Lions at Colts
The Lions and Colts implied Vegas total of 51.5 points is currently the highest among any Week 1 matchup. The Colts, 3.5-point favorites, are implied to score 27.5 points. The Lions are implied to score 24 points but face a beat-up Colts defense missing several starters. The Lions travel to Lucas Oil Stadium and could take part in the first shootout of 2016.
Detroit Lions
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Matthew Stafford
The Lions called the fourth-most pass plays in the league in 2015, and this tendency isn’t likely to change in 2016. Of course, the team will be without Calvin Johnson, and Stafford has historically struggled without Megatron. Johnson has only missed six of Stafford’s 93 career starts, but Stafford averaged nearly five fewer points per game without his No. 1 receiver. His absence might be especially crucial near the goal line in 2016, as Stafford was the second-most accurate quarterback in the red zone in 2015, with a gaudy 26/0 TD/INT ratio. His $7,400 FanDuel salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent and his +3.2 Projected Plus/Minus is tied for fifth among all quarterbacks.
RB – Ameer Abdullah
Abdullah is the starting back in Detroit, but this title isn’t all it’s made out to be. Theo Riddick is the undisputed receiving back and Zach Zenner is likely the goal-line back. Abdullah totaled 15 or more touches just three times in 2015 and averaged just 0.66 fantasy points per opportunity (per Player Profiler). The Lions finished 2015 in the bottom five in total explosive runs, but Abullah will benefit from facing a Colts defensive line missing Henry Anderson, one of PFF’s top-25 interior defensive linemen against the run last year.
RB – Theo Riddick
Riddick had just 43 carries in 2015, but his 80 receptions were tied for the most in the league among running backs. This pass-catching presence helped him post an unreal season long 86.7 percent Consistency on DraftKings in 2015:
Riddick combined a sterling Plus/Minus of +5.57 with a 42.3 percent juke rate, second-highest in the league (per Player Profiler). He is $900 cheaper than Abdullah on DraftKings and offers a higher Ceiling and Floor, per our Player Models.
WR – Golden Tate
With the retirement of Johnson, Tate is the No. 1A receiver in Detroit next to 1B Marvin Jones. Now entering his third season with Stafford, Tate has seldom played without Johnson but has averaged an impressive 8-116-0.67 line in three games as Detroit’s lead wide receiver. Overall, he has accumulated nearly 10 more PPR points without Johnson on the field. An increased focus on Tate is expected from the Colts’ secondary, but it may not matter with dominant cornerback Vontae Davis (ankle) on the shelf. Exposure should be focused on FanDuel, where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating at $6,900, tied for 22nd among wide receivers.
Tate (ankle) was limited early in the week but returned to full practice on Thursday. He’s questionable for Week 1 but seems very likely to play.
WR – Marvin Jones
The word is out on the former Bengal, as Jones has dominated practices and showed up big in the preseason (8-106-0 on just 68 snaps). The Lions pass-happy ways could make Jones one of the most popular plays on DraftKings, as his current 21-25 percent projected ownership is tied for the second-highest among all receivers. His projected points per $1000 is third-best among wide receivers on the slate. The Colts finished 2015 as a bottom-10 defense in Plus/Minus allowed to wide receivers.
WR – Anquan Boldin
The Lions are only carrying four wide receivers on their roster (Jones, Tate, Boldin and Andre Roberts) plus Eric Ebron. This is great news for Boldin, who will play in the slot for three-wide sets and see a ton of single coverage from nickel corners. However, Boldin carries a -2.3 Projected Plus/Minus into Week 1, as Stafford has historically failed to get his third receiver consistently involved in the offense: Nate Burleson’s 2013 line of 39-461-1 is the best performance in the past three years.
TE – Eric Ebron
Ebron returned to practice Monday after missing several weeks due to an ankle injury. He is positioned to have an increased role this season, but this may not make a huge difference in his fantasy outlook: He has yet to grade positively as a receiver in his two-year career (per PFF). Additionally, in five career games with seven or more targets, Ebron has averaged just 3.6 receptions for 31.4 receiving yards and 0.4 touchdowns. Still, he did convert three of his four targets inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns last year. That’s a small sample, but it’s one that is almost certain to increase in 2016 without Johnson. While getting exposure to Ebron is a risk due to the injury and the mystery surrounding how many snaps he will play, he carries the second-highest ceiling projection among all tight ends with a projected ownership of four percent or less.
