Giants at Cowboys
This game has a 46-point Vegas total and is currently a pick’em. The Cowboys, playing at home, are one-point favorites, implied to score 23.5 points. The visiting Giants are implied to score 22.5 points. The Cowboys originally opened as 3.5-point favorites. Currently, 70 percent of spread bets have been placed on the Giants.
New York Giants
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Eli Manning
Pro Football Focus recently ranked all 32 secondaries entering the 2016 season. Manning’s opponent, the Cowboys, ranked 30th. Eli’s current 30.8-point projected ceiling is tenth on the slate, and he currently rates ninth in the Adam Levitan Player Model for FanDuel. Per our Trends tool, when priced from $7,000 to $7,400 on FD and in games where the Giants have an implied point total between 21 and 25, Manning has provided a +5.64 Plus/Minus with 62.5 percent Consistency. At projected ownership of two to four percent in the Sunday Million, Manning (with a frightening 6.0-point projected floor) is worth the risk.
RB – Rashad Jennings
Football Outsiders ranked Dallas 29th against the run the last season in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). The Cowboys allowed the fifth-most rushing touchdowns (13), seventh-most rushing yards (1,684), and sixth-highest fantasy points per game to running backs (24.6) in 2015. If the Giants have abandoned that weird four-man running back by committee they employed last season — and by all accounts they have — this sets up as a great matchup for Jennings. During the final four games of last season (when the Giants featured him), Jennings produced a +10.56 Plus/Minus with just 3.0 percent ownership on FD, where he holds a 98 percent Bargain Rating this week.
RB – Shane Vereen
Vereen is currently the 12th-rated DraftKings running back in the Bales Player Model. Dallas allowed 95 catches (eighth-most) and 836 yards (sixth-most) to running backs last season. The Cowboys defense allowed a +2.1 Plus/Minus to the position on DK. Vereen has averaged five targets per game the past year, which is the second-highest target total during that time (four other backs averaged six). Per our Trends tool, running backs priced from $3,600 to $4,000 on DK and averaging between four to six targets per game have historically generated a +2.22 Plus/Minus.
WR – Odell Beckham
As previously mentioned, PFF projects only two secondaries in the NFL to suck more than the Cowboys secondary this season. Per our Matchups page, Beckham will burn line up against Morris Claiborne primarily, but Brandon Carr presents an equally appetizing matchup. The two Cowboys cornerbacks had two of the 21 worst PFF grades in 2015, and Football Outsiders ranked Dallas 30th at defending No. 1 receivers. Per our Trends tool, Beckham has historically had 14.1 percent ownership on FD, where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating this week. On DK, he’s been owned at a 17.9 percent clip.
WR – Sterling Shepard
We’ve already established that Dallas’ cornerbacks played poorly in 2015, and thanks to OBJ the first-year Shepard should see plenty of single coverage against them. NFL.com’s Matt Harmon (who knows a sh*t-ton about evaluating WRs) planted a flag on Shepard, so I’ll defer to his analysis. Harmon calls Shepard an “instant impact player” and says “we should not rule out a truly special rookie season.” Who am I to argue that the instant impact and special season won’t start in Week 1 for a guy who was one of the best receivers in college last year?
WR – Dwayne Harris
If you’re looking to the third rung of the Giants’ wide receiving corps, would you prefer to roster Victor Cruz, who hasn’t been healthy since the 1990s? — Or a player who recorded career highs in receptions (36), receiving yards (396), and touchdown receptions (four) last season? Harris also returns punts for the Giants, giving him opportunities to score in multiple ways. In large field tournaments, a correlation stack with the Giants DST is intriguing.
TE – Larry Donnell
In 2015, the Dallas defense ranked third defending tight ends (per FO’s DVOA), and in a recent Rotoworld article by Brian Malone the Cowboys were named one of the leagues worst matchups for tight ends. They allowed an NFL-low 52 receptions and 535 yards to the position last season. While Donnell’s price on DK is attractive, keep in mind that similarly priced tight ends facing comparable defenses have averaged a -1.12 Plus/Minus, and only 26 of 88 players have met or exceeded their paltry salary-based expectations.
