The Week 8 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 8: Wide Receivers
You know the drill. As I pointed out in the WR Breakdown last week — and have pointed out for several weeks now — our Bargain Rating metric indicates that DraftKings WRs are more expensive than a gallon of water in the middle of a desert and FD WRs are cheaper than dirt. In fact, the disparity in WR pricing is growing.
On DK, the average Bargain Rating of the eight WRs with the highest salaries is literally 0.625 percent. Five of those eight guys have zero percent Bargain Ratings. It’s not till we get to $4,900 that we see a DK WR with a Bargain Rating higher than 30 percent.
On FD, seven of the eight guys with the highest salaries have Bargain Ratings of at least 95 percent. Not till $6,600 do we see a FD WR with a Bargain Rating lower than 70 percent.
If you look at the pricing for all DK players, you’ll notice that eight of the 12-highest salaries in the slate belong to WRs. DK is really valuing its point-per-reception scoring. On FD, only two of the 12-highest salaries belong to WRs.
If you’re paying up for a DK WR, just be aware that you’re really paying up, at least from a historical perspective. And paying up even more than you were last week.
The Big Four
This week, the same four guys have the highest DK and FD WR salaries. Obviously this Big Four isn’t identical to last week’s Big Four, since Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham are both on bye, but on both sites there’s still a clear top tier of WRs who are ranked exactly the same.
• Julio Jones: $9,600 DK (WR1), $9,200 FD (WR1)
• A.J. Green: $8,800 DK (WR2), $8,500 FD (WR2)
• Mike Evans: $8,100 DK (WR3), $7,900 FD (WR3)
• T.Y. Hilton: $7,900 DK (WR4), $7,800 FD (WR4)
To quote T-Rex: “Get it on / Bang a gong / Get it on.”
Supreme Being
Not much actually needs to be said about Julio. Per our Trends tool:
He leads the league with 118.6 receiving yards per game (YPG) and this season has experienced some positive reversion to the mean in his TD production. The DK WR1 and FD WR2, Julio has chalktastic FantasyLabs ownership projections of 26 to 30 and 31 to 40 percent on DK and FD — and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
On the one hand, it’s ridiculous for a guy to be rostered that heavily when he has the highest salary — not just for his position but for all positions. On the other hand, I wrote that same sentence last week, and Julio proceeded to turn 15 targets into nine receptions and 174 yards, good for 29.4 DK and 21.9 FD points.
Can you really say that Julio doesn’t deserve that ownership? As FantasyLabs co-founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) mentions on every episode of the NFL Fantasy Flex pod, Julio looks like an assassin — and Pete’s not just talking about the moustache.
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Julio over the last month has accounted for 32.14 percent of the Falcons’ targets . . .
. . . and a gargantuan 51.42 percent of the team’s Air Yards:
Air Yards is a metric created by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer, and it helps us see how a receiver produces his receiving yards and how leveraged his targets are. Julio has only two games this season with double-digit targets, and the fact that he has only one more target this year than someone like Tavon F*cking Austin is an embarrassment to the institution of football, but when he’s targeted Julio gets premium targets. He doesn’t actually need many targets because he’s getting the ball so deep.
And that’s why it’s easy to see that Julio’s production isn’t a fluke.
This season, the Falcons have exceeded their implied Vegas totals by a league-high average of 9.0 PPG and are now three-point home favorites with a slate-high implied Vegas total of 27.75 points. Julio’s going against the Packers and, per our Matchups tool, is slated to face cornerback Ladarius Gunter for most of the game. In his WR/CB Matchups piece, John Proctor considers Julio to have a favorable matchup this week, as Gunter has an average Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 71.8. That’s not horrendous — but he isn’t even a top-60 cover CB.
Per Football Outsiders, the Packers are 26th against No. 1 WRs in pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), allowing an average 104.0 YPG.
Yes, yes, yes.
London Calling
Green leads the NFL with 50 receptions, and he’s second with 110.7 receiving YPG. On the season, he’s a top-three WR with 22.07 DK and 17.21 FD points. Over the last four games, Green leads the Bengals with 29.92 and 40.00 percent of the team’s targets and Air Yards.
The Bengals are three-point favorites implied to score 25.25 points against the Redskins, who — despite having shutdown CB Josh Norman — are 22nd against No. 1 WRs in pass DVOA, allowing them to average 89.4 YPG. Norman is currently in the concussion protocol, but he’s expected to play this week and spend much of the game shadowing Green. Of course, there will still likely be some snaps in which Green is in the slot or matched up against CB Bashaud Breeland, who has a PFF coverage rank of 111 (out of 116). Green should still have the opportunity to produce.
