NFL

NFL Team DFS Rankings: Week 3

Ever since we created Bargain Rating – one of our unique metrics here at Fantasy Labs – the idea of searching out player price like you’re playing the stock market has really stuck with me. Figuring out which players are in a good matchup is fairly easy nowadays with easily accessible data and DFS sites that give moving Vegas lines at any point and a variety of who-to-play articles. That’s 101 stuff.

However, if we want to take it to the next level, we need to know not only what players are the best plays, but also where they are the best plays. Our Bargain Rating is perfect for this – it just shows the difference between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing and sorts them into historical percentiles. As such, we can now see matchups and value.

But let’s take it one step further. What if we look at how the two sites value each team playing during that specific week? And then what if we measured that against their matchup or projected points on the week? Would we perhaps get some odd form of Team Value Rankings?

I think so, but this is really just my first attempt at it. Let me explain what I did quickly, although it’s very simple. I merely averaged the Bargain Rating on each site for each team’s top-five projected players – their QB plus next four projected players, no matter the position – and then multiplied that average by their Vegas implied points. It’s simple and rough, but I actually think it’s fairly illuminating.

Take a look. (Here’s a link to a sortable doc if you want.)

Team Avg DK Bargain Rating Avg FD Bargain Rating Implied Points DK Team Rating FD Team Rating DK Team Rating Rank FD Team Rating Rank
Chiefs 24.2 82.8 20.5 496.1 1697.4 29 1
Patriots 48.2 53.8 30.5 1470.1 1640.9 5 2
Packers 43.2 59 27.5 1188 1622.5 15 3
Giants 39.6 68 23.8 942.48 1618.4 21 4
Cardinals 59.2 63.8 25.3 1497.76 1614.14 4 5
Vikings 36 67.6 23.8 856.8 1608.88 22 6
Eagles 37.4 66.8 22.5 841.5 1503 24 7
Seahawks 53.8 49.2 29.8 1603.24 1466.16 3 8
Saints 32 70 20.8 665.6 1456 28 9
Colts 43.2 59.6 24.3 1049.76 1448.28 18 10
Steelers 50.6 56.8 24 1214.4 1363.2 13 11
Bills 38.6 64.8 20.8 802.88 1347.84 26 12
Bears 15.4 85.4 15.3 235.62 1306.62 30 13
Bengals 39.4 61.8 20.8 819.52 1285.44 25 14
Falcons 49.2 53.8 23 1131.6 1237.4 17 15
Dolphins 51.2 53 23.3 1192.96 1234.9 14 16
Panthers 54.8 50.4 24.3 1331.64 1224.72 10 17
Bucs 41 67 17 697 1139 27 18
Redskins 52.4 56.6 19.8 1037.52 1120.68 19 19
Raiders 44.6 56.8 19 847.4 1079.2 23 20
Texans 58.6 45.2 23.5 1377.1 1062.2 9 21
Cowboys 63.4 46.4 22 1394.8 1020.8 7 22
Chargers 58 46 21.3 1235.4 979.8 12 23
Ravens 61.2 40.6 23.8 1456.56 966.28 6 24
Browns 61.4 40.8 22.5 1381.5 918 8 25
Titans 62.4 41.2 20.8 1297.92 856.96 11 26
Jets 68.8 34 25 1720 850 1 27
Jaguars 58.6 44 17 996.2 748 20 28
49ers 62.4 39.2 18.8 1173.12 736.96 16 29
Rams 77.8 25.4 22 1711.6 558.8 2 30

 

As you can see, Chiefs players are a much better value on FanDuel than DraftKings this week, and even though they aren’t projected to score as much as some teams (implied points of 20.5), the fact that they have such a high Bargain Rating on FanDuel makes them our number-one ranked team on FD. The number two team has the opposite story – the Patriots are equally valuable on either site, but their high implied points (30.5) puts them at #2 for FD and #5 for DK. It’s intended to be a mix of value and matchup, and I think just seeing the top two teams shows that it does that fairly accurately.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Rams are an incredible value on DraftKings but not FanDuel. As such, they’re the second-ranked team on DK, despite another low implied point number: 22.0. The Jets are the #1 team on DK in Week 3 and they’re a nice balance – they’re right in the middle of being valuable on DK and having an in-the-middle implied point total.

The Seahawks and Cardinals are the two other teams, along with the Patriots, that are top-10 teams on both sites. This is where using both Bargain Rating averages and implied points together help balance it – they should be up at the top because they’re projected to score a bunch of points in Week 3, but it doesn’t mean we should just blindly take the Seahawks on both sites. I mean maybe you should because they’re playing Jimmy Clausen in Seattle, but it is important to note that you’re getting a “lesser deal” on FanDuel than you are on DraftKings.

A couple notes – I’m going to put these out on Tuesday or Wednesday each week  (really, as soon as I get Vegas lines, although the Broncos-Lions game hasn’t been released yet) and that can make things difficult with players being day-to-day or a game-time decision. As such, I just go with the information I have at the time. Eddie Lacy could play in Week 3, but as of now, the data is reflective of James Starks getting the starting nod for the Packers. I’ll update once the injury pictures become a little clearer, although just a quick glance at our Player Ratings page and you can see how the injury swap would affect the rankings.

I hope you find this data interesting and relevant. It’s something I’ll probably shape and make better as the season progresses, so please let me know your thoughts and questions.

