The Week 10 NFL Dashboard
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Seahawks at Patriots
The Seahawks travel to New England in Week 10 as 7.5-point dogs against the 7-1 Patriots. This game has a high Vegas total of 49 points, although most of that is projected to go to the Pats. They are projected for 28.25 points; the Seahawks are projected for a low 20.75 points.
Seattle Seahawks
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Russell Wilson
Wilson didn’t throw a ton last week but was incredibly efficient: He completed 20 of his 26 passes — a 76.9 percent completion rate — for 282 yards and two touchdowns. It was the second time all year that he exceeded 20 FD points. Perhaps last week’s efficiency was a sign that he’s feeling healthier, which he’ll need to be this week on the road as a huge dog. There is some hidden upside here: The Patriots are very stout against the run, ranking fifth this season per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). However, they’re quite susceptible to the pass, ranking 26th on the year. They could potentially funnel production to the passing game. More encouraging news: Wilson is only $7,400 FD, which (per our Trends tool) is the cheapest he’s ever been in 40 games on the site. He’s the fifth-highest rated FD QB in the Bales Model despite the low Vegas total.
RB – Christine Michael
As mentioned above, the Patriots are very good against the run this year, ranking fifth through nine weeks. Combine that with the fact that Michael has been slowly losing work over the past three games . . .
. . . and it’s hard to get excited about Michael or any of the Seattle backs this week. In fact, Michael ($5,900 DK, $7,000 FD) is projected for fewer points than C.J. Prosise at a much higher salary. Michael has a poor -1.4 Projected Plus/Minus on FD and is one of the lower-rated backs in our Pro Player Models.
Also, Michael (hamstring) was added to the injury report on Friday after apparently suffering an injury during the week. He’s officially questionable for Week 10. Monitor his situation with the FantasyLabs News feed.
RB – C.J. Prosise
Speaking of Prosise: He’s only particularly interesting this week because of how cheap he is at $3,900 DK and $4,700 FD. He’s the ‘highest-projected’ back for the Seahawks, but he’s still projected for only 9.1 FD points. That’s not bad, considering that his $4,700 salary requires just 4.57 points to hit value, giving him a solid +4.5 Projected Plus/Minus on the week. But, still, he doesn’t really have the floor to be rostered in cash games or the ceiling to be rostered in a high percentage of guaranteed prize pools given his expected workload and matchup. He’s projected to be owned in zero to one percent of GPPs. Perhaps throw him in a lineup in case he breaks a long TD in the passing game or surprises with more work than expected.
However, if Michael is out or expected to be limited then Prosise will likely see a significant increase in usage.
WR – Doug Baldwin
Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman made a good argument regarding Baldwin in this week’s WR Breakdown:
You can like Baldwin this week if you want, because he’s cheap and because he’s facing the Patriots, who are 26th in pass DVOA — but don’t like him because of who he was in the second half of last year.
Baldwin still has amazing long-term marks. For example, he has the fourth-highest fantasy points per snap among all WRs at 0.30. He’s in the top-10 and tied with A.J. Green in yards per target (10.5). Normally, we would recommend emphasizing long-term marks — or larger sample sizes — over short-term ones. However, the long-term marks here miss the context of Jimmy Graham, who is definitely the top receiver in this offense now. Per the Market Share Report, over the past four weeks Graham has led the Seahawks in target share (25.20 percent) and is second to Jermaine Kearse in market share of Air Yards (24.84 percent). Again, you can roster Baldwin, but don’t do it because you’re expecting the player from 2015.
WR – Jermaine Kearse
Other than Baldwin and Graham, no other Seahawks pass-catcher is projected for more than seven FD points. However, given Kearse’s Air Yards, he’s somewhat intriguing:
He doesn’t get a ton of targets — he had only two catches on four targets last week — but he does get valuable ones. At zero to one percent FantasyLabs projected ownership, he’s not the worst dart throw in the world.
WR – Tyler Lockett
If you’ve been disappointed by Baldwin this year, then you’ve also probably been disappointed by Lockett, who caught one ball on two targets last week and hasn’t been above 5.2 FD points since Week 2 of the season — a week in which he had 11.9 points. He has 10.24 percent of the Seahawks’ targets over the last four games and simply isn’t involved enough to roster currently.