Also, the Bengals are favorites in the London game, which historically has seen the favored team win big and put up a lot of fantasy points. That event has tended to give some serious juice to the No. 1 WRs on the favored teams:
It’s worth noting that these receivers in particular have done well on FD, where Green is second in Pro Trends, sports a 99 percent Bargain Rating, and has the highest rating in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models.
If you want to roster Green this week, you’ll need exposure to him in either the 13-game slate or the two-game Thursday/London offering. He might have elevated ownership in the large Thursday slate, but he’s probably still worth strategically rostering in a few guaranteed prize pools. He has a top-three projection.
Is It Just Me?
Or does it seem as if a lot of people are still coming around to the idea that Evans is good? Did they not figure that out when he ran a 4.53-second 40-yard dash at the combine at 6’5″ and 231 lbs.? — or when he caught 12 TDs in 15 games as a 21-year-old rookie? — or had 1,206 YPG in his second season?
Evans is the FD WR1 with 18.42 PPG. He has a +5.46 Plus/Minus with an 83.3 percent Consistency rating. Two observations:
- Almost no one at the beginning of the season would have predicted that halfway into the season he would be more productive on FD than Antonio, OBJ, Julio, and AJ.
- He’s currently priced at $7,900 FD — just as he was in Week 1 — and that’s ridiculous:
Evans has the slate’s highest WR projection, and he also has slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of 31 to 40 percent — so there are definitely people who are on Evans, but if you look at Evans in our Trends tool . . .
. . . you’ll notice that Evans over the course of the season has had ownership levels that are absurdly low for a guy who is first, fourth, fifth, and first in the league with 12.5 targets, 6.7 receptions, 90.8 yards, and one TD reception per game.
Up to this point, Evans has been eligible for the Millionaire Maker and Sunday Million in five weeks. For four of those weeks, his ownership never broke eight percent on DK and 10 percent on FD. It wasn’t until last week, when his ownership exploded — in part because of his advantageous matchup against the 49ers — that he became a chalky play.
Moving forward, Evans should probably be chalky regardless of his matchup. It’s nice that this week the Buccaneers are one-point home favorites implied to score 25 points against the Raiders, who allow the most yards receiving to WRs and defensively are 26th in pass DVOA — but you should roster Evans in guaranteed prize pools not because of his matchup but because he’s a full-on stud who needs to be rostered always.
Evans is the highest-rated WR in the Levitan Model for DK and FD.
Thank You, Thank You, Thank You
The Raiders might allow the most YPG to WRs, but some team has to allow the second-most YPG to the position, and that team is the Chiefs, who also allow the most fantasy points (46.3 DK and 36.1 FD PPG) to WRs.
Against No. 1 WRs (with the exception of Keenan Allen, who was injured in his Week 1 matchup against the team), the Chiefs have been exploited regularly:
This week, the Colts are 2.5-point home underdogs implied to score 23.75 points against the Chiefs. The Colts will likely be inclined to throw the ball, and Hilton is positioned to benefit: He’s second in the league with 10.9 targets per game — the fewest targets he’s seen is nine — and he’s fourth with 98.4 YPG.
Per our Matchups tool, Hilton is likely to run most of his routes out of the slot against CB Steven Nelson, who has a poor 48.5 PFF coverage grade, ranking 96th out of 116 eligible CBs. Per John Proctor, this matchup for Hilton should be considered a definite upgrade, and per PFF’s WR/CB chart Hilton has a top-five matchup in the slate.
Over the last month, Hilton has 28.19 percent of the Colts’ targets and 44.23 percent of their Air Yards. As we’d expect with Hilton, he’s getting the ball deep. There’s a decent chance that we might see a little bit of this on Sunday:
Hilton has chalky-ish FantasyLabs ownership projections of 17 to 20 percent.
Fly Patterns
Nine route, go.
Amari Cooper ($7,600 DK, $7,500 FD): Cooper is eighth in the NFL with 87.8 receiving YPG, and he’s getting regular opportunity with 9.3 targets per game. The Raiders are playing on the road against the Bucs in what has now moved to a pick’em. Per our Matchups tool, Cooper is expected to be matched up with CB Vernon Hargreaves III for most of the game. Hargreaves has a below-average PFF coverage grade of 63.1. Cooper, with his FantasyLabs ownership projections of 13 to 16 percent, has the potential to exploit the matchup.
Larry Fitzgerald ($7,500 DK, $7,000 FD): The Cardinals are three-point road underdogs implied to score only 22 points against the Panthers, but I’m optimistic that the Cards’ passing game will be able to produce against the Panthers, whose funnel defense is 27th in pass DVOA. Fitzy — tied for fourth in the NFL with 10.0 targets per game — is set to run most of his routes in the slot against CB Robert McClain, who has a poor PFF coverage grade of 52.4.
