Week 10 gives us a slate in which there are multiple injuries at the top of the cornerback food chain. This is a great opportunity to take advantage of the replacements in this week’s matchups. Let’s break down this week’s notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
The Studs
Julio Jones vs. Eagles Secondary
Jones spends most of his time as the LWR, which should allow him to match up with Nolan Carroll. While Carroll is the ‘best’ Eagles cornerback per Pro Football Focus, that isn’t saying much: He’s ranked 86th overall. The Eagles’ passing defense ranks as the top overall unit per Football Outsiders’ DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average), but that is solely due to their strong pass rush. Their cornerbacks struggled in Week 9 against Odell Beckham, who consistently created separation.
However, it is important to note that the Falcons use multiple tight end sets at the highest rate in the league to slow opposing pass rushers. Julio has three games over 100 yards in his past four and 40 targets over that span. Should he get eight to 10 opportunities to catch passes against the Philadelphia cornerbacks, he could have a huge week. Julio does not rate very highly in some of our Pro Player Models this week due to his inconsistency and Philadelphia’s overall passing defense. However, he projects for the fifth-highest DraftKings ceiling on the week and makes for a nice tournament option.
Antonio Brown vs. Cowboys Secondary
The Dallas Cowboys are missing their top-rated cornerback, Morris Claiborne, who is currently PFF’s seventh-highest rated CB on the year. They are also missing their top-rated safety, Barry Church. This should mean that Antonio Brown could get ample opportunity to run at Claiborne’s replacement, Anthony Brown, who has graded out as PFF’s 62nd-ranked cornerback. On paper, this matchup is great.
However, the Cowboys have continued to play ball-control offense, which has limited the time of possession for their opponents. They lead the NFL in time of possession; the Steelers rank 21st. In football, volume is king, and Dallas’ style of play could potentially cost Brown a couple of targets. Brown has the highest weekly ceiling of any wide receiver with Big Ben under center, but he currently projects for only 2.4 points per $1,000 salary on DraftKings. The cornerback matchup is good, but the Cowboys really limit their opponents’ offensive volume.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Adam Jones and Dre Kirkpatrick
Beckham draws a matchup with the Bengals, who have been the strongest defense against slot cornerbacks this season while struggling on the outside. Josh Shaw, the Bengals’ highest-graded cornerback, does not play on the outside. With Beckham playing very little slot receiver this season, he should instead do battle with Jones and Kirkpatrick. Jones was a very stingy corner in 2015 but has seemingly lost a step this year; both Kirkpatrick and Jones grade below 50.0, per PFF.
The Bengals are allowing the ninth-highest yards per reception mark and (per DVOA) rank 30th and 23rd against receivers on the outside left and right, respectively. There is little reason to fear this 24th-ranked passing defense; this should be a good spot for OBJ to continue his success from Week 9. This game also looks to be a possible shoot-out with a Vegas total of 47 and rising. Beckham projects for the second-highest ceiling in our FanDuel Player Models and has eight Pro Trends for this week.
A.J. Green vs. Giants Secondary
On the other side of the Giants-Bengals affair, Green has a much tougher matchup. However, if the Giants allow the struggling Eli Apple to continue to man the LCB position, Green could have a huge game, as he runs more than 40 percent of his routes from that side. While Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie both grade out as top-10 PFF cornerbacks this season, Apple has graded out as the 99th-ranked cornerback. If the Giants deploy Jenkins and DRC on the outside with Leon Hall in the slot, Green could struggle. If Apple starts at LCB, fire up Green. All that said, he is currently the fifth-highest rated receiver in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model.
Mike Evans vs. Tracy Porter and De’Vante Bausby
Note: Bryce Callahan is questionable for Week 10.
While the Bears’ pass rush has started to come alive, they continue to struggle at the cornerback position. Should Bausby draw another start, Evans could have another massive week. For reference, Bradford had a 156.3 QB Rating when targeting Bausby last week. Yes, Sam Bradford. Even if the Bears are starting Callahan and Porter, neither of them have played particularly well this season and are both outside the top-40 PFF cornerbacks.
Evans has averaged a touchdown per game this season and has only two games without one. On top of the touchdowns, he has seen 11-plus targets for seven straight weeks. The matchup should be considered neutral at worst and a major upgrade if Callahan is unavailable. Evans has the third-highest projected ceiling in our DraftKings Player Models. Pay close attention to Callahan’s status as lock approaches Sunday.
Notable Upgrades
Alshon Jeffery vs. Vernon Hargreaves
For two weeks in a row, Hargreaves has been completely abused by elite wide receivers. He has helped contribute to huge games for Julio and Amari Cooper. This week, he should spend about half the game covering Jeffery. Hargreaves grades out as PFF’s 116th-ranked cornerback on the season. Alshon is also lucky to have Jay Cutler back on the field, as he saw 26 percent of the Bears’ passes in Jay’s first game back. This looks like a dream spot for Jeffery: He rates as the top receiver in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model.
Jordan Matthews vs. Brian Poole
The Falcons have allowed a ton of production in the middle of the field this year. This is partly because they have a weak linebacker group and because slot corner Brian Poole is their weakest cornerback. Matthews runs over 70 percent of his routes from the slot and should mostly avoid Desmond Trufant (if he is able to play).
The Eagles have generally tried to hide behind their running game, but they may have to pass more often this week against the NFL’s top-scoring offense. Matthews holds a healthy 25 percent of Wentz’s targets over the last four games and has seen 25 targets over his last two. Given projected game flow and market share data, he should be a good bet for eight to 12 targets in a plus matchup. Matthews is the fourth-highest rated receiver in Adam Levitan’s DraftKings Player Model.
Downgrades
With injuries to many of the top cornerbacks, including Darius Slay, Desmond Trufant, Morris Claiborne, Aqib Talib, and Delvin Breaux (limited snaps in Week 9), there aren’t any specific notable cornerback downgrades. As usual, we should downgrade entire passing units against the Vikings and Broncos.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
