If you compiled 100 random DFS strategy articles and control-F searched for “process” or “process over results,” I would imagine you would get quite a number of hits. It’s a cliché phrase at this point, but I still don’t want to stop thinking about said process every week.
I think this is an interesting thing because of our site here at Fantasy Labs is built obviously around data, projections, trends, and models. What I’m saying is: especially at a site like this, it’s easy to skip the process because the models are so easy to access and use. However, I believe that is a big mistake and I want to share an idea I discovered while compiling the data for this very article – one that is admittedly very built around the numbers and something I usually drop every week for your perusing without thousands of words of analysis.
As you’ll see in the chart below, the Miami Dolphins were easily the number-one team on DraftKings this week. That’s not really that surprising – before last week, they had really struggled this year and despite the great game from Lamar Miller and company, the sites aren’t going to adjust them way up in pricing quite yet. However, the data is showing that is really heavily accentuated on DraftKings more than FanDuel. But why is that? I don’t think it’s because the DraftKings algorithm is slower or any reason like that. Instead, I think it’s because of the fundamental difference in their pricing floor and salary cap ceiling.
Miller last week to this week on DraftKings saw a price increase of $300 from $4300 to $4600, and similarly saw a price increase on FanDuel of $300 from $6400 to $6700. So what gives?
On FanDuel, the pricing floor of players makes it so the difference between the top players at a position and the “punt plays” or minimum-priced players is much smaller than on DraftKings. For example, look at the difference between now-high-priced Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller on each site.
DraftKings: Freeman ($7900), Miller ($4600) – difference of $3300
FanDuel: Freeman ($8700), Miller ($6700) – difference of $2000
Now, I don’t think that either site is incorrect in their pricing and that this is just a weird example of one of them messing up their algorithm. Instead, the nature of FanDuel’s salary cap makes it so the players are naturally more close together than they are on DraftKings. I believe this has a huge impact on how we should approach the sites and the strategy of lineup building.
On FanDuel, I think it makes a lot less sense to go the “Studs and Duds” route, as going down to a minimum-salaried player doesn’t give that much savings. On DraftKings, going from Larry Fitzgerald to Michael Floyd this weekend saves you $4200! On FanDuel, that’s just not possible – that number is almost the minimum price of a player.
This isn’t to say that you shouldn’t pay up for studs on FanDuel – in fact, I think it makes a lot of sense to (I know this sounds contradictory, but follow me). The reason you should perhaps build more balanced lineups on FanDuel than DraftKings isn’t because FanDuel’s salary cap makes it so they aren’t as valuable – rather, the tight pricing makes it the opposite – but rather the difference between the mid and low-tiered guys is also just as small as the difference between the high and mid.
Or, let me put it in more clear terms – on FanDuel, I don’t think it makes a lot of sense to use minimum-salaried guys because you aren’t really getting that much savings. This would naturally make you want to pay up for the high-priced guys, but you also can’t do so because of their tight salary cap. The result of those two things puts you right at a balanced lineup – not going to min guys will naturally put you on the mid-tier plays instead.
Well, this went a lot longer than I expected but I think this is the important thing to do in DFS. Crunch numbers. Compile data. Build models. Write out your thoughts. Even if it’s not “useful” or doesn’t lead to discovering new stats or anything, just the acts of doing those things can sometimes lead you to really useful nuggets of information. Anyway, good luck in Week 7.
