We’re in the final stretch of the NFL season. Using our FantasyLabs Stacking tool we will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. The following stacks were made using the Levitan Player Model.
QB-WR (DK): Dak Prescott – Dez Bryant
Prescott is currently projected to be the highest-owned QB for the weekend. The Packers currently give up an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.1, the highest mark on the slate by far. Prescott leads all QBs with seven Pro Trends.
Bryant is in an intriguing spot against the porous Green Bay secondary. The Packers allow a slate-high +2.7 Opponent Plus/Minus to WRs. While Bryant (per our Matchups tool) is expected to run many of his routes against cornerback LaDarius Gunter, it’s likely that Bryant will move around the formation and play at least a few snaps against CB Damarious Randall, who has a Pro Football Focus coverage grade of just 39.1. Just a few snaps against Randall could be enough for Dez to have a big game.
QB-TE (FD): Alex Smith – Travis Kelce
Throughout the entire season, Smith has surpassed 40 passing attempts just twice. That’s a red flag, but Smith has scored 25 and 23 fantasy points in his last two games. He benefits from having two two play-making WRs in Tyreek Hill and Jeremy Maclin, who can inflate his stats with big plays, and his Projected Plus/Minus of +3.69 is second among QBs.
Kelce is the slate’s alpha TE. He leads the pack in median projected score, highest projected ceiling, highest Projected Plus/Minus, Projected Pts/Sal, Pro Trends, and Bargain Rating. His combination of upside and consistency make him a strong consideration in cash games.
RB-D/ST (DK): Dion Lewis – Patriots D/ST
This could be the chalk stack of the week, as both Lewis and the Patriots D/ST having high projected ownership. Lewis was quiet for the first month of his return, but the Patriots were simply easing him back into action. Over the last three games, he’s averaged 15 carries and two targets per game.
The Patriots defense has the easiest matchup of the slate, given that it’s facing the inefficient Brock Osweiler. In the Levitan Model, the Pats 80.1 rating is 26.3 points higher than that of the next defense.
QB-RB-WR (FD): Aaron Rodgers – Ty Montogomery – Davante Adams
Rodgers has the highest median projection among QBs at 22.7 points, but that doesn’t come cheaply. He’s the most expensive QB on the slate, but he also has the highest FD Bargain Rating at the position as well as the best combination of Consistency and Upside over the last year.
The Packers have somehow made it this far without a true RB. Montgomery dabbled at RB in college and has had some strong performances this year, but he struggled in his first playoff start. On the positive side, he does lead the Packers with 46.81 percent of the team’s carries and seven opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the last month (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report). He has the second-highest Bargain Rating among RBs.
Adams has stepped up in a big way this season, scoring 13 TDs this year and seven TDs in his last seven games (including postseason). Jordy Nelson is out, and Adams is expected to operate as the team’s No. 1 WR. He leads the position with a projected ceiling of 23.9 points.
QB-RB-WR-WR (DK): Matt Ryan – Devonta Freeman – Julio Jones – Mohamed Sanu
Despite a tough matchup against the Seahawks, Ryan has a position-high projected floor of 12.4 points. He scored 26.6 DK points against the Seahawks in Week 6 — and that was on the road. Ryan hasn’t thrown a pick in four straight games, and the Vegas game total of 51.5 is very appealing.
Freeman is one of the chalk RBs of the week, and it’s easy to see why. Freeman has the position’s third-highest projected ceiling at just $5,900, and he leads the slate with 10 Pro Trends. Plus, Freeman is an absolute stud at home. Per our Trends tool:
Sanu has the best matchup of Atlanta’s WRs, as he’ll be matched up most of the game with slot CB Jeremy Lane, who has a below-average PFF coverage grade of 67.8. He has only 10 targets over the last three games, but in Week 6 he was targeted a season-high 10 times, finishing with a 5/47/1 stat line. He’s just $4,000, and his 2.5 Projected Pts/Sal is appealing.
Jones is probably the most intriguing player in the slate. Jones exploded for a 7/139/1 line against the Seahawks in Week 6. CB Richard Sherman is expected to shadow Jones this weekend — but he shadowed Jones in Week 6 on 31 of his 44 routes (per PFF), and he often doesn’t play in the slot. Jones has run 27 percent of his routes from the slot this year, and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will likely move Jones all the formation to scheme him open. Jones carries risk, but his high floor and ceiling projections make him a worthwhile investment.
Good luck this weekend!