In the weekly Fantasy Trends, I leverage the Trends tool to find quarterbacks, wide receivers and, running backs with notable data point for the upcoming main slate. For more information on the players highlighted in this article, see our Fantasy Football Preview Dashboard.
Upside Running Backs on Upside Teams
Team Score: 27 points or more
Ceiling Projection: 20 FanDuel points or more
Overall this is a strong trend with a highly positive Plus/Minus and Consistency Rating.
Christian McCaffrey & Jonathan Stewart – Panthers
Christian McCaffrey exemplifies upside with an explosive profile: In addition to being a productive college runner (144.9 yards per game as a starter), he’s fast (4.48-second 40), agile (6.57-second three-cone), and a strong receiver (16.7 percent target share). He faces the 49ers, who last year were 32nd in the league in yards and touchdowns rushing. In our Models, McCaffrey has an ownership projection of just 5-8 percent, which is well below the trend’s average ownership rate. It’s likely that McCaffrey will be a discounted rookie in guaranteed prize pools.
This year FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across GPPs of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. After lineups lock, visit our DFS Contests Dashboard to see how McCaffrey lineups fared in terms of uniqueness.
Jonathan Stewart no longer has the shine of a first-round rookie but all signs indicate that he is still the goal-line back and will get touches. The Panthers have the slate’s fifth-highest implied total at 26.5 points and are 4.5-point favorites (per our Vegas Dashboard). With his red-zone work against the inept 49ers defense, Stewart has some upside at his projected ownership of just 2-4 percent.
For a breakdown of this backfield, check out our Panthers fantasy preview.
Demarco Murray & Devonta Freeman – Titans & Falcons
Le’Veon Bell also fits this trend and faces the Browns. He has the position’s highest ceiling projections and is a desirable play, but he’ll also have outrageous ownership. DeMarco Murray and Devonta Freeman are reasonable pivot plays to Bell. Both have top-10 ceiling projections and should have one-third of Bell’s ownership.
For more on Murray and Freeman, see our Week 1 running back breakdown.
High-Floor, High-Value Wide Receivers
Floor Projection: 6.0 DraftKings points or more
Plus/Minus Projection: +3.5 or more
With this trend we’re looking for receivers likely to offer value in all formats.
Terrelle Pryor – Redskins
Terrelle Pryor averaged a +1.51 Plus/Minus in 2016 with the Browns, who let Charlie Whitehurst throw passes. That happened. Now, with Kirk Cousins, who threw for 4,917 yards last year, Pryor won’t be inhibited by a dysfunctional offense. With a floor of 7.7 points and a projected Plus/Minus of +3.91, Pryor offers a lot of value. This trend is for DraftKings, but Pryor is even more of a value on FanDuel, where he leads the position with a 94 percent Bargain Rating.
Larry Fitzgerald – Cardinals
The 2016 receptions leader is a value again. Carson Palmer threw for nine fewer touchdowns and 438 fewer yards last year than he did the year before and Larry Fitzgerald still recorded 1,000 yards for the eighth time in his career. Fitzgerald has a reputation for slowing down late in the season; that’s fine. It’s Week 1. Last year in the first half of the season Fitzgerald averaged a +4.56 Plus/Minus. Facing a week secondary in Detroit (per our NFL Matchups Dashboard), Fitz has the highest ownership projection at the position. If you choose to stack him with Palmer, use our Lineup Builder, but be sure to differentiate your lineup with other players.
For more on Fitz and others, see our Week 1 wide receiver breakdown.
Stefon Diggs – Vikings
In slates that have Monday games, Stefon Diggs is a great value. He had a 23.1 percent target share in 2016 when healthy, and he’s facing a Saints defense that allowed the sixth-most DraftKings PPG (39.9) to wide receivers last year. He will make the most of his targets in Week 1.
Running Quarterbacks in High-Total Games
Projected Rushing Yards: 20 or more
Game Total: 45 or more
This trend (on DraftKings) is applicable to both sites and seeks quarterbacks with high floors because of their rushing production and high ceilings because of their shootout potential.
Cam Newton – Panthers
After underperforming expectations in 2016, Cam Newton may see depressed ownership early this season. Against the 49ers Newton should be able to run and pass at will. Stacking Newton with McCaffrey is an option with the rookie’s pass-catching ability.
Russell Wilson – Seahawks
Russell Wilson has a lot of upside playing against the Packers, who last year allowed the seventh-most DraftKings PPG (20.1) to opposing quarterbacks. The Seahawks-Packers game leads the slate with a 51.0-point over/under, and the Seahawks are 3.0-point underdogs. They’ll need Wilson to produce to stay competitive.
Marcus Mariota – Titans
The Raiders-Titans game is second on the slate with a 50.5-point total, and the Titans’ implied total of 26.5 points is fourth. While he’s at risk of losing rushing touchdowns to Murray, he can also be stacked with Murray, who’s one of the best receiving backs in the league. Another stacking option is wide receiver Rishard Matthews, who’s the highest-rated receiver in some of our Models.
DeShone Kizer – Browns
DeShone Kizer is a mystery. He starts his NFL career as the week’s biggest underdog (+8.5), which means that he could benefit from a pass-heavy game script and accumulate points in garbage time. Of course, he could also fail miserably and ruin lineups. With projected ownership of 2-4 percent, Kizer warrants some speculative GPP exposure as a contrarian leverage play on Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.
Good luck this week and be sure do research for yourself with our entire suite of Tools.
