A lot can change in the coming weeks, but with the release of Week 1 salaries on DraftKings we’re doing a preliminary data-driven breakdown using the FantasyLabs Tools and Models. Here are some players who have caught our attention. For more information on these (and other) players, check out our Fantasy Football Preview Dashboard.
Quarterbacks
If you want to pay up or pay down at the position, that’s fine. A couple of passers priced in the middle tier warrant attention.
Kirk Cousins (WAS vs. PHI), $6,400
He is fourth in the slate with an average of 21.02 DraftKings points per game (PPG) over the last year with a +4.06 Plus/Minus and a 75.0 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool). Since becoming the full-time starter in 2015, only Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Philip Rivers have more than his 9,083 yards passing — and Brees and Rivers aren’t in the slate because they play on Monday night. The QB4 on FanDuel, Cousins is priced as the QB10 on DraftKings at just $6,400. While the Eagles last year were second against the pass in Fo0tball Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), Cousins has had phenomenal career success against his divisional rivals, averaging 24.74 DraftKings PPG with a +9.06 Plus/Minus and 100 percent Consistency Rating over five starts. The Redskins are currently favored at home by two points and have the slate’s 10th-highest implied total.
Marcus Mariota (TEN vs. OAK), $6,800
He has a beautiful matchup against a Raiders team that ranked 25th in pass DVOA last season. Currently a one-point home underdog, the Titans are nevertheless implied with the slate’s 11th-highest point total, and home dog quarterbacks have historically benefited from deflated ownership. Last year Mariota had the seventh-most red zone carries of any quarterback, and Oakland tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed to the position and the eighth-most DraftKings PPG allowed to opposing passers. He’s priced as the QB6.
Running Back
Some backup running backs will probably end up being Week 1 chalk because of injuries or suspensions to starters. Be sure to keep an eye on our NFL News feed and NFL Matchups Dashboard to track preseason and Week 1 updates and depth chart situations.
Terrance West (BAL @ CIN), $4,700
He might not even be the best back on his team, but West is slated to see significant early-down volume with Kenneth Dixon out, and he also has capabilities as a pass-catcher with a 34/236/1 receiving stat line last year on 45 targets. The Bengals in 2016 were 20th in rush DVOA, and West is available at a discount on DraftKings as the RB28. He’s the RB19 on FanDuel.
Darren Sproles (PHI @ WAS), $3,900
He is $1,000 cheaper than the similar Jacquizz Rodgers, and Sproles is facing the team that last year allowed the fifth-most DraftKings PPG (27.9) to running backs last year. Even though Sproles is more valuable in the full point-per-reception scoring on DraftKings, he’s priced as the RB40 on FanDuel but the RB50 on DraftKings. The Eagles are road underdogs, which is theoretically a suboptimal situation for them, but it could result in a pass-heavy game script that benefits Sproles.
Wide Receiver
There are several desirable receivers at the top of the pay scale. Let’s focus on some guys priced outside of the top 10.
DeSean Jackson (TB @ MIA), $4,900
With a 16.9-yard average depth of target (aDOT, Pro Football Focus), D-Jax matches up well with quarterback Jameis Winston, who’s thrown the third- and sixth-most deep balls per game over the past two seasons (PlayerProfiler). Priced as the WR32 on DraftKings, Jackson is the WR13 on FanDuel. If Jackson gets open deep even once, that could be enough for him to hit value. The Dolphins last year were outside of the top 10 in pass defense against the deep ball (FO).
Terrelle Pryor (WAS vs. PHI), $6,100
He’s a better value on FanDuel, but he’s probably still underpriced on DraftKings as the WR13. Now in Washington, D.C., he’s the lead receiver on a team with 223 missing targets from last year’s roster. In 2016, his first full season of action as a receiver, Pryor averaged 13.90 DraftKings PPG with a +3.05 Plus/Minus and 56.3 percent Consistency Rating. He also averaged 2.76 yards of separation per target (Next Gen Stats), which is respectable for a 6’4″/233-lb. receiver running against cornerbacks. If you want to stack Cousins and Pryor, do it with our Lineup Builder.
Davante Adams (GB vs. SEA), $5,200
Last year, only six players in the league saw more red zone targets (20) than Adams and only his teammate Jordy Nelson had more receiving touchdowns (12). Adams led the team with 8.4 yards per target and was second with his 12.4-yard aDOT. The WR13 on FanDuel, he is priced as the WR25 on DraftKings. He could benefit from reduced ownership on account of the matchup and Green Bay’s less-than-elite implied total, but last year the Legion of Boom finished 31st in the league in pass DVOA against WR2s and allowed 36.4 DraftKings PPG to wide receiver as a whole. Of course it’s also possible that because of his quarterback and low price, Adams could be a chalky option in tournaments. This year FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, and Hunter Henry are absent from the slate, but there are still tight ends of interest to discuss.
Evan Engram (NYG @ DAL), $2,900
Pricing is relatively soft as a whole, but the conservative pricing on rookies is especially noteworthy. A first-round rookie with 87th percentile SPARQ-x athleticism (PlayerProfiler), Engram is slated to start right away and is priced as the TE19 on DraftKings. The matchup is less than ideal in that the Cowboys play slowly (30th in neutral pace last year) and the Giants don’t have a high implied total — but the matchup is great in that the Cowboys ranked 30th in pass DVOA against tight ends last season, allowing the second-most DraftKings PPG (17.3) to the position.
Zach Ertz (PHI @ WAS), $3,500
Ertz might see his 19.7 percent target share and 21.2 percent red zone target share decrease with the addition of Alshon Jeffery, but he’s still likely to be involved in the passing game given his versatility: 56 of his 101 total targets and three of his four touchdowns last year came in the slot (PFF). He was fourth at the position with 5.2 air yards per target. The TE5 on FanDuel, Ertz is priced as the TE10 on DraftKings. He’s let us down in good spots before, but the Redskins ranked 25th in pass DVOA against tight ends last season, allowing the third-most DraftKings PPG (16.9) to the position.