Dallas Cowboys
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Dak Prescott
The No. 1 quarterback in the CSURAM88 Model, Prescott is light years ahead of all other quarterbacks on both DK and FD in Projected Plus/Minus, and he has the fourth-highest projected floor on both sites. Not surprisingly, our projected ownership for him in Player Models is also off the charts, earning him the moniker ‘Preschalk.’ The Giants allowed the most yards (4,920), fifth-most passing touchdowns (31) and, second-most fantasy points per game (20.3) to quarterbacks in 2015.
RB – Ezekiel Elliott
Per The Fantasy Authority, offensive coordinator Scott Linehan called 42.11 percent running plays last season, the 10th-highest percentage in the league. With a rookie quarterback behind center in Week 1, and PFF’s No. 1 offensive line playing against a Giants defense that allowed the eighth-most rushing yards (1,677) and fifth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs (13) last season, it’s safe to assume Linehan won’t shy away from feeding Zeke the rock. Running backs with comparable projected floors and ceilings have generated a +3.37 Plus/Minus with 67.4 percent Consistency and an average ownership of 10.6 percent on FD (where Elliott’s Bargain Rating is 98 percent).
RB – Lance Dunbar
Reports out of Dallas are that Dunbar will be active for this game against the Giants. He has recovered from an ACL injury and been practicing for the past two weeks. Dunbar looked poised for a big PPR year after he caught eight balls for 70 yards against the Giants in Week 1 last season. Per our Trends tool, in the four games Dunbar played before the injury in 2015, he manufactured a +7.71 Plus/Minus with 75.0 percent Consistency. Stacking Dunbar with Prescott could help differentiate a Cowboys stack, as Dunbar is projected at zero to one percent ownership in DK’s Millionaire Maker.
Dunbar (knee) is set to return from last season’s ACL injury. He seems likely to play in Week 1.
WR – Dez Bryant
Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Bryant’s PPR points, receptions, yards, and touchdowns per game all suffer when he plays without Tony Romo. The one thing that hasn’t changed is his targets, which actually increase from 8.41 to 8.88 per game with Romo sidelined. Football Outsiders ranked the Giants pass defense 28th in 2015, and their Plus/Minus allowed to the position is a chunky +2.70. Players averaging at least 7.5 targets per game and playing against a bad pass defense have yielded a +3.49 Plus/Minus on DK with 57.1 percent Consistency and an average ownership of 13.4 percent.
Bryant (concussion) was not on the Week 1 injury report. He’s playing in Week 1.
WR – Terrance Williams
Per our Matchups page, Williams is expected to run the majority of his routes against Giants cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who was PFF’s 15th-best corner in the NFL last season. In Williams’ favor is his 91 percent Bargain Rating on DK, where he is priced at just $3,300. Predicting when Williams will have a big week is risky business, but since 2014 Williams has provided a +5.66 Plus/Minus when priced at $3,500 or below on DK.
WR – Cole Beasley
The Cowboys slot receiver has not seen enough targets to produce on a consistent basis, but he’s a sneaky little fellow around the end zone. Beasley has just a 14.5 percent Target Market Share but a 31.3 percent Receiving Touchdown Market Share over the past 12 months. Wide receivers priced below $3,500 on DK with comparable Target and Receiving Touchdown Market Shares have generated a +5.65 Plus/Minus. The Giants slot corner, Leon Hall, is dealing with a concussion, so our Matchups page has Beasley lined up against rookie Eli Apple.
TE – Jason Witten
The Giants defense against tight ends last season was horrific. To tight ends they allowed 92 receptions (fourth-most), 1,199 yards (second-most), and 18.5 DK points per game (second-most) in 2015. The Giants have allowed a league-worst +5.30 Plus/Minus to tight ends on DK. Per the RotoViz game splits app, Witten has averaged more receptions, yards, and targets per game when playing without Romo. He’s very safe, even with Dak throwing him passes. Witten’s current 7.4-point projected floor is ninth-highest on the slate.