Ebron (ankle) is questionable but practiced all week and is expected to play.
Indianapolis Colts
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Andrew Luck
Through the Colts’ first three games of 2015, Luck posted a brutal Plus/Minus of -4.35. In hindsight, this was likely due to his injured shoulder, as after missing the next two games Luck was back to his dominant self:
His Plus/Minus of +5.29 was even more impressive considering that Luck’s final four opponents allowed substantially fewer points to quarterbacks on average than his first three opponents. The Colts called the ninth-most pass plays in 2015 with just seven games of Luck. Don’t expect them not to throw the ball against a Lions defense that finished 2015 in the bottom 12 in Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks.
RB – Frank Gore
Gore’s career-worst 3.7 yards per carry in 2015 is obviously a red flag for the 33-year-old veteran, but Gore did perform better during Luck’s aforementioned strong four-game stretch. Gore’s Plus/Minus of +3.30 with a healthy Luck was complemented by a 4.1 yards/carry average, but he still finished the season tied with Bilal Powell (lol) for 24th in DraftKings points per game among running backs.
Gore’s outlook for the entire 2016 season isn’t great — since 2000 no running backs at least 33 years old have had over 1,000 yards rushing — but Gore’s eight FD Pro Trends are tied for fifth among all running backs in Week 1. He has averaged 3.6 targets and 16 carries per game over his past 16 games, and the Lions defense finished 2015 in the top 10 in Plus/Minus allowed to running backs.
RB – Josh Ferguson
Robert Turbin is Gore’s two-down backup running back, but the undrafted Ferguson could get more touches due to his receiving abilities. He had 10 catches for 74 receiving yards this preseason, which partially offsets his comically bad 15 rushing yards on 19 carries. Ferguson won’t be a fantasy option unless the Colts switch to a two-back system. We have no reason to believe that will happen.
WR – T.Y. Hilton
As was the case with most Colts skill-position players, Hilton struggled in 2015 but came alive during Luck’s post-shoulder injury month-long stretch:
He finished 2015 as the 29th receiver in DraftKings points per game, but the four game stretch above extrapolated over 16 games would have ranked Hilton 17th, much closer to what most had in mind for his fourth season with Luck. There is reason to believe that the emergence of Donte Moncrief in the Colts offense is holding back Hilton just a bit: In two games over the past two seasons without Moncrief on the field, Hilton has averaged a 9-144-0.5 stat line. Still, Hilton should be locked in to his yearly 130-plus targets. He is a better play on FanDuel this week, as his $6,800 salary has a 100 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Donte Moncrief
Darius Slay, PFF’s No. 6 corner last season, is likely to see plenty of Hilton and/or Moncrief. Last year, Slay did spend a majority (64 percent) of his time at LCB — where Moncrief ran a small majority of his routes (58 percent). At 6’2″ and 221 lbs. and scoring five TDs on just 12 red-zone targets last year, Moncrief is set for an eruption now that Luck is healthy and the injured Colts defense is in tatters. His 17-20 percent DraftKings projected ownership is tied for fourth among all receivers, but he does have a higher ceiling than more expensive receivers Jeremy Maclin and Doug Baldwin.
WR – Phillip Dorsett
Dorsett can fly — he ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash at the 2015 NFL combine — but his next 40-yard catch in the NFL will be his first. More concerning is his 46.2 percent catch rate which ranked in the bottom 15 among the 132 receivers to be targeted at least 30 times last year. The Colts base offense will largely consist of three-wide receiver sets, which should lead to more opportunities for Dorsett. What he’ll make of that opportunity is unclear: his 1.21 fantasy points/target ranked 101st in 2015.
TE – Dwayne Allen
In four career games without Coby Fleener in the lineup, Allen has averaged more than two additional receptions and nearly 30 more yards. He has also averaged three more PPR points per game without Fleener, but this average of 9.53 PPR points would have ranked Allen as just the 20th tight end in DraftKings points per game in 2015. His 0.56 yards per route run was the lowest among all tight ends with at least 185 routes run (per PFF), but the Lions did struggle against tight ends in 2015, finishing in the bottom five in Plus/Minus allowed to the position.
