From now till Thursday, September 1 — the day of the final preseason games — FantasyLabs will be releasing our 2016 team previews: 32 previews in 32 days. Are you ready for some football?
Washington Redskins NFL Preview
Even the most devout fans of Washington’s professional football team couldn’t have anticipated the type of season that 2015 would be. After all, owner Dan Snyder had spent the last few years (metaphorically) running on a treadmill, remaining complacent and employing the exact methodology that had resulted in a total of seven victories over the previous two years. There was no reason for Washington to finish with nine wins and a division title last season, especially since the team’s Pythagorean total in 2014 was only 4.7.
With a new starting quarterback in place, Washington transformed from laughing stock of the NFC East to surprise playoff team. This transformation was especially surprising because after starting 3-5 and generally disappointing on offense the team went 6-2 in the second half and became something of a juggernaut, averaging 32.75 points per game while winning the final four contests of the season.
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins
This season, Cousins will be the first quarterback to play under the franchise tag since 2012. His being franchised suggests that he is a top quarterback in the league and did well last year, but he was rather ho-hum for the first seven weeks of the season.
A +4.11 Plus/Minus at DraftKings isn’t anything to mock, but take into consideration that Cousins’ salary never exceeded $5,500 in that time, so his expectations were fairly low in the first place — and he met those expectations only 42.9 percent of the time. His team was 3-4 and Cousins to that point had averaged 6.48 yards per attempt, tossing nine touchdowns to eight interceptions. After seven games, Cousins was pacing to finish the season tied with Matt Ryan for 26th overall on a points-per-game basis.
Then Washington returned from the bye week.
If only narratives existed, you would think that Cousins simply became comfortable in the offense, which in turn led to better play. But ‘not being so nervous’ doesn’t explain how he increased his yards/attempt by 2.35 over those final nine games or why he failed to throw multiple interceptions in any outing over that span despite doing so on four separate occasions during the first seven games.
For starters, Washington was dealt a much easier schedule in the latter half of the season. In three of the final nine games, Cousins faced these teams:
— The Saints, who not only allowed the highest Opponent Plus/Minus to quarterbacks in 2015 but were also the worst defense that Football Outsiders had ever measured, according to DVOA.
— The Bears, whose +4.3 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to quarterbacks, although not as high as that of the Saints, is also atrocious.
— The Giants, who allowed the third-most raw fantasy points to quarterbacks per game.
Additionally, in back-to-back games against the Eagles and Bills, Cousins had outlier type of performances, specifically completing eight of 14 passes for 83 yards and six touchdowns in the red zone — and adding a rushing score. Those were the only contests all season in which he recorded over 40 yards passing inside the 20-yard line. Unsurprisingly, those were his two highest-scoring games at DraftKings.
The return of wide receiver DeSean Jackson also helped matters.
Receivers
DeSean Jackson
Only 13 snaps and one target into Jackson’s 2015-16 campaign, Washington’s offense lost its No. 1 wideout for what would amount to six full games — seven if we include his truncated Week 1 appearance. Returning after the bye, D-Jax worked his way back into Washington’s game plan, averaging 5.5 targets in his first two full games of the season, and then in Week 10, he really began making his presence felt. From that point forward, Jackson averaged 12.68 yards per target and 16.31 DraftKings points per game. Nine receivers averaged at least 17 yards per reception in 2015, but Jackson (61.2 percent) and Sammy Watkins (62.5 percent) were the only two among that group to finish with a catch-rate greater than 56 percent.
The lighter schedule almost certainly benefitted Cousins in the second half, but so too did the return of Jackson. Robert Griffin averaged a high 11.4 adjusted yards per attempt on 43 targets thrown Jackson’s way. Cousins has averaged 11.5 AY/A when targeting Jackson. He simply makes quarterbacks (and probably offenses) better, and that trend should continue into 2016 now that he and Cousins finally have a full season to display their chemistry on the field.
Pierre Garcon
Much like tight end Jordan Reed, Garcon received fewer targets once Jackson returned — which is to be expected (and was probably optimal). Unexpected was his relative consistency playing alongside Jackson and Reed. In Washington’s first seven games, Garcon averaged 6.14 yards per target and 12.86 DraftKings points. In the next eight games — when all three players were together (Jackson rested against the Cowboys in Week 17) — Garcon averaged 7.56 yards per target and 10.23 DraftKings points, a minor decrease, all things considered.
After recording only one drop in 2015 and finishing second on the team in red-zone targets, the No. 2 wide receiver job in Washington is still Garcon’s to lose. Of course, he might lose it.
Jamison Crowder
Before penciling in a rookie or preseason standout as Crowder’s replacement in three-receiver sets, we should remember that he accumulated the third-most red zone targets for Washington after Jackson’s return. Crowder also recorded the second-highest catch rate among qualifying wide receivers last year, being edged out by Doug Baldwin by just 0.1 percent. He’ll be vastly underrated to start the year.
Josh Doctson
Then there’s the first-round rookie wide receiver, who averaged almost 102 yards and 1.1 touchdowns per game over his final 23 contests at Texas Christian University. At 6’2” and 202 pounds and blessed with exceptional explosion and agility (and adequate straight-line speed) for his size, Doctson has the makeup of a lead receiver and was targeted 35.6 percent of the time in 2015 — but he almost certainly won’t be treated as a lead receiver in his rookie campaign. Per John Keim of ESPN, it’s Crowder who’s likely to begin the season as the No. 3 wide receiver, as the team plans to take its time to “groom” Doctson.