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No related posts.

Ever since we created Bargain Rating – one of our unique metrics here at Fantasy Labs – the idea of searching out player price like you’re playing the stock market has really stuck with me. Figuring out which players are in a good matchup is fairly easy nowadays with easily accessible data and DFS sites that give moving Vegas lines at any point and a variety of who-to-play articles. That’s 101 stuff.

However, if we want to take it to the next level, we need to know not only what players are the best plays, but also where they are the best plays. Our Bargain Rating is perfect for this – it just shows the difference between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing and sorts them into historical percentiles. As such, we can now see matchups and value.

But let’s take it one step further. What if we look at how the two sites value each team playing during that specific week? And then what if we measured that against their matchup or projected points on the week? Would we perhaps get some odd form of Team Value Rankings?

I think so, but this is really just my first attempt at it. Let me explain what I did quickly, although it’s very simple. I merely averaged the Bargain Rating on each site for each team’s top-five projected players – their QB plus next four projected players, no matter the position – and then multiplied that average by their Vegas implied points. It’s simple and rough, but I actually think it’s fairly illuminating.

Take a look. (Here’s a link to a sortable doc if you want.)

Team Avg DK Bargain Rating Avg FD Bargain Rating Implied Points DK Team Rating FD Team Rating DK Team Rating Rank FD Team Rating Rank
Chiefs 24.2 82.8 20.5 496.1 1697.4 29 1
Patriots 48.2 53.8 30.5 1470.1 1640.9 5 2
Packers 43.2 59 27.5 1188 1622.5 15 3
Giants 39.6 68 23.8 942.48 1618.4 21 4
Cardinals 59.2 63.8 25.3 1497.76 1614.14 4 5
Vikings 36 67.6 23.8 856.8 1608.88 22 6
Eagles 37.4 66.8 22.5 841.5 1503 24 7
Seahawks 53.8 49.2 29.8 1603.24 1466.16 3 8
Saints 32 70 20.8 665.6 1456 28 9
Colts 43.2 59.6 24.3 1049.76 1448.28 18 10
Steelers 50.6 56.8 24 1214.4 1363.2 13 11
Bills 38.6 64.8 20.8 802.88 1347.84 26 12
Bears 15.4 85.4 15.3 235.62 1306.62 30 13
Bengals 39.4 61.8 20.8 819.52 1285.44 25 14
Falcons 49.2 53.8 23 1131.6 1237.4 17 15
Dolphins 51.2 53 23.3 1192.96 1234.9 14 16
Panthers 54.8 50.4 24.3 1331.64 1224.72 10 17
Bucs 41 67 17 697 1139 27 18
Redskins 52.4 56.6 19.8 1037.52 1120.68 19 19
Raiders 44.6 56.8 19 847.4 1079.2 23 20
Texans 58.6 45.2 23.5 1377.1 1062.2 9 21
Cowboys 63.4 46.4 22 1394.8 1020.8 7 22
Chargers 58 46 21.3 1235.4 979.8 12 23
Ravens 61.2 40.6 23.8 1456.56 966.28 6 24
Browns 61.4 40.8 22.5 1381.5 918 8 25
Titans 62.4 41.2 20.8 1297.92 856.96 11 26
Jets 68.8 34 25 1720 850 1 27
Jaguars 58.6 44 17 996.2 748 20 28
49ers 62.4 39.2 18.8 1173.12 736.96 16 29
Rams 77.8 25.4 22 1711.6 558.8 2 30

 

As you can see, Chiefs players are a much better value on FanDuel than DraftKings this week, and even though they aren’t projected to score as much as some teams (implied points of 20.5), the fact that they have such a high Bargain Rating on FanDuel makes them our number-one ranked team on FD. The number two team has the opposite story – the Patriots are equally valuable on either site, but their high implied points (30.5) puts them at #2 for FD and #5 for DK. It’s intended to be a mix of value and matchup, and I think just seeing the top two teams shows that it does that fairly accurately.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Rams are an incredible value on DraftKings but not FanDuel. As such, they’re the second-ranked team on DK, despite another low implied point number: 22.0. The Jets are the #1 team on DK in Week 3 and they’re a nice balance – they’re right in the middle of being valuable on DK and having an in-the-middle implied point total.

The Seahawks and Cardinals are the two other teams, along with the Patriots, that are top-10 teams on both sites. This is where using both Bargain Rating averages and implied points together help balance it – they should be up at the top because they’re projected to score a bunch of points in Week 3, but it doesn’t mean we should just blindly take the Seahawks on both sites. I mean maybe you should because they’re playing Jimmy Clausen in Seattle, but it is important to note that you’re getting a “lesser deal” on FanDuel than you are on DraftKings.

A couple notes – I’m going to put these out on Tuesday or Wednesday each week  (really, as soon as I get Vegas lines, although the Broncos-Lions game hasn’t been released yet) and that can make things difficult with players being day-to-day or a game-time decision. As such, I just go with the information I have at the time. Eddie Lacy could play in Week 3, but as of now, the data is reflective of James Starks getting the starting nod for the Packers. I’ll update once the injury pictures become a little clearer, although just a quick glance at our Player Ratings page and you can see how the injury swap would affect the rankings.

I hope you find this data interesting and relevant. It’s something I’ll probably shape and make better as the season progresses, so please let me know your thoughts and questions.

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No related posts.