Using our Stacking tool found within our revamped Models 3.0, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Check out our new Correlations page as well to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver
- Matthew Stafford ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
- Marvin Jones ($4,100 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)
Per our NFL News feed, Patrick Peterson is likely to shadow Golden Tate in this matchup. Per our NFL Trends tool, wide receivers had a +1.58 Plus/Minus against the Arizona Cardinals in 2016. That number may not be exciting, but take a look at the wide receivers who put up over 19 DraftKings points against them: Brandin Cooks, Doug Baldwin, Jeremy Kerley (twice), Taylor Gabriel, Brian Quick, and Kenny Stills. Receivers shadowed by Peterson have had little chance to succeed. However, secondary receivers had a lot of success against the Cardinals last year.
If Tate is indeed shadowed by Peterson, there is a huge opportunity for Jones to take more targets in Week 1, especially if tight end Eric Ebron struggles against Tyrann Mathieu. Stafford and Jones both rank in the top three at their positions in the Bales Model for DraftKings. Despite their high ratings, however, Stafford is projected for just two to four percent ownership and Jones at five to eight percent; they make for a contrarian stack in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) with nice upside.
Quarterback + Running Back
- Ben Roethlisberger ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
- Le’Veon Bell ($9,800 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 8.5-point favorites with a 27.25 implied point total; both are the highest marks on the slate (per our Vegas Dashboard). Roethlisberger targeted his running backs on 20.6 percent of his passing attempts over the past year, which ranks fifth on the slate among quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts. At this point, everybody knows about Roethlisberger’s home/road splits. That said, he has opened the season on the road in each of the past two seasons putting up over 300 yards in each game and a total of four touchdowns. On top of that, Bell has averaged 20.46 FanDuel points at home and 20.52 on the road, making him splits neutral. Per the NFL Correlations page, QBs and RBs in games with similar Vegas data have an r-squared correlation value of 0.33.
Running Back + D/ST
- LeSean McCoy ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
- Buffalo Defense ($3,900 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel)
According to the NFL Correlations tool, RB1s and DSTs have a positive correlation of 0.18. Last season, the New York Jets finished as the No. 1 ranked team against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric. However, they are expected to take a significant step back this season thanks to roster turnover, specifically trading away Sheldon Richardson to the Seahawks. McCoy averaged 5.4 yards per rushing attempt last season and also has a significant presence in the passing game, averaging 3.0 receptions per game.
The Bills defense is far and away the highest-rated FanDuel defense in the Bales Model. The Jets are dead last with a 16.0-point implied total and are 8.5-point underdogs. The Bills defense is especially valuable on FanDuel, where their $4,700 salary comes with a 99 percent Bargain Rating. Per the NFL Trends tool, defenses with similar opponent implied point totals have historically hit value 56.9 percent of the time:
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Marcus Mariota ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
- Rishard Matthews ($4,200 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)
- Michael Crabtree ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
The Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans have the second-highest game total at 50.5 points. Mariota is the fourth-highest rated QB in the Bales Model and is a home favorite, which is a positive historical indicator for him. According to the Trends tool, as a home favorite Mariota has averaged a +2.48 Plus/Minus and 57.1 percent Consistency Rating. He also has a great matchup: The Raiders defense ranked 25th in pass DVOA in 2016 and should be bad again this season.
Matthews and Crabtree are the top-two wide receivers in the model currently thanks to excellent data points: Matthews owns a top-five Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings of +5.07, while Crabtree’s floor projection of 8.9 points is tied (with his teammate, Amari Cooper) for the highest among all WRs. Crabtree was Carr’s favorite target in the red zone last season, getting 1.44 red zone opportunities per game compared to just 0.94 for Cooper. While Cooper looked incredible in the preseason, if Carr is going to favor Crabtree again in the red zone, he will always have significant upside; at just 13-16 percent projected ownership, he’s certainly worth exposure in GPPs.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Aaron Rodgers ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
- Jordy Nelson ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
- Randall Cobb ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
- Doug Baldwin ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
The Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks are projected to be in the highest-scoring game on the slate with a 51-point projected game total. Despite taking on one of the best defenses in the league, the Packers are still among the top teams on the slate with an implied point total of 27. Our own Bryan Mears wrote recently about how game stacks are very undervalued in GPPs, and this could be a situation to take advantage of that in Week 1.
Although the game has a high point total, users may shy away from the Packers due to the matchup. That said, there have been 16 instances in which Rodgers has been in a game with a total over 50, and he has exceeded his expectations 75 percent of the time with an average +4.11 Plus/Minus. There’s a reason he’s first among all Week 1 QBs with a Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings of +5.25. And if Rodgers goes off, Baldwin and company could as well: QBs and opposing WR1s have a high correlation value of 0.28.
Good luck this week!