If Doctson earns a larger role in the offense down the stretch, his production will likely come at the expense of Garcon, but Washington isn’t likely to lessen Garcon’s workload immediately. Garcon is still the clear No. 2 wide receiver on the team — for now.
Tight Ends
Jordan Reed
Reed was one of the few receivers for Washington who remained amazingly productive and reliable whether Jackson was on the field or not. Battling a sprained MCL and concussion early in the year, Reed played in five of seven games prior to Washington’s Week 8 bye and averaged a +10.18 Plus/Minus at DraftKings without Jackson in those starts.
Reed’s average Plus/Minus at DraftKings fell to +6.94 over Washington’s final nine games, but his salary had drastically changed over that time. Before Week 8, the most Reed cost was $4,500. During the final nine games of the season, that was the least he ever cost. Nevertheless, he still had a 66.7 percent Consistency during that stretch with D-Jax on the field, proving that the two of them can have success when starting together.
Reed, as expected, did see fewer targets after Jackson returned (dropping from nine targets per game without Jackson to seven targets per game with him). But he still led the team with 14 total red zone targets over the final nine games, outpacing Garcon and Crowder by six and eight targets. In 2016, the team will almost certainly plan for Reed to dominate the middle of the field and the red zone while Jackson dominates the outside.
Niles Paul
This upcoming season the team will have back its No. 2 tight end, who is returning from a dislocated and fractured ankle that ended his 2015 season before it even began. Although it may initially seem as if Paul isn’t necessary to Washington’s offense, he very much is, as Reed has yet to piece together a full 16-game season since being drafted in 2013. Paul averaged 5.6 targets and 8.71 yards per target in the five games he played without Reed in 2014. Their red-zone targets should be monitored closely to start the year since Paul, at the least, could steal a couple of targets from Reed, thereby limiting Reed’s potential.
Running Backs
Matt Jones
To say that Washington has confidence in Jones is an understatement. Not only did the team allow former lead back Alfred Morris to walk, but it also waited until the seventh round to draft someone to compete with Jones for the starting job. That’s why he’s expected to average 15-20 carries per game.
Of course, as a rookie Jones was inefficient for the better part of 2015. He received 26 red-zone carries, six of which were inside the five-yard line. He did score twice from inside the five, but his other 24 touches resulted in an average of 1.91 yards per attempt. Additionally, 16.7 percent of Jones’ rushing attempts also resulted in negative yardage, the second-highest percentage among backs who received at least 100 carries. Fortunately, opportunity is everything for running backs. Quantity tends to trump quality at the position, and that was certainly the case for Jones. He logged at least 30 snaps in four games last season, averaging 14.17 DraftKings points in those contests. He averaged 7.52 DraftKings points in all other games.
Chris Thompson
Thompson is strictly a third-down back, but quantity proved to be important for him, too. Thompson averaged 10.28 DraftKings points and a +4.73 Plus/Minus in the six games in which he logged at least 20 snaps. He averaged 4.41 DraftKings points and a -0.53 Plus/Minus in all remaining contests. Assuming that Jones costs substantially more than Thompson to start the season, there will undoubtedly be a time when the latter will provide equal value.
Keith Marshall
The high-point of Marshall’s 2016 was running a 4.31-second 40-yard dash at the NFL combine and getting drafted in the seventh round by Washington despite having an injury-impacted and frustratingly lackluster college career at Georgia.
The low point was being placed on the Injured Reserve for an elbow injury (that was reportedly not that serious) after he fell behind a fellow rookie on the depth chart.
Maybe we’ll see Marshall next season. Maybe we won’t.
Rob Kelley
The bad news is that Kelley is an old undrafted rookie who was a subpar runner in college and is now literally one of the least athletic running backs in the NFL. Last year, in his redshirt senior campaign, he was the No. 3 back on a 3-9 team. He rushed for one touchdown and averaged 3.6 yards/carry.
The good news is that he’s 5’11” and 226 lbs. and the direct backup to a lead runner who isn’t especially good and right now isn’t healthy. Additionally, he’s actually a strong receiver. As a sophomore in college, he had 46 receptions for 340 yards and four touchdowns.
If he actually sees playing time in the regular season, his size and receiving ability could give him some value — amazingly enough. Think 2015 Antonio Andrews without the history of college production . . . I just ruined it, didn’t I?
Two-Minute Warning
Even if you think that Jackson’s presence was the reason for Cousins’ turnaround (and it definitely was a factor), you shouldn’t overlook the soft schedule that Washington had in the second half of the season. As a result, Washington’s difficult schedule this season is probably more important than most people realize. This is one of only two teams forced to play three straight road games. In two other games the team has the difficult task of facing the Cardinals and Panthers. Assuming that the Giants and Cowboys bounce back at least a little, Washington’s path to a second consecutive division title will be much tougher in 2016. The team’s 7.5 Season Win Total seems about right.
Fortunately, there should be enough fruitful situations to stack Washington before the nightmarish schedule begins in Week 8. Six of the first seven defenses Cousins faces to start the season allowed an Opponent Plus/Minus of at least +2.5 to quarterbacks in 2015. Furthermore, the Giants, Eagles, and Steelers all allowed over 66 opponent plays per game. Assuming that Jackson and Reed remain the focal point of the passing attack and Jones receives the carries that seem likely to go to him, the Washington offense should be ready to pick up where it left off when it takes the field for Monday Night Football in Week 1.
