The Week 10 NFL Dashboard
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Dolphins at Chargers
The Chargers are currently 3.5-point home favorites for their Week 10 matchup against the Dolphins. The Chargers are currently implied by Vegas to score 26 points — the fifth-highest mark of Week 10. The Dolphins are currently implied to score 22.5 points.
Miami Dolphins
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Ryan Tannehill
We tried to warn you. If there were ever a candidate to fail in a cupcake matchup against the Jets, it was going to be Tannehill. He now has just two passing touchdowns over his past four games and is squarely in the not-so-good QB category lately, averaging 10.12 FanDuel points over his past five games. This week he will face a Chargers funnel defense that has allowed 30-plus points in five of nine games this season but ranks fifth against the pass according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Tannehill’s projected to be owned in zero to one percent of Sunday Million lineups, but he carries a ton of risk in all formats. He is currently the sixth-lowest rated QB in the Levitan Model. He likely lacks the upside to make that risk worth it even in guaranteed prize pools.
RB – Jay Ajayi
To the extent that Tannehill has done nothing for this offense lately, Ajayi has done everything. He is averaging 26 carries for 176.3 rushing yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game over the past four games. The real story of his performance last week against the Jets was his four targets, a mark he has hit just two other times over his career and not since Week 1 of this season. Involvement in the passing attack was really the only aspect of his game holding him back. If continues to stay involved as a receiver look out. He has a great matchup this week against the Chargers, who defend the pass well, which funnels offense toward their 19th-ranked rush DVOA. We know that opportunity is everything for RBs, and it seems Ajayi finally is being treated like a bell cow in this offense:
He’ll look to keep the good times rolling against a Chargers defense that allows 1.44 total TDs to running backs per game — the fourth-most in the league. Ajayi is priced at $7,800 with a 99 percent Bargain Rating on FD, where he is projected to be owned in 13-16 percent of Sunday Million lineups.
RB – Damien Williams
Five rush attempts per game do not a fantasy asset make.
WR – Jarvis Landry
Landry caught just three passes Sunday even though Kenny Stills (illness) left early and DeVante Parker (hamstring) was limited. Landry was not shadowed by Darrelle Revis. It’s simply odd usage for a player who saw 28 targets over two games against the Jets last year and had seen double-digit targets in each game for the first month of the season. Landry’s extremely low average depth of target and tiny red-zone role make him a relatively undesirable asset without large volume, especially in GPPs. He has a tough matchup this week against a Chargers defense holding opposing WRs to -0.2 points below salary-based expectations over the past 12 months — the third-lowest mark in the slate.
Per our Matchups tool, Landry is likely to run most of his routes against cornerback Brandon Flowers, who has excelled in his limited action this season, earning Pro Football Focus’ 22nd-highest grade among all CBs. Landry is averaging just 8.5 yards and 1.64 fantasy points per target this season. Head Coach Adam Gase has said that he has “to do a better job of getting Jarvis the ball,” so there is some hope for Landry’s prospects. Landry currently ranks as the seventh-highest FD WR in our Cash Model with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
Landry (shoulder) is officially listed as questionable but practiced on Friday and is expected to play.
WR – DeVante Parker
In an offense that has struggled to do much of anything through the air, Parker is second on the team in target market share at 19.1 percent. Parker played on 57 of 64 snaps in Week 9, but constant nagging injuries have frustrated the coaches, who have criticized his work ethic and eating habits. Parker has seen four or fewer targets in four of his last five games and has been held to under 30 yards in five of his last six. He carries risk in cash games, and in GPPs there is still the worry that his hamstring injury could hold him back from making the most of deep targets.
WR – Kenny Stills
The Dolphins thought about deactivating Stills before last week’s game, but they gave him an IV and thought he could play. They were wrong. Stills caught just one pass for 11 yards and then had to go to the locker room. His health is a situation to monitor in Week 10 (use the FantasyLabs News feed), but he’s not an optimal play anyway against a Chargers defense that ranks first in pass DVOA against supplementary WRs.
