The Packers are currently favored by 4.5 points over the Jaguars. The Packers’ 26.25 implied point total is currently the fifth-highest mark among all teams and they’ve received 82 percent of moneyline bets, the highest percentage of any matchup in Week 1. The Jaguars’ 21.75 implied point total is the 12th-lowest in Week 1 and the game will be played in 90-plus degree temperatures in sunny Jacksonville, Florida.
Green Bay Packers
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Aaron Rodgers
In addition to getting his No. 1 receiver Jordy Nelson back, Rodgers will face a Jaguars defense that owned the third-worst Opponent Plus/Minus mark to quarterbacks in 2015. The Jaguars are a new-look team in 2016, however: They’re adding two top-10 draft picks as defensive starters this season. Defensive end Dante Fowler, the third-overall pick of the 2015 draft, is back after tearing his ACL last May and was college football’s leader in pass rushing productivity on third-and-longs in 2014. Additionally, 2016 fifth-overall pick Jalen Ramsey will be starting at cornerback and was PFF’s highest-graded draft-eligible corner in 2015. Still, Rodgers is a different beast with Nelson on the field, averaging nearly two more yards per pass attempt and four more fantasy points. Rodgers is the second-highest rated quarterback on DraftKings in both our Cash and Tournament Models.
RB – Eddie Lacy
Lacy has reportedly had a solid camp following his P90X-filled offseason. One stat that sticks out from his disappointing 2015 season is his lack of opportunity in the red zone. Lacy averaged 43 red-zone carries the first two years of his career before receiving just 20 such carries in 2015. His putrid 0.66 fantasy points per opportunity, which ranked 63rd among all running backs, was due in large part to his career-low five touchdowns in 2015. Lacy ($6,700 on DraftKings) has a much lower-projected ownership percentage than similarly-priced backs Devonta Freeman and Mark Ingram, and he will face a Jaguars defense that gave up 3.5 points over expectations to running backs on DraftKings last year.
RB – James Starks
Starks has quietly been eating into Lacy’s workload for a few years now. The gap in touches between the two backs has decreased in each of the past two seasons, and this shift in usage has been warranted: Starks has a higher yards-per-carry average since Lacy joined the Packers in 2013. Starks particularly balled out early in 2015:
Even as Lacy’s clear backup, Starks managed a Plus/Minus of +4.7 through the Packers’ first eight games of 2015. While Lacy is the presumed bell-cow in Week 1, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Starks reach his 2015 average of nearly 12 touches.
WR – Jordy Nelson
Nelson didn’t play at all this preseason and has even admitted to discussing a snap count with coach Mike McCarthy. Nelson will certainly play, but how much seems to be anyone’s guess in Week 1. A healthy Nelson could resume his role as one of the league’s most consistently-explosive receivers. In 2014 he averaged 10.1 yards per target, good for fifth among all wide receivers. Nelson is the 10th-most expensive wide receiver on the DraftKings main slate. The Jaguars gave up 2.2 DraftKings points over expectation to wide receivers last year.
WR – Randall Cobb
The only person on the Packers happier than Rodgers to have Nelson back may be Cobb. Since 2013, Cobb has averaged over five more PPR points per game with Nelson on the field. Cobb’s targets are very similar in both situations, meaning he has simply been a better, more efficient receiver alongside Nelson. Cobb faces a Jaguars secondary that finished 2015 in the bottom-12 in Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers, although the unit will look much different this year with the additions of Prince Amukamara and Ramsey. He is a better value on FanDuel at $7,200; he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating there.
WR – Davante Adams
Adams’ efficiency was historically bad in 2015, but he’ll open the year as the Packers’ third receiver this time. Adams’ 1.11 fantasy points per target ranked 111th among all receivers last year. If Adams sees seven targets a game again in 2016 that likely means something went terribly wrong in the offense. Even with Nelson potentially playing on a snap count, Adams doesn’t present much upside with more efficient weapons elsewhere in the offense.
