Steelers at Redskins
Monday’s Steelers-Redskins game boasts the third-highest Vegas total at 50 points. The Steelers are currently favored by three on the road and have an implied team total of 26.5, which is the third-highest mark in Week 1. The Redskins have an implied team total of 23.5.
Steelers
Writer: Zach Rabinovitz
QB – Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben has the sixth-highest projection and second-highest ceiling among quarterbacks on FanDuel. However, despite his high projections, Roethlisberger has struggled in games without Martavis Bryant.
While Antonio Brown is essentially matchup-proof, the Redskins field two very good corners in Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland. Ben’s Projected Plus/Minus of +0.8 is the third-lowest mark of the week on FanDuel.
RB – DeAngelo Williams
Williams is the third-highest rated running back in the Adam Levitan Model. The weakness of the Redskins defense is clearly on the ground: They had the second-highest rushing success rate allowed and the 11th-worst red-zone TD rate allowed among defenses last year.
As the clear workhorse back in a high-scoring game, Williams’ Projected Plus/Minus of +5.4 on FD is only behind the chalky Spencer Ware‘s and Christine Michael‘s. However, at projected 13 to 16 percent ownership, he won’t be sneaky in tournaments.
WR – Antonio Brown
Despite being the most expensive receiver on FD ($9,300) and facing Breeland and Norman, Brown still has the largest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate at +4.3. He is coming off a 2015 season in which he averaged 113 yards per game and was incredibly efficient: He posted a 13.4 yards-per-reception mark and 8.9 yards-per-target mark. Only Julio Jones can compete with those numbers in the NFL.
The issue with Brown in Week 1 is popularity: We currently have his ownership projection between 26 to 30 percent. However, because of Bryant’s absence and Markus Wheaton possibly not playing, Brown should be in line for one of the highest target totals of the week. He’s scary to fade.
WR – Sammie Coates
Starter Markus Wheaton (shoulder) has been ruled out for Week 1 and the second-year Sammie Coates seems likely to start in his place on the outside. Eli Rogers will stay in the slot. Per our Matchups page, Coates is set to match up against Josh Norman, at least when he’s not shadowing Antonio.
WR – Eli Rogers
Rogers spent his entire rookie year on the IR but is set to start 2016 as the primary slot receiver for the Steelers. Rogers had a production preseason, catching 10 of 13 targets for 84 yards, but he has a very low five-point projection on FD. He would receive a small bump if Wheaton can’t go, but he’s still a GPP flyer at best.
TE – Jesse “The Outlaw” James
Jesse James was not drafted until the fifth round in 2015 but was considered one of the stars of the NFL Combine. At 6’7”, James is eight inches taller than any of the three starting receivers for the Steelers. He has a very low projected ceiling of 8.0 FD points, but given the other (now dwindling) options for the Steelers, he could find himself with a couple red-zone opportunites on Monday night. Still, he’s a very risky GPP play.
Washington Redskins
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Kirk Cousins
The Steelers defense allowed 4,664 yards (third-most) and 29 touchdowns (12th-most) to quarterbacks in 2015. Pro Football Focus ranked their secondary 21st heading into the 2016 season.
Cousins has been a different quarterback when both DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed are healthy. According to the RotoViz Game Splits App, Cousins has averaged 262.33 yards, 1.76 touchdowns, and 21.96 fantasy points per game when both Jackson and Reed play with him. Per our Trends tool, quarterbacks priced between $7,500 to $8,100 on FanDuel (where Cousins has an 87 percent Bargain Rating this week, by the way) with projected ceilings between 30.1 to 32.7 have delivered a +4.08 Plus/Minus with excellent 77.8 percent Consistency and 9.2 percent average ownership in large tournaments. You like that?
RB – Matt Jones
Jones was a full participant in practice on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. While Washington hasn’t officially declared him ready for Monday night yet, Coach Jay Gruden said he was a “tough guy” and “ran around nice” in practice. The Redskins have only three running backs on their active roster, and with Jones healthy enough to go, he projects for large volume. That said, Pittsburgh allowed just 1,234 rushing yards (sixth-fewest in the NFL) and four rushing touchdowns (second-fewest) last season. Given the matchup and injury concerns, he’s a GPP-only play in Week 1.
RB – Chris Thompson
Thompson has been very efficient: He ranked ninth in the league among RBs with 1.12 fantasy points per opportunity in 2015. Unfortunately, the opportunities just haven’t been there. Per our Trends tool, running backs with comparable salaries and opportunities have yielded a -0.49 Plus/Minus on DK.
RB – Rob Kelley
If you’re choosing to go with Jones on DK, at least you’ll have the comparably-priced Kelley available for a late Monday swap should Jones’ shoulder unexpectedly flare up again before kickoff. Kelley’s 198 preseason rushing yards were the second-most among rookies and third-most overall. Some writers in Washington believe that Kelley has earned regular season carries even with a healthy Jones.
WR – DeSean Jackson
Jackson apparently added seven pounds of muscle in the offseason and all reports out of Washington indicate he’s ready for a special season. The Steelers defense allowed a +4.6 Plus/Minus to receivers on DK last year, the highest mark in the NFL. Per our Trends tool, in Jackson’s last three Monday night appearances, he has generated a +13.0 Plus/Minus with 100.0 percent Consistency on DK. He’s averaged 23.77 points per game and hasn’t scored less than 19.00 DK points in those games.
WR – Pierre Garcon
Per our Matchups tool, Garcon will be lined up opposite Steelers cornerback William Gay for the majority of the game. According to Pro Football Focus’ grading system, Garcon has the slight advantage in this matchup. As noted above, the Steelers allow a huge Plus/Minus to receivers on DK, where Garcon — priced at $4,400 in Week 1 — has an 87 percent Bargain Rating. Historically, receivers priced between $3,900 and $4,900 and playing comparable defenses have provided a +2.45 Plus/Minus with 68.2 percent Consistency and an average ownership of 8.7 percent on DK.
WR – Jamison Crowder
Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Crowder’s production takes a huge hit when DeSean Jackson plays. With an elite pass-catching tight end like Jordan Reed on the field, a healthy Jackson, and Garcon getting targets, Crowder is the fourth option in this offense at best.
TE – Jordan Reed
Reed is currently the third-highest rated tight end in Adam Levitan’s Player Model. The dude is a complete freak, especially in the red zone: Reed ranked first in the league in both red-zone receptions (16) and red-zone target share (31.5 percent) in 2015. The Steelers allowed 136 targets (sixth-most in the NFL) and 85 receptions (seventh-most) to tight ends last season. Per our Trends tool, tight ends with comparable red-zone opportunity and high market share marks have produced a +6.84 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with 71.4 percent Consistency and 10.0 percent ownership in large tournaments. Reed has a 95 percent Bargain Rating on FD this week and is priced $1,300 less than Rob Gronkowski. He will easily be the highest-owned TE.
