The Vikings opened as three-point favorites over the Titans, but after Teddy Bridgewater‘s season-ending knee injury, the spread has since moved to Vikings by two. Both the Vikings’ 21.5 implied points and Titans’ 19.5 implied points are in the bottom-12 in Week 1. This matchup’s 41-point total is tied for the lowest in Week 1 and the fantasy pickings are slim between these two run-heavy offenses.
Minnesota Vikings
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Shaun Hill
On Friday, Hill was named the Week 1 starter over Sam Bradford on account of his familiarity with the playbook. Hill holds a low projected ceiling due to the Vikings’ offense revolving around Adrian Peterson, but they do have a decent matchup: Last year the Titans were in the bottom-six in fantasy points and Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks.
RB – Adrian Peterson
The loss of Bridgewater is not good news for Peterson. The Vikings will likely struggle to sustain drives, project to be in the red zone less, and will likely be playing from behind more. The addition of Bradford may not even be an upgrade over Hill considering Bradford has lower career yards-per-attempt and completion percentages. The Titans were a top-10 defense in average running back fantasy points allowed in 2015. Still, Peterson led the league in carries and finished second in red-zone carries in 2015 while also leading the league with 7.6 evaded tackles per game. The uncertainty at quarterback makes AP a risky play in Week 1, and his 11.2 projected floor is the lowest among $7,000-plus DraftKings running backs not named Jamaal Charles.
RB – Jerick McKinnon
The unbelievably-athletic McKinnon has a 155.7 SPARQ-x score, which is in the 100th percentile among all running backs. That’s really good. McKinnon averaged 5.2 yards per attempt on 52 carries a season ago and has averaged 93.75 rushing yards in his four games with 15 or more carries. However, it’s still the AP show, and McKinnon averaged fewer than five touches a game in 2015. Until his usage increases, McKinnon is not a fantasy option.
McKinnon (foot) was limited all week in practice and could miss this game. If he does, even more work would go to Peterson. DFS hero/party crasher Matt Asiata would serve as the backup and likely third-down option.
WR – Stefon Diggs
The loss of Teddy Bridgewater isn’t great news for Diggs’ fantasy value, but considering Bridgewater failed to top 14 passing touchdowns in either of his first two seasons, it’s not unreasonable to think Hill or Bradford could come close to him as a fantasy option. Against a Titans defense in Week 1 that was the fifth-worst in Plus/Minus allowed to the position, look for Hill to pick on Titans cornerback Jason McCourty. Not only does he have the fourth-lowest PFF grade among all Week 1 cornerbacks, but the difference between his and Diggs’ 81.8 mark is the second-highest among all Week 1 wide receiver-cornerback matchups. This matchup will be even more one-sided if Diggs can return to his early season 2015 form when he averaged a +10.4 Plus/Minus through his first four games before failing to top 70 yards in each of the Vikings’ final nine games of the season.
WR – Charles Johnson
Johnson has surpassed 50 yards receiving four times in 23 career games. He has two career touchdowns. Still, Johnson isn’t necessarily a bad receiver; he has great speed and has actually performed well in his four career games with more than six targets:
Johnson hasn’t received this type of usage in awhile, as he received just 13 targets in 11 games a season ago. It’s hard being a fantasy-relevant wide receiver on the second-least pass-happy offense in the NFL.
Johnson (quad) is questionable but expected to play.
WR – Laquon Treadwell
Treadwell has a bright future with Bridgewater and the Vikings, but that future will not come this Sunday. Treadwell totaled just 61 receiving yards on six catches this preseason. He is shockingly priced at $4,500 on DraftKings: He has a Projected Plus/Minus of -7.2, the lowest mark in the league.
TE – Kyle Rudolph
Rudolph’s $3,000 DraftKings salary comes with six DraftKings Pro Trends including the following: An average of three receptions per game over his past 16 games, a Projected Plus/Minus of at least +2.0, and a top-20 percent points-per-dollar mark. Against a Titans defense that finished 2015 in the bottom-eight in Plus/Minus allowed to tight ends, Rudolph is perhaps the receiver best positioned to benefit from Bridgewater’s absence, at least in Week 1. Exposure to Rudolph will come with a two to four percent projected ownership, which is higher than similarly-priced (and projected) options Jordan Cameron and Clive Walford.