TE – Jimmy Graham
I already talked about Jimmy throughout the other blurbs, but to reiterate: He’s the lead receiver in this offense and has a really nice matchup against a New England team that ranks 24th in pass DVOA against TEs. He’s a very intriguing GPP option this week at five to eight percent projected ownership on FD, where he is just $6,600 and owns an 89 percent Bargain Rating and seven Pro Trends.
New England Patriots
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tom Brady
From an efficiency standpoint, Brady has been lights out this year. Per Player Profiler:
Even this week against Seattle, Brady has the fifth-highest DK ceiling among QBs. Still, he is currently ranked dead last in the Levitan Model. Given his matchup, Brady carries a lot of risk, but you could do worse in GPPs than have exposure to Brady’s upside at home. His FantasyLabs ownership projection is nine to twelve percent in the Millionaire Maker,
RB – LeGarrette Blount
With Brady back, Blount is no longer the centerpiece of this offense. He carries risk in cash games because of his absence in the passing game, but he has great GPP potential because of his multi-touchdown upside as the team’s goal-line back:
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Blount has 13 opportunities inside the 10-yard line over his last four games — that’s the second-highest mark in the NFL — and he’s the seventh-highest rated DK RB in our Tournament Model at just two to four percent projected ownership.
However, the Seahawks defense is third in rush DVOA, giving up just three rushing TDs on the season. You can roll the dice on Blount in GPPs, but know that he’ll almost certainly need to get into the end zone to meet value.
RB – James White
Brady clearly sees White as a top option, and that really matters. White will likely see a full load of pass-down snaps in Week 10, and he has reached his salary-based expectations in four of the past five games — a span in which he’s seen at least five targets per game. Even after scoring three touchdowns over the last three games, White could still be under-owned. With two to four percent projected ownership, he has sneaky GPP upside, despite the Seahawks owning the second-lowest Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate. They are giving up a middle of the pack 4.75 receptions per game to RBs, and those likely won’t see Blount’s hands in Week 10.
Dion Lewis (knee) is nearing a return, but he’s uncertain to play this week, and head coach Bill Belichick has said (per ESPN’s Mike Reiss) that “it would take quite a bit” for someone to pass White on the depth chart.
WR – Julian Edelman
Edelman has not shown huge TD upside but remains a huge part of this Patriots passing game, as he has a 25.93 percent target share over his last four games (top-15 in the league). Per our Matchups tool, Edelman is likely to run the majority of his routes against cornerback Jeremy Lane, Pro Football Focus’ 80th-ranked CB this season. Per our Trends Tool, DK slot receivers have typically performed slightly above salary-based expectations against the Seahawks this year:
Edelman (foot) is officially questionable but participated in practice on Friday and has been playing through questionable tags all year.
WR – Chris Hogan
Averaging just three targets over the past four games, Hogan is still third on the team in market share of Air Yards (22.23 percent). He isn’t rated highly in any of our Pro Models, but his explosiveness suggests that he has some sneaky upside for tournaments in good matchups. However, he is likely outmatched this week, as we’re expecting him to run the majority of his routes against CB Richard Sherman.
Plus, Hogan (back) missed Friday’s practice and is officially questionable. There’s a real chance that he will miss this game after his back started acting up on Thursday.
WR – Danny Amendola
It is highly unlikely that Amendola will repeat his Week 2 multi-touchdown performance anytime soon, but he did score last week for the first time in six games. This happened just one week removed from a zero-target performance, so chasing TDs with Amendola probably isn’t a lucrative idea. He’s a low-end GPP dart with a 3.3-point floor on DK.
TE – Rob Gronkowski
Gronk is back to being Gronk. Even as a tight end, he boasts an absurd 33 percent market share of Air Yards over the past four games. He is essentially matchup-proof (and the Seahawks are 23rd in pass DVOA against TEs), but it is always tough to pay up for him in cash games. In GPPs, Gronk is all alone in an elite tier with the highest floor and ceiling at the position. But he’s also projected to be owned at 17-20 percent.
TE – Martellus Bennett
The bye week should have done Bennett a lot of good, as he has been hobbled with an ankle injury the past few weeks. He is still seeing plenty of snaps in New England’s base two-TE set. Bennett has shown a lot of TD upside and is essentially the weekly GPP leverage play at just two to four percent projected ownership against people chasing the Gronk Smash.
Bennett (ankle) is officially questionable but expected to play after practicing this week.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
