The Models are the lifeblood for our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: things like salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our Models and take a look at some of the players with the highest ceilings, value ratings, and projected ownership for the NFL Week 1 slate.
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Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. CLE — $9,400 on FanDuel, $8,300 on DraftKings
Did you really expect anyone else? Jackson basically rewrote the fantasy record books last season thanks to his prodigious rushing ability. He led the league in yards per carry, and no QB in league history can match his total of 1206 rushing yards in a single season.
He kicks off his 2020 campaign with a matchup vs. the Browns, who had absolutely no answer for Jackson in their Week 16 contest. Jackson ran for 103 yards on the ground and added in 238 yards and three TDs through the air, resulting in 29.82 FanDuel points. The Ravens are tied for the highest implied team total on the slate at 27.75 points, and Jackson has historically averaged a dominant 27.99 FanDuel points with a comparable mark (per the Trends tool).
Top Value: Mitch Trubisky @ DET — $6,900 on FanDuel, $5,400 on DraftKings
Jackson owns the top Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel, but Mitch owns that designation on DraftKings. Trubisky’s days as a starter were believed to be over after the Bears traded for Nick Foles, but he was apparently impressive enough in camp to take the job.
Trubisky was obviously a disappointment in 2019, but he did start to run again towards the end of the year. Rushing ability is the easiest way for a mediocre QB to provide fantasy value, and his ability as a runner is a big reason why he scored at least 20.92 DraftKings points in four of his final six games.
He has an excellent matchup this week vs. the Lions, who ranked just 28th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA last season. Trubisky also torched them in their final matchup last season, scoring 27.92 DraftKings points.
Top Ownership: Russell Wilson @ ATL — $8,400 on FanDuel, $7,000 on DraftKings
Jackson is projected to be the highest-owned QB across the industry this week, but Wilson isn’t far behind. He’s taking on the Atlanta Falcons in what is projected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week. The total currently sits at 49.0 points, and the Seahawks’ implied team total of 25.75 ranks fourth on the slate.
The big question is whether or not the Seahawks will actually #LetRussEat in 2020. There has been some talk that he will be allowed to throw the ball more this season, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey vs. LV — $10,000 on FanDuel, $10,000 on DraftKings
You can expect to find McCaffrey in this spot basically every time he is on the main slate. Not only is he one of the best running backs in the league – he finished third in the league in rushing yards and tied for 10th in yards per carry – but he’s also one of the best receivers in football.
He should thrive as a receiver in particular in this contest vs. the Raiders. They ranked 30th in the league in pass defense DVOA vs. running backs last season. New starting QB Teddy Bridgewater also loves to check the ball down: He had the third-lowest average air yards on completed passes last season. That’s an awesome combination for McCaffrey to start the season.
Top Value: Josh Jacobs @ CAR — $8,200 on FanDuel, $6,800 on DraftKings
Jacobs leads the position in Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where he owns one of the top Bargain Ratings on the slate. He has a dream matchup vs. the Panthers, who were possibly the worst team in football against the run last year. They ranked dead-last in rush defense DVOA, and Jacobs owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.2.
The big question is whether or not Jacobs can get more involved as a receiver in 2020. He logged just 20 catches last season, and it’s going to hard for him to join the truly elite fantasy RBs without increasing that number. The Raiders have said all the right things about getting him more involved in 2020, but the presence of Jalen Richard still looms large.
Top Ownership: Miles Sanders @ WAS — $6,800 on FanDuel, $6,300 on DraftKings
Sanders is projected for the highest ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and it’s easy to see why. He’s taking on the Washington Professional Football Team, who were absolutely bludgeoned on the ground last season. Sanders ultimately leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +11.4 on FanDuel.
The Eagles are also favored by 5.5 points, which makes them one of the largest favorites on the slate. Historically, RBs in comparable Vegas situations have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.26 on FanDuel when projected for at least 10 fantasy points.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Davante Adams @ MIN — $8,000 on FanDuel, $7,300 on DraftKings
Michael Thomas is available on the Sunday main slate, but the top ceiling projection in our Models actually belongs to Adams. Adams was a target hog when healthy last season. He saw at least 26% of the Packers’ targets in nine of 12 weeks, and he garnered at least 30% of targets in six of them. The Packers brought in no additions to their receiving corps during the offseason, so expect Adams to be extremely busy again in 2020.
His matchup vs. the Vikings is also better than it seems on paper. They ranked fifth in pass defense DVOA last season, but they were just 21st in DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs.
Top Value: DeSean Jackson @ WAS — $5,700 on FanDuel, $4,900 on DraftKings
You could make a strong case that Adams is also the top value on the slate, but Jackson is a solid choice as well. He barely played last season, but he absolutely torched Washington in Week 1. He racked up eight catches for 154 yards and two TDs, resulting in 31.4 FanDuel points.
Additionally, the Eagles WR room is a bit thin right now. Jalen Reagor was a full participant at practice on Thursday, but it seems like Alshon Jeffrey will almost certainly miss Week 1. He avoided the PUP list – which means he should be back before Week 7 – but he’s still expected to miss at least a few weeks with a foot injury. That means Jackson should see a healthy target share against a team that ranked 27th in pass defense DVOA last year.
Top Ownership: Terry McLaurin vs. PHI — $6,500 on FanDuel, $5,700 on DraftKings
Adams is also in the running for this category, but McLaurin is right there with him in terms of projected ownership. We currently have him projected for 21-25% on DraftKings and 17-20% on FanDuel.
McLaurin was extremely productive as a rookie, and he was especially potent vs. the Eagles. He totaled 255 yards and two TDs over two matchups last season, resulting in an average of 21.25 FanDuel points per game. The Eagles did bring in Darius Slay to try to improve their pass defense in 2020, but Slay earned just the 84th-best coverage grade among 117 cornerbacks last season per Pro Football Focus.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: George Kittle vs. ARI — $8,000 on FanDuel, $7,200 on DraftKings
Kittle is definitely expensive on this slate, but he has immense upside vs. the Cardinals. They were easily the worst team in the league last year at defending the TE position – they ranked dead-last in DVOA vs. tight ends – and Kittle owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.00 on DraftKings.
The only real concern with Kittle is that the 49ers can occasionally win games without having to throw the ball very often. We saw that in the playoffs, and the 49ers are seven-point favorites in this contest.
Top Value: Hayden Hurst vs. SEA — $5,200 on FanDuel, $4,300 on DraftKings
Hurst is replacing Austin Hooper at TE for the Falcons, and he has a solid matchup in his debut. The Seahawks weren’t quite as bad as the Cardinals vs. TEs last season, but Hurst owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.40.
Hurst definitely has appeal with the Falcons, who typically like to get the TE involved in the passing game. Falcons’ TEs garnered 121 targets last season, which was the ninth-highest mark in the league.
Top Ownership: Chris Herndon @ BUF — $4,800 on FanDuel, $3,300 on DraftKings
Herndon is dirt-cheap in Week 1, which is expected to make him one of the most popular plays on the slate. He was a popular breakout candidate heading into the 2019 season but saw just two targets over the full season. He started the year with a four-game suspension and then battled injuries after rejoining the team.
That said, everything appears to be good to go for Herndon in 2020, so the hype-train is full steam ahead. Herndon impressed in limited playing time as a rookie, and there are plenty of targets up for grab with the Jets this season. They lack a true No. 1 option in the passing game, so Herndon could fill that void before the end of the year.