Tennessee Titans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Marcus Mariota
Fourteen of Mariota’s 19 passing touchdowns in 2015 came in four games, but he still finished as the 17th-ranked quarterback in DraftKings points per game. Mariota averaged 21 rushing yards per game last year, but this total could slip as the Titans seem content to convert Mariota into a ‘hand-off’ quarterback. One of the most athletically-gifted quarterbacks in the league, Mariota’s 115.4 SPARQ-x score is in the 97th percentile among all quarterbacks. The Vikings were tough against quarterbacks last year, giving up 1.5 less DK points than salary-based expectation to the position. On a team that is ready to run the ball into submission with its two bell-cow running backs, Mariota’s fantasy upside is going to be low as long as the Titans elect to not revolve the offense around him.
RB – DeMarco Murray
Titans coach Mike Mularkey responded with this when asked who the team’s starting running back is: “It’s DeMarco and when DeMarco needs a blow it’s Derrick, or if I feel like we need a change of pace.” Murray dominated first-team reps in the preseason and for the time being appears to have the starting job on lock. Whether Murray will be the guy who led the league with 8.8 evaded tackles per game in 2014 or the guy that averaged just 4.2 in 2015 remains to be seen. Murray did look more like his former self in 2015 when given at least 15 carries:
Murray more than doubled his fantasy point production in his five games with at least 15 carries but still averaged barely over four yards per carry. This is better than his brutal 3.18 average in his other games, but both averages are still far removed from the 4.8 YPC mark Murray posted during his four years in Dallas. The Vikings had a top-10 defense in 2015 in Plus/Minus allowed to running backs, but the Titans’ new power-run scheme will likely feed Murray the ball plenty regardless.
RB – Derrick Henry
Murray is the clear No. 1 back in Tennessee, but Derrick Henry’s electric preseason performances (which totaled 34 rushes for 216 yards and three touchdowns) could be the first step in him earning more touches. Historically, Murray has struggled in a split backfield: His 3.94 yards-per-attempt average in 29 games with less than 15 carries is far below his career 4.6 average. Mularkey has insisted all offseason that he believes power running is the Titans’ best path to victory, and it may not be long until the 6’3″ 247-lb. Henry steals his coach’s heart. This will not happen by Sunday, however.
WR – Tajae Sharpe
Sharpe seized the Titans’ No. 1 receiver title this preseason, compiling 163 receiving yards on just nine receptions. Not many saw this year’s fifth-round pick emerging as the lead option, but Sharpe (6’2″ 194 lbs.) ultimately won the job. Sharpe had over 1,200 receiving yards in his final two years with the Massachusetts Minutemen and even tallied eight receptions for 83 yards against Notre Dame in 2015. Minimum-priced on DraftKings, Sharpe’s Projected Plus/Minus of +4.2 is only behind the marks of Antonio Brown and fellow Titans receiver Rishard Matthews. Sharpe’s nine to 12 percent projected ownership is the result of his late rise up the depth chart, and he faces a Vikings defense that finished 2015 in the top-10 in Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers.
WR – Rishard Matthews
Matthews has impressed when given the opportunity in his career, averaging 14.14 PPR points in his 13 career games with more than five targets:
Matthews’ 2.19 fantasy points per target in 2015 was good for fifth among all wide receivers, and he even averaged the most yards per target with 10.9. Matthews was PFF’s 37th-highest rated wide receiver last year and has the higher Week 1 projected ceiling between him and Sharpe and also boasts lower projected ownership.
WR – Andre Johnson
Kendall Wright is out, which means the 35-year-old Johnson is in. Johnson has the lowest rating in our Tournament Model among all wide receivers.
TE – Delanie Walker
Walker’s volume will likely take a hit with the emergence of Tajae Sharpe and Rishard Matthews, as well as DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry holding down the run game. Still, Walker led all tight ends with 8.9 targets a season ago and figures to still be Mariota’s top target. Walker’s 11 FanDuel Pro Trends are tied for the most in Week 1, and tight end seemed to be the one position to give the Vikings fits a season ago, as evidenced by their bottom-12 rank in Plus/Minus allowed to the position.