Stills (calf) is listed as questionable but practiced on Friday and is expected to play.
TE – Dion Sims
Sims (concussion) practiced fully and has cleared the league’s protocol. He’s officially questionable but expected to play.
Still, it’s hard to imagine even in a contrarian universe that he should be in DFS lineups. Tannehill has never paid much attention to his tight ends, as he’s targeted the position on just 13.4 percent of his pass attempts over the past 12 months — the eight-lowest mark in the league. There are likely much better punt plays on the board.
San Diego Chargers
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Philip Rivers
He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of the past two weeks, but (with the emergence of Melvin Gordon) this offense has seen a shift in philosophy that could limit Rivers’ upside. To make matters worse, the Dolphins offer the slate’s third-most disadvantageous matchup in Opponent Plus/Minus. Rivers has the fifth-lowest floor projection of Week 10. Due to this matchup, he’s risky in cash games, but in GPPs there is room for optimism, as QBs comparable in price, situation, and projection have typically performed well above salary-based expectations. Per our Trends Tool:
RB – Melvin Gordon
The Chargers have been riding their star RB. He has 27-plus touches in each of the last four games and is leading the NFL in rush attempts and red zone carries, with 21.4 and 5.2 carries per game. He is also leading the league in TDs and is second in runs of at last 15 yards, per Player Profiler. This game will feature the two starting backs with the highest average Plus/Minus values on the season:
We know that home favored RBs typically return substantial value, placing Gordon squarely in the conversation in both cash games and GPPs. He currently is the fifth-highest rated FD RB in our Cash Model and projects to have the second highest ceiling (24.5) and floor (13.5) at the position. He also has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus and boasts an 89 percent Bargain Rating with a projected ownership of 17-20 percent.
WR – Travis Benjamin
Benjamin (knee) didn’t practice this week and is listed as doubtful after playing sparingly last week. He’s unlikely to play this week and will likely be highly limited if he does play.
WR – Tyrell Williams
Williams is averaging 1.92 fantasy points and 9.9 yards per target — top-25 marks for the position. Williams is tied for sixth in the league in red-zone targets and owns 17.6 and 21.6 percent target shares inside the 20- and 10-yard lines. He’s seventh in the NFL in yards after the catch. Williams has clearly broken out. Though it is a tough matchup on paper for the pass game, the Dolphins have really struggled to defend WR1s, ranking 26th in pass DVOA against them. Rivers will continue to find the Gazelle on slants, routes on which they have been extremely successful. If he continues his involvement in the red zone, Williams will be a fantastic GPP play and is our seventh-highest rated FD WR in our Tournament Model, with a 96 percent Bargain Rating and 13-16 percent projected ownership.
Williams (knee) is officially questionable, but he practiced some this week and is expected to play.
WR – Dontrelle Inman
If Benjamin is out or limited, Inman could be an unreal value at $3400 DK, where he holds an 87 percent Bargain Rating. He already plays more snaps on average than Williams and Benjamin and could benefit from extra targets. Inman is currently rated eighth-highest in the DK Tournament Model with nine to twelve percent projected ownership.
TE – Hunter Henry
Henry (knee) returned to practice this week and is officially questionable for this week’s game. He’s likely to play and could see more action as a slot receiver with Benjamin out/limited and Inman consequently seeing more snaps as an outside receiver.
Still, he’s competing with Antonio Gates for targets and will likely have a limited upside as long as Gates is on the field.
TE – Antonio Gates
With Henry out last week, Gates played 81 percent of the offensive snaps and led the team with three red-zone targets. If you’ve been living under a rock, Gates has 9-plus targets in three straight games and has been absolutely smashing value, especially on DK:
Still underpriced at just $3900 DK, Gates is a strong play in all formats in Week 10. As the fourth-highest rated TE in the Levitan Model, he’s expected to be mega chalky yet again. He has the slate’s second-highest Projected Plus/Minus (4.76 points).
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
