Week 1 of the NFL season is here, and while we’re excited about having football back in our lives, the beginning of a new season is full of challenges. With new coaching staff and players joining new teams, many offenses have questions around their pace of play and how they’ll distribute the ball.
Check out a few games to target in Week 1, and a few you might want to shy away from.
Also, don’t forget to check out our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Games to Target
Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans
Two of the fastest teams in the NFL square off in a Week 1 matchup with a game total currently at 52 points.
Arizona ranked second in the league in seconds per snap last season, running a play on average every 24 seconds and ranked second in plays, averaging 69 plays per game at a 56%/44% pass-run split. Dual-threat quarterback Kyler Murray should keep the high-powered offense moving down the field, relying on primary weapon DeAndre Hopkins, who was responsible for 29% of the target share last year, averaging 8.79 yards per target.
The Cardinals will face a Titans defense that allowed 27 points per game last season, the ninth-highest in the league, and allowed 398 yards per game, 277 of which through the air.
With the signing of former Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones, the Tennessee Titans have been the talk of the NFL. Jones’s addition to the Titans receiving corps gives quarterback Ryan Tannehill an additional high-powered weapon opposite A.J. Brown, who led the team last season with a 25% target share, averaging 10.12 yards per target.
Last season, the Titans ranked 15th in plays called, averaging 66 plays per game and calling a play every 25 seconds, the sixth-highest in the league. Tennessee used a 49%/51% run-pass, relying heavily on their workhorse running back Derrick Henry. Last season, Henry averaged 23.6 rushing attempts per game, the most of any running back, leading the league in rushing yards (2,027) and touchdowns (17).
The Cardinals defense allowed the 11th-highest rushing yards to opponents last season, averaging 125 yards per game, and should look to improve with the addition of J.J. Watt on defense.
This game has the potential to be a very high-scoring affair, and both sides seem stackable. Per our Correlation Dashboard, opposing quarterbacks have a 0.59 positive correlation to the other quarterback, which bodes well for the fantasy output of Murray and Tannehill.
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons
The Eagles look to improve the passing game with second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts, throwing the fifth-fewest yards per game, averaging 207.9 yards. Despite a 55% completion percentage—the lowest in the league, the team ranked second in pace, calling a play every 24 seconds and averaged 69 plays per game. Philly also used a 62%/38% pass-to-run split and called the sixth-most pass plays.
Last season, the Atlanta Falcons defense allowed 25.9 points per game, averaging the fourth-most yards per game with 398.4. Unsurprisingly, they ranked last in passing yards allowed, averaging 293.8 yards per game.
Led by veteran quarterback Matt Ryan, the Falcons ranked fifth in passing yards per game, averaging 272.2 yards. Like their opponent, they run a play on average every 24 seconds, using a 62%/38% pass/run split to call 69 plays per game. Look for Calvin Ridley to lead the receiving corps, picking up extra targets with the absence of Julio Jones. Ridley led the team last season with a 25% target share, catching 90 passes for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns.
The Eagles allowed 26.1 points per game to opponents last season, giving up an average of 363 yards per game. Philadelphia should give Ryan plenty of opportunities to keep the offense moving.
Proceed with Caution
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
A battle between two AFC East rivals comes loaded with questions, currently carrying a 43.5-point total. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones is QB1 for New England, leading an offense that ran 62 plays per game last season, the third-fewest in the league. The Patriots’ offense also ranked 24th in seconds per snap, running a play at a methodical 26.8 seconds. With quarterback Cam Newton, the team opted for a 49%/51% pass-to-run rate, averaging 30 rushing plays per game.
Averaging 180.6 yards per game through the air, New England ranked 30th in passing and is hoping to improve with Jones at quarterback. Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne join Jakobi Meyers as the likely targets for Jones this season. Last season, Meyers was responsible for 22% of the target share, leading the team and averaging nine yards per target.
The Week 1 matchup will be a tough test for Jones, facing a Dolphins defense that allowed the sixth-fewest points per game last season while allowing just 21.1 points per game. Despite limiting opponents in the end zone, the team allowed the 12th-most yards per game, averaging 367.9 yards, struggling to limit damage through the air, allowing 251.1 passing yards per game.
Like their opponent, the Dolphins were methodical in moving the ball down the field, working at the fourth-slowest pace in the league, running a play every 27 seconds. Using a 58%/42% pass-to-run split, Miami averaged 66 plays per game, with a 13% no-huddle rate.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa should benefit from a new weapon to the receiving corps in rookie Jaylen Waddle, and DeVante Parker will likely be the preferred targets for Tagovailoa. Last season, Parker led the team with a 21% target share, averaging seven yards per target.
The Dolphins should have a difficult test ahead of them, facing a New England Patriots defense that allowed 358 yards per game to opponents last season and had the eighth-best pass defense, only allowing 222 yards per game through the air.
New York Giants at Denver Broncos
The lowest total on the slate with a 41.5-point over/under, Sunday’s Week 1 meeting between the New York Giants and Denver Broncos looks to be a run-first matchup.
The Giants look hopeful with the return of Saquon Barkley, who may be limited in Week 1 after recovering from an ACL injury. Last season, the Giants ranked 28th in plays, averaging 63 plays per game, calling a play every 26 seconds. Interestingly, they ranked second in no-huddle rate at 25%.
Using a balanced approach, New York used a 59%/41% pass-to-run split, with quarterback Daniel Jones relying on a receiving corps of Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Darius Slayton, and Golden Tate, who were collectively responsible for 78% of the target share. New addition Kenny Golladay should provide a spark to the offense and should be the primary weapon for Jones.
Scoring points looked to be an issue for the Giants offense last season, averaging 17.5 points per game and only scoring more than the New York Jets. The Giants will face a Broncos defense that allowed 27 points per game to opponents last season and 376 yards per game.
The Broncos have a new play-caller with Teddy Bridgewater under center, looking to turn around a team that had the seventh-fewest passing yards per game last season with 215. They ranked 15th in plays called, averaging 66 per game, running a play every 24 seconds, the fifth-fastest, using a pass-heavy 57%/43% split. Denver welcomes the return of Courtland Sutton, who missed most of the 2020 season with an ACL injury. In 2019, Sutton led the team with a 25% target share.
The Broncos will face a Giants defense that allowed the ninth-fewest average yards per game (349) and the ninth-fewest points per game last season at 22.3 points per game.
