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Each week, our Data Dive articles highlight notable players for the NFL DFS slate. For those interested in the prime time slate, here’s a weekly breakdown focused solely on these games.
We’re bringing back the Data Dive! Each week, I will use this format to discuss an NFL DFS slate that is incredibly popular but rarely has its own analysis: The Sunday Prime Time Slate. These slates are small — it has only three games in Week 1 — but the GPPs are massive. For example, DraftKings offers a 70,500-person tournament that costs $5 to enter and boasts a first-place payout of $50,000. Again, these GPPs are massive.
Let’s jump into this specific slate.
Quarterback
Projected Ceiling (pts): 35.5 (DK), Ben Roethlisberger
Ben goes up against a Redskins squad that added stud cornerback Josh Norman to a secondary that already included Bashaud Breeland. Further, Ben will be without his full arsenal of weapons: He will obviously be missing Martavis Bryant and it’s now looking like Markus Wheaton is in serious danger of missing Monday night’s game. Ben still has Antonio Brown, but this matchup on the road won’t be as easy as some numbers indicate. He will likely be highly-owned in this slate, despite the tough matchup. Brown is far-and-away the best wide receiver in this small slate, and many people will force the QB-WR correlation play into their lineups.
Opponent Plus/Minus: +2.0 (DK), Kirk Cousins
On the other side of this matchup, Cousins faces a Steelers defense that allowed two DK points over expectation to QBs last year (per our Plus/Minus metric). That is easily the best mark in this slate. Cousins was excellent last year: His 7.33 adjusted yards per pass attempt was higher than Big Ben’s, for reference. He’s a home underdog this week, which has historically been a positive situation:
He faces the same correlation issue as Big Ben: Jordan Reed is easily the best tight end (with Rob Gronkowski now out for the Patriots). Cousins will be in a ton of lineups because of Reed.
Running Back
Projected Plus/Minus : +6.0 (DK), James White
Running back is loaded in the prime time slate: Our options include White, David Johnson, Todd Gurley, Carlos Hyde, and DeAngelo Williams. Heck, even White’s teammate LeGarrette Blount is a great play.
That makes White incredibly intriguing for this small slate. He’s cheap — $3,600 on DraftKings — which is the reason for his slate-high +6.0 Projected Plus/Minus. That would normally mean high ownership levels — and it likely will for the larger slates. However, DFS players often don’t like leaving salary on the table in small slates. Very few users will elect to leave salary on the table and roster White instead of a higher-priced stud. And then even fewer of those users will choose to roster White and Blount, who has the second-highest RB Projected Plus/Minus on DK. That’s an interesting game-theory play.
Rush Success Rate (%): 56, David Johnson
Both Johnson and Gurley will be very popular. Gurley in particular has the best matchup, as the 49ers allowed 3.5 DK points over expectations to RBs last year. The Rams are 2.5-point favorites and their entire offense revolves around the second-year RB. However, it was actually Johnson who was the superior RB last year in terms of rushing success rate. Further, Johnson posted a 31.8 percent TD rate in the red zone, the highest rate in this slate among RBs who averaged at least one RZ trip per game.
Wide Receiver
Receiving TD Market Share (%): 45.5, Tavon Austin
Yes, Tavon Austin posted a higher TD market share last year than any WR in this slate, including Antonio. That mark actually led the entire NFL, not just this slate. Unfortunately, it was in a small sample: The Rams scored an NFL-low 11 receiving touchdowns. Austin could potentially be underowned in his slate because of the other options. He currently owns the seventh-highest DK ceiling among WRs in the slate. That makes his douple-dip potential as a return man even more enticing.
Red-Zone Touchdown Rate (%): 40.9, Larry Fitzgerald
I get it: The 33-year-old veteran isn’t as sexy as the fast John Brown or big-play Michael Floyd. But he’s still the No. 1 receiver in the Cardinals offense: In terms of market share, he owned the highest percentage of receiving targets, touchdowns, and yards — both in the red zone and between the 20s. He’ll likely be popular in this slate even with Antonio and Julian Edelman as options, but perhaps you can mitigate his popularity via his teammates. The real game theory play is to stack all three of them, if you can stomach the volatility.
Tight End
Projected Floor (pts): 10.9 (DK), Jordan Reed
Reed is obviously the class of this slate, especially now that Gronk has been ruled out for the Patriots. He’s clearly the best TE in prime time: He posted a 10.9 yards-per-reception mark and 7.4 yards-per-target mark last year on a ton of volume. He owned 20.5 percent of Washington’s receiving targets and 36.7 percent of the receiving touchdowns. He will be massively owned and for good reason.
Bales Model Rating (%): 79.05 (DK), Martellus Bennett
It is actually Bennett who owns the highest rating in the DK Bales Player Model, not Reed. The reason, of course, is his salary: He’s only $3,400 and is projected to be a large part of the New England offense without Gronk. His 12.6-point projection gives him a +6.5 Projected Plus/Minus because of his low salary. We have him projected at 31 to 40 percent ownership in the main slate. That number is a little harder to peg down in the prime time slate, but he’s likely to be chalky. The play of the slate — my favorite game theory play, in fact — is to use both Reed and Bennett, with one in the flex.
Good luck this week in your prime time contests!
