The Week 10 NFL Dashboard
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Rams at Jets
In what looks like a potential defensive battle, the Rams travel to the East Coast to face the New York Jets. This game currently has the lowest total of the week at 41. The Jets are two-point favorites and implied for 21 points; the Rams are implied for 19 points.
Los Angeles Rams
Writer: Bryan Mears
QB – Case Keenum
There’s a popular joke in the NFL community that goes roughly something like this: “Just how awful must Jared Goff be if he can’t get on the field over Keenum?” Well, here’s how bad: He’d have to be somehow worse than a QB with a bottom-five completion percentage, bottom-five yards per attempt, bottom-three adjusted yards per attempt, the worst TD/game rate, and a bottom-five interception rate. Using that logic, Goff is probably not only not worthy of his No. 1 draft spot, but he’s probably not even worthy of a roster spot. Or, hear me out, maybe the Rams aren’t very well-coached.
Onto Keenum: He gets a dream matchup against a Jets defense that ranks 30th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). His one good game this year came against the Lions — another awful pass defense — against whom he scored 30.5 FD points. However, against the comparable defenses of Carolina and Tampa Bay, he couldn’t hit 15 FD points. He’s obviously very volatile and in a low-total game. He has bottom-six ratings in DK and FD Bales Model despite the excellent matchup.
RB – Todd Gurley
After watching Melvin Gordon destroy the league behind a good offensive line and a competent QB, I genuinely feel awful for Gurley and his situation in LA. The issue isn’t opportunity: He’s gotten at least 12 carries in every game this year and at least five targets in each of the last five games. He’s hit double-digit DK points in all but two games as a result of the volume, but his efficiency has been terrible behind this line: He hasn’t averaged more than 4.1 yards per carry in any game this season. Things won’t get easier this week against a stout Jets run defense that ranks second in the league in rush DVOA. That said, Gurley has been involved in the passing game, which gives him some upside and safety: Per the Market Share Report, he’s owned 13.04 percent of the Rams’ targets over the past month and hasn’t gotten less than 10 percent in any week over the last four games. He’s only $5,300 this week on DK, where he holds a 60 percent Bargain Rating.
Gurley (thigh) is officially questionable but he practiced on Friday and seems very likely to play this week. Monitor his situation on the FantasyLabs News feed.
RB – Benny Cunningham
Cunningham did get six targets last week against the Panthers, but he hasn’t seen more than two in any other game this season. Further, Gurley has shown that he’s capable of being a three-down back. Benny is a dart throw at best.
WR – Kenny Britt
Britt doesn’t even seem like a Rams receiver: Over his last eight games, he has actually exceeded his salary-based expectations on DK by an average of 5.6 points (per our Plus/Minus metric).
And he’s actually intriguing this week. Despite seeing only 17.39 percent of the Rams’ targets over the past four games, he leads the team in market share of Air Yards in that same time frame with 30.06 percent.
When he’s targeted, he’s getting valuable targets in terms of DFS opportunities. They are targets down the field. That is especially interesting against a Jets secondary that ranks as the third-worst in the NFL this year. Further, because the Jets are so stout against the run, they should funnel production to the passing game. There’s a solid chance that Britt could see a slight increase on his valuable targets this week. He’s the fifth-highest rated DK WR in the Bales Model currently.
WR – Brian Quick
Quick is sort of a less exciting Britt: In the past four games, he has seen 14.91 percent of the Rams’ targets but 28.14 percent of the Air Yards. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last six games and isn’t the worst GPP dart throw going against Darrelle Revis, Pro Football Focus’ 78th-ranked CB on the year.
WR – Tavon Austin
Get ready for the most Tavon image ever:
That’s what you’re going to get: Low targets one week, high targets another, and poor production every time you roster him.
