morris Claiborne (foot, questionable), who has allowed the 10th-lowest quarterback rating among full-time corners this season. Jackson will also have to deal with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, but he’s always a threat to do damage with a hefty workload considering his 5.1-88.3-0.4 line in his last 15 games with eight-plus targets since 2014.
- Michael Thomas vs. Bills Secondary: The Bills could welcome back E.J. Gaines (hamstring, questionable), who hasn’t played since Week 7, but rookie first-rounder Tre’Davious White has stepped up in Gaines’ absence and is PFF’s No. 10 overall cornerback this season. Thomas has seven-plus receptions in five of his last six games but is yet to surpass 90 receiving yards and could continue to have a limited ceiling as long as Drew Brees treats him as the team’s possession receiver. Overall, Thomas’ average target distance of 9.7 yards is more than two yards less than any other Saints receiver with at least five targets this season.
- A.J. Green vs. Titans Secondary: Only Brown has averaged more DraftKings PPG than Green since the beginning of last season, although Green has failed to crack 45 yards in three consecutive weeks as defenses have honed in on the Bengals’ main offensive threat. He gets a Titans secondary that’s allowed the third-most DraftKings PPG to opposing wide receiver units since the beginning of last season, although the Titans’ man-heavy scheme has allowed the fewest combined passes of 20- and 40-plus yards this season.
- Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, and Danny Amendola vs. Broncos Secondary: Hogan (shoulder, questionable) would be replaced by Phillip Dorsett in three-wide sets if he’s ultimately unable to suit up. The Broncos’ ‘No Fly Zone’ is reeling after allowing 20-plus points in four consecutive games for the first time since 2013, and Tom Brady has thrown for 300-plus yards or multiple touchdowns in four of his last six meetings against the Broncos (including playoffs).
- Golden Tate and Marvin Jones vs. Browns secondary: Tate has been working his way back from a shoulder injury sustained in Week 6 and has averaged 54 snaps per game in Weeks 1-6 compared to 39.5 snaps per game in Weeks 8-9. Still, he’s gained 199 yards on 14 catches over the past two weeks. Both Tate and Jones should benefit from Matthew Stafford‘s hot streak, as he’s thrown for 300-plus yards in three straight games and is averaging the second-most adjusted yards per attempt of his career. They’ll look to keep rolling against the Browns’ 28th-ranked defense in pass DVOA, although Jones and Tate will likely see plenty of Briean Boddy-Calhoun and Jason McCourty – PFF’s No. 2 and No. 13 overall cornerbacks, respectively, this season.
The Shadow Factor
Very few cornerbacks shadow a receiver for the entirety of a game due to various scheme factors from both the offense and defense. Still, there are candidates each week who could see a heavy dose of their snaps against a single corner, including:
- DeSean Jackson vs. Morris Claiborne
- Marvin Jones vs. Jason McCourty
- Marqise Lee vs. Casey Hayward
- DeAndre Hopkins vs. Trumaine Johnson
- DeVante Parker vs. James Bradberry
- Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders vs. Stephon Gilmore and Malcolm Butler