TE – Jared Cook
Cook balled out this preseason. He caught nine passes for 85 yards and scored a touchdown. He also played on 19 of 25 snaps with Aaron Rodgers in the third preseason game — including 10 of 13 pass plays. Rodgers is by far the best quarterback Cook has ever had, which should help Cook’s consistency: He has totaled less than 30 receiving yards in over 50 percent of his career games. Cook is $2,900 on DK and has a 96 percent Bargain Rating there. He faces a Jacksonville defense that allowed the sixth-highest average fantasy points to tight ends in 2015.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Blake Bortles
Bortles has faced some criticism this offseason with the assertion that most of his stats came via “garbage time.” That wasn’t exactly the case, however, and the more relevant narrative should be Bortles finishing the year with the fifth-most DK points among quarterbacks. The Jaguars brought in Chris Ivory in part to help with their red-zone offense, but Bortles tied for the league-lead with 97 attempts inside the 20-yard line, so even a small decrease will leave Bortles with plenty of opportunities to accumulate red-zone touchdowns. Additionally, he is not afraid to try to pick up points fast: Bortles had the most deep ball attempts (20 yards or more in the air) in the league with 6.9 per game. The Packers allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in 2015, but Bortles still holds the seventh-highest projected floor among all quarterbacks on DraftKings.
RB – T.J. Yeldon
Yeldon may not be the fastest or biggest back, but he knows how to make guys miss: His 35.8 percent juke rate (evaded tackles per touch) ranked eighth in the league last year. Yeldon’s biggest ‘issue’ in 2015 was that he scored only two rushing touchdowns. With less carries inside the five-yard line than teammates Denard Robinson and Toby Gerhart, it was clear the Jaguars did not see Yeldon as a source of touchdowns once they got around the goal line. Ivory will be the goal line back in 2016 and Yeldon will need to accumulate his points between the 20s. Against a Packers defense that finished 2015 in the top-10 in Plus/Minus allowed to running backs, Yeldon projects as the higher-scoring Jaguars running back, in part thanks to his average of three receptions per game.
RB – Chris Ivory
Ivory had the most carries in the league inside the five-yard line in 2015 and signed with the Jaguars to be the thunder to Yeldon’s lightning. This split backfield may sound great in theory, but Ivory struggled last year when he wasn’t relied on as ‘the guy’:
Running backs obviously need opportunities to accumulate fantasy points, but this is still a pretty astounding split, especially considering Ivory’s yard-per-carry average dropped by over half a yard in games when he received less than 20 carries. The Jaguars’ projected running back split seems to be 50/50, but Ivory’s red-zone presence still makes him a weekly option even if his efficiency falls off. Exposure to Ivory should be concentrated on FanDuel where his projected ownership is interestingly lower than on DraftKings.
Ivory (calf) is questionable for Week 1 but expected to be active.
WR – Allen Robinson
Bortles will finally have his full arsenal of weapons in 2016 with Julius Thomas, Rashad Greene and Marqise Lee all ready to go. The trio combined to miss 17 games in 2015, but even with everyone healthy during the Jaguars’ final seven games Robinson still went off:
While he could feasibly lose a chunk of his 151 targets from a season ago, he still averaged 2.01 fantasy points per target, the 13th-highest average in the league. Robinson will see plenty of PFF’s top-20 rated cornerback Sam Shields, and he faces a Packers defense that finished 2015 as a top-10 unit in Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers.
WR – Allen Hurns
Hurns finished 2015 as the 22nd-ranked receiver in DraftKings points per game with over 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. He accomplished this on just 105 targets, accumulating 9.8 yards per target and averaging 2.15 fantasy points per target, good for ninth and eighth in the league, respectively. The main knock on Hurns is that over 75 percent of his yards and touchdowns came when the Jaguars were trailing. Vegas has increased the Jaguars’ win total from 5.5 to 7.5 in 2016 and this idea that the team could improve has led to an assumption that Hurns will regress. It may be hard for Hurns to prove his haters wrong in Week 1; even if he avoids Shields, PFF’s top-30 rated cornerback Quinten Rollins will be waiting.
WR – Marqise Lee
Lee has never surpassed 75 receiving yards in a game and has averaged just 45 receiving yards in five career games with eight or more targets. With Projected Plus/Minus’ of -2.4 and -1.9 on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively, Lee is not in play for Week 1.
TE – Julius Thomas
Thomas’ average of 6.67 targets in 2015 actually surpassed his 5.63 average during his two years as Peyton Manning‘s go-to tight end. The problem for Thomas isn’t opportunity, it seems. He’s posted similar per-game target numbers inside the 10-yard line with both quarterbacks but caught just 42.9 percent of these passes from Bortles compared to 82.3 percent from Manning. Thomas’ integration into the Jaguars’ offense won’t be helped by the Packers’ top-12 defense in Plus/Minus allowed to tight ends.
