The Prime Time Slate Breakdown offers data-driven analysis each week. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL home page.
The NFL DFS prime time slates have massive guaranteed prize pools to kick off the season. DraftKings is offering the $300k Sunday Night Special with a $5 entry fee and top prize of $25,000, while FanDuel counters with the $250k NFL Primetime Showdown with a $4 entry fee and top prize of $50,000. As always, monitor our NFL news feed for player and weather updates throughout the week.
Quarterbacks
“When The Saints. . .”
The most-expensive quarterback on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Drew Brees currently has the highest projected points for both sites in our Models. That said, his matchup is not easy. He’s on the road against the Vikings, who last year allowed the fifth-fewest DraftKings (16.2) and sixth-fewest FanDuel (15.7) points per game (PPG) to opposing passers. The Vikings were tied for the eighth-fewest passing touchdowns allowed (21) and had the 12th-most interceptions (14). Minnesota can get after the quarterback — they were fifth in the NFL last season with 41 sacks — but they are facing a New Orleans offensive line that in 2016 was fifth with a 4.5 percent adjusted sack rate (Football Outsiders). The Saints currently rank 4/6 in the slate with an implied total of 22.3 points playing as 3.5-point underdogs (per our Vegas Dashboard). Per our Trends tool, in similar situations on the road as an underdog, Brees has previously produced 19.73 DraftKings PPG with a -0.07 Plus/Minus and 50.0 percent Consistency Rating; he has scored less than 20 points in seven of 14 games.
Our new Correlations page suggests that Brees can be stacked with teammates of varying positions. On a three-game slate, finding contrarian stacks will be one key to success. This year FantasyLabs users can review ownership trends across guaranteed prize pools of various buy-in levels with our DFS Ownership Dashboard, which is reason enough to subscribe to FantasyLabs. After lineups lock, visit our DFS Contests Dashboard and use our Stack Seeker tool to identify the top contrarian Saints stack of the week.
“Go Marching In. . .”
Sam Bradford and the Vikings currently have the highest implied total (25.8 points) on the slate. Last season, the Saints allowed the sixth-most DraftKings (20.5) and FanDuel PPG (18.8) to opposing passers. Bradford’s Projected Plus/Minus is tops among QBs, and he’s the second-cheapest option at the position. Per our Vikings Fantasy Preview, Bradford played much better once his old friend Pat Shurmur took over as offensive coordinator in Minnesota, completing 74.5 percent of his passes and averaging 270.6 yards per game in nine games.
Running Backs
Mile High Salute
Currently the top-rated DraftKings RB in the Bales Model — not just the Prime Time slate, but in the entire 16-game week — C.J. Anderson has a top-three ceiling projection and 99 percent Bargain Rating. He’s playing a fantasy-friendly Chargers defense that in 2016 allowed opposing rushers to accumulate the eighth-most fantasy PPG (27.1 DraftKings, 23.6 FanDuel). Anderson is at home, and the Broncos are currently third in the slate with an implied total of 23.3 points as 3.5-point favorites. Since 2014, Anderson has averaged 16.49 DraftKings and 14.22 FanDuel PPG with +5.23 and +4.34 Plus/Minus values when playing at home with a similar team total.
Let’s Eat
Ezekiel Elliott‘s suspension status in 2017 is still up in the air, but he will suit up in Week 1 against a division rival the Cowboys failed to beat in 2016. With no #TeamJamEmIn in this slate, Zeke is by far the most-expensive running back at a position as a home favorite where volume is everything; he averaged 21 and 24 touches against the Giants last year. The Cowboys’ offensive line looks less dominant this year with the loss of Ronald Leary and Doug Free, and Zeke wasn’t especially efficient last season anyway. Per our Cowboys Fantasy Preview, he was only seventh with 0.46 fantasy points per snap and 5.3 yards per carry (YPC) against a base front, 11th with 3.5 YPC against a stacked front, 15th with a +21.0 Production Premium, 20th with 1.3 yards after contact per touch, 22nd with a 5.3 percent breakaway run rate, and 23rd with 0.90 fantasy points per opportunity. As good as Zeke is, the Giants allowed the sixth-fewest FanDuel PPG and were second in points allowed and rush DVOA; his price is better suited for guaranteed prize pools.
Wide Receivers
Stack the Vikings
The Vikings-Saints game leads the slate with a 48.0-point over/under, and the Saints’ secondary is exploitable (per our NFL Matchups Dashboard). Last year the Saints allowed the sixth-most fantasy PPG (39.9 DraftKings, 31.7 FanDuel) to opposing wide receivers. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are tied for the slate lead with six DraftKings Pro Trends. Last year, Diggs ran 62.7 percent of his snaps in the slot; Thielen, just 29.3. Their roles have switched since training camp, so we can expect Diggs to see more downfield targets after seeing just 1.08 per game in 2016, and Thielen’s target share of 15.7 percent (70th) should increase in Diggs’ former role (23.1). Regardless, both seem underpriced matched up against rookie Marshon Lattimore and exploitable slot cornerback Sterling Moore.
Feel Free to Go Deep
Game stacks are probably undervalued, so rolling back your Vikings stacks with a high-upside correlation like Ted Ginn (4.38-second 40) makes sense. He currently has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both sites and will have the pleasure of matching up with Trae Waynes — the slate’s sixth-best advantage (Pro Football Focus) — while Michael Thomas will battle with shutdown cornerback Xavier Rhodes. Ginn should see more targets with Willie Snead suspended, and last year he was 31st among wide receivers with a 1.74 YPRR. On this short slate, there’s GPP-winning upside here, and perhaps at fairly low ownership.
Tight Ends
I’ll Take ‘Em All
Speaking of game stacks, consider adding Kyle Rudolph, as he could easily be the strongest bet for a receiving touchdown in this slate. Last year, he trailed only Jordy Nelson with his 24 red zone targets, and for some reason he owns a 96 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel in Week 1. His 22.6 percent target share last year is the highest mark among all tight ends on this Prime Time slate and is second-highest behind Greg Olsen‘s (23.4) mark in the entire 16-game week. He should continue to see volume, with the added bonus of massive touchdown equity; sign me up for Rudolph in all formats.
For more information on the players highlighted in this article, see our Week 1 Positional Breakdowns and Fantasy Football Team Preview Dashboard.