TE – Lance Kendricks
One of the biggest surprises I came across when putting together my Market Share Report was that Kendricks actually leads the Rams in target share over the last four weeks at 19.88 percent. Further, he has two targets inside the 10-yard line in that same time frame. That’s not bad for a guy who is $3,000 DK and $4,500 FD playing against a poor Jets defense. He leads all FD TEs in the slate with a +4.0 Projected Plus/Minus and is definitely worth some GPP exposure at just two to four percent projected ownership.
New York Jets
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Ryan Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick’s Plus/Minus this year is rather unimpressive:
Yeah, woof. He’s struggled to get much of anything going this season, as he hasn’t thrown for more than one touchdown in any game since Week 1. He has a tough matchup against a Rams’ defense that has allowed just 6.6 yards per pass attempt this season, the sixth-best mark in the league. The Rams defense has held six of eight QBs to no more than 16 DK points and ranks 15th in pass DVOA. Fitzpatrick’s currently 51st in the NFL in passer rating (67.6), making him hard to consider as even a flyer in GPPs.
Fitz (knee) is officially questionable and is a so-called game-time decision. He’s practiced all week and is likely to start. If he doesn’t start, Bryce Petty will get the start in his place.
RB – Matt Forte
Even with 14 touches last week, Forte has seen an average of 24.7 touches over the past three games and has also been heavily involved in the red zone. He has scored five touchdowns over the past three games. We know that bad matchups can be overrated for RBs favored at home, especially ones who get a ton of volume, because opportunity is everything. Unfortunately for Forte, the Rams have indeed been tough against the run, ranking seventh in run DVOA. They’ve allowed just one 100-yard rusher on the season (LeSean McCoy). If you’re rostering Forte in GPPs at a low two to four percent projected ownership, you’re hoping for a TD. The good news is that he is tied for fourth in the NFL with 11 opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the past four games.
RB – Bilal Powell
Powell is still seventh in targets among RBs (4.6 per game), but over the last four games Forte owns a 9.76 percent target share to Powell’s 8.94 percent. He also holds the edge in rush attempts:
The workload Forte has seen over the past four weeks would make it hard to trust Powell in cash games, and it definitely limits his upside appeal in GPPs.
WR – Brandon Marshall
Marshall is an elite receiver getting a ton of opportunity in a bad offense. Marshall is fifth in the NFL in target share (27.4 percent) and is the overwhelming leader on the team in market share of Air Yards.
The Rams have allowed the fifth-most receptions to opposing wide receivers, yielding a +1.2 DK Plus/Minus to wideouts. The Rams have allowed four different WRs to hang 100-plus receiving yards on them, most notably Mike Evans, who is similar in size to Marshall. Per our Matchups tool, Marshall is likely to run a lot of his routes against cornerback E.J. Gaines, who offers Pro Football Focus’ 11th-most advantageous matchup of Week 10. Marshall is the fifth-highest rated FD WR in the Cash Model. Marshall carries risk — his offense is very unstable — but he’s in consideration for GPPs at nine to 12 percent projected ownership with a 16.7-point ceiling and a 96 percent FD Bargain Rating.
WR – Quincy Enunwa
Enunwa is now eighth in the league in yards after catch (4.0 per target) and is firmly the No. 2 WR, showing a lot of big-play upside. The Ram’s have struggled to defend No. 2 WRs this year, ranking 30th in the NFL. Per our Trends Tool, home favorite WRs comparable in price and projection typically perform well above salary-based expectations on DK:
That said, temper expectations outside of GPPs. Keep in mind who is throwing to him.
WR – Robby Anderson
Anderson played on 95 percent of the snaps in Week 9 and has six targets in back-to-back games. He seems to be locked in as the No. 3 WR, but unfortunately that still isn’t an attractive role. Anderson is a fringe GPP dart at best, as he’s expected to run most of his routes against Trumaine Johnson, who offers PFF’s fourth-most disadvantageous matchup on the slate.
TE – Austin Seferian-Jenkins
ASJ returned in Week 9. Not that it really matters. The TEs on the Jets have a combined two targets for four yards over the past two weeks.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