Chris Hogan ($4,400 DK, $5,200 FD): In three games with QB Tom Brady, Hogan has eight targets, seven receptions, and 178 yards, as well as one rush for two yards. He’s a big-play machine. Over the last month, he’s seen only 7.75 percent of the Patriots’ targets, but he has 22.48 percent of the team’s Air Yards. He makes for an excellent receiver in a Pats GPP stack.
Julian Edelman ($6,300 DK, $6,500 FD): He’s been targeted 27 times in three games with Brady as the starter, but he has only 125 yards and no TDs. It doesn’t help his case that tight end Rob Gronkowski and Hogan have more Air Yards than he does over the last month, but at some point the production will come.
Jordy Nelson ($7,200 DK, $7,500 FD): Nelson has been pretty nonexistent the last two weeks, but he was a stud to open the season:
Falcons stud CB Desmond Trufant is expected to cover Nelson for most of his routes, and so it’s possible that lots of people will be off of Jordy: He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of five to eight percent. At the same time, it’s possible that Trufant won’t exclusively cover Nelson, who leads the Packers with four targets inside the 10-yard line over the last month. In the aggregate, Nelson is still a guy with five TDs over the last six games, and he’s tied for second at the position with nine FD Pro Trends.
Ty Montgomery ($5,300 DK WR, $6,400 FD RB): This is basically just a reminder that A) Montgomery is a RB on FD this week and B) rostering players in bizarre positional situations is a way to be contrarian. Of course, if you want to roster Montgomery as a DK WR, that’s fine with me:
Where there are touches eventually there are also touchdowns.
Terrelle Pryor ($6,100 DK, $6,900 FD): Pryor’s facing the Jets and their horrid funnel defense, which ranks 31st in pass DVOA. Pryor gets to run the majority of his routes against CB Darrelle Revis, which PFF has ranked as its sixth-most advantageous matchup this week.
Stefon Diggs ($5,600 DK, $6,700 FD) and Adam Thielen ($3,800 DK, $5,400 FD): The Bears allow the fourth-most fantasy points (43.7 DK and 34.5 FD PPG) to WRs. Diggs is set to run most of his routes against CB Tracy Porter, who has merely an average 71.9 PFF coverage grade. And Thielen over the last four games has 15.04 percent of the Vikings’ targets but 30.01 percent of their Air Yards.
Doug Baldwin ($6,900 DK, $7,200 FD): Baldwin is playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football, he’s priced outside of the top-12, and he has FantasyLabs ownership projections of ‘only’ 13 to 16 percent. Baldwin is expected to run most of his routes out of the slot against CB DeVante Harris — a matchup that PFF has ranked its most advantageous of the week.
Brandin Cooks ($7,300 DK, $7,200 FD), Willie Snead ($5,800 DK, $6,400 FD), and Michael Thomas ($5,000 DK, $5,700 FD): One of these guys will have a fairly good game, as Brees won’t be completely shut out even if he struggles. Snead has the lowest FantasyLabs projections of the group. He’s the one I’d roster.
Brandon LaFell ($4,300 DK, $6,000 FD): In talking about Green earlier, I mentioned Breeland, the horrific Redskins CB. He’ll be spending most of the game defending LaFell, who has four TDs in the last three games and leads the Bengals with four targets inside the 10-yard line over the last month.
Marqise Lee ($3,300 DK, $4,500 FD): Never did I think that I would highlight Lee, but he’s averaging 6.3 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 56.2 yards per game. So . . . two words: Cox, Perrish.
The Super Model:
Remember how Evans is the highest-rated WR in the Levitan Model for DK and FD, in part because he’s facing the Raiders, who allow the most yards receiving to WRs and defensively are 26th in pass DVOA?
Well, Bucs slot WR Adam Humphries ($3,000 DK, $5,000 FD) is currently the highest-rated DK WR in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models. Yes, he’s seen only five targets in the last two games, and he’s seemingly been jumped by Russell Shepard, who last week turned six targets into a 5-77-1 stat line — but Humphries is cheap, he has (theoretical) peripheral upside in that he returns kicks and occasionally gets a carry, and early this season he did turn 12 targets into a 9-100-0 ‘what the f*ck?’ performance that perhaps could be repeated.
He’s slated to run most of his routes out of the slot against CB D.J. Hayden, who has a poor 47.9 PFF coverage grade. With FantasyLabs ownership projections of zero to one percent, Humphries could hold his own in some unique GPP lineups if he’s able to add a touchdown to a handful of receptions and yards.
You never know.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 8 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s WRs for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
