The Week 8 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 8 Tight Ends
Let’s start the way we always do . . .
To Groahhhh . . . aham or Not to Graham
Fooled you, punk! Week 8 is all about Jimmy Graham ($6,100 DK, $6,700 FD). Graham is back . . . and he’s back.
In the words of Jim Moriarty . . .
It’s not just that Graham is (mostly) healthy and (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report) has dominated the Seahawks with 27.07 percent of the targets over the last four games . . .
. . . or that his 34.54 percent of the team’s Air Yards . . .
. . . is something that we’d usually see from a wide receiver, not a TE, even a hybrid TE like Graham. And it’s not just that Graham’s four-game renaissance when extrapolated to 16 games (via RotoViz) . . .
. . . would give him the greatest receiving season ever for a TE (in terms of yardage receiving).
It’s that this week, for the first time in his career, he will play at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football not as a Saint. This week, he will play against the team that drafted him, made him into one of the best TEs of all time, and then traded him away at the height of his value for an offensive lineman and a draft pick.
That’s a great f*cking story.
On this week’s NFL Fantasy Flex pod, Adam Levitan mentioned this narrative and wondered how many people are going to buy into it. As it turns out, we expect that a lot of people are going to have a strong interest in Graham. Right now, in our Player Models, he has slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of 17 to 20 and 31 to 40 percent on DK and FD.
Based on his past month, it’s hard to say that Graham doesn’t deserve the ownership. Per our Trends tool:
And it’s not as if the Saints are good against TEs. In fact, they’re #notgood. Last year, they allowed the most fantasy points to TEs, and against Greg Olsen and Hunter Henry — the two TEs they’ve played who are comparable to Graham in athleticism and role in their offenses — the Saints were “The ‘Ain’ts”:
The sample is small, but it’s intriguing. It’s hard to ignore those point totals and Plus/Minus values. In fact . . . why not?
INSERT HERE STANDARD BLURB ABOUT THE SAINTS . . .
You probably already know this, but last year the Saints defense allowed an NFL-record 45 touchdowns passing and was dead last in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). This year, the defense is 28th in pass DVOA and 26th against TEs in particular. Teams are scoring against them on 46.3 percent of their drives (the league’s second-highest mark), and defensively the Saints are 30th, 32nd, and 31st with 39.23 yards, 2.70 points, and 0.031 INTS per drive.
Over the last 16 games, they’ve allowed a 57.09 percent success rate on pass attempts and a 27.88 percent TD rate in the red zone, which are the highest and second-highest marks in the slate. In every game this year, they’ve allowed either 300 yards or multiple TDs receiving — and Graham is the No. 1 receiver on his team.
The Saints are dead last in the NFL with 32.5 PPG allowed, and the Seahawks are 2.5-point favorites with an implied Vegas total of 25.25 points . . .
You can see how easy it is to buy into all of that — but if you roster Graham in guaranteed prize pools you’d probably be wise to be underweight on your investment: 17 to 20 and 31 to 40 percent ownership on DK and FD is really high for a guy who has only four targets in the red zone this season and no targets inside the 10-yard line within the last month.
Can you really trust a guy who has one TD as we enter the last weekend of October?
Graham carries an inordinate amount of risk.
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, I’m throwing the ball.
Delanie Walker ($4,700 DK, $6,500 FD): He leads the Titans with 330 yards and three TDs, but this week he faces a Jaguars team that allows the second-fewest yards per game (YPG) to the position and is seventh against TEs in pass DVOA.
This is probably one Thursday player you don’t need to play.
Greg Olsen ($6,500 DK, $7,400 FD): Olsen is basically Graham . . . except more expensive and with a horrible matchup. Over the last month, he’s dominated the Panthers with 27.22 percent of the targets . . .
. . . and 30.48 percent of the Air Yards.
He’s tied for fourth in the NFL with 10 targets per game, and he’s third among all receivers with an average of 101.7 YPG. He’s easily the TE1 on the season with 20.00 DK and 15.75 FD PPG.
But this week, he’s playing against the Cardinals, who allow the second-fewest yards (26.4), second-fewest DK points (5.6), and fewest FD points (4.1) per game to TEs. Defensively, the Cardinals are fifth in pass DVOA against TEs, presumably in part because of rockstar safety Tyrann Mathieu.
Last week, the Cardinals held Graham to 10.30 DK and 7.80 FD points. It’s doubtful that we can rely on Olsen to do much better than that.
Jordan Reed ($5,900 DK, $6,800 FD): Per the FantasyLabs News feed, Reed (concussion) is expected to return to action this week in the London game. Historically, the London game has provided outsized production almost exclusively to the skill players on the favored team, but there is one exception — the expensive underdog TE returning from a multi-game absence due to brain trauma. That guy always crushes when you have to invest in him on a Thursday night.
Let’s see, is there anyone else important we need to talk about?
Rob Gronkowski ($7,000 DK, $8,100 FD): In his three games with quarterback Tom Brady, Gronk has only 6.7 targets per game, which isn’t a lot for a TE who is more expensive than most good WRs. Still . . .
It’s not dumb to want a piece of Gronk. Over the last month, he has only 17.05 percent of the targets but a team-high 25.52 percent of the Air Yards. Even if Gronk isn’t getting a lot of targets, he’s being thrown to down the field, as gestured toward by his 22.1 yards per reception.
His FantasyLabs ownership projections are high — 17 to 20 percent — but he’s playing against a Bills team that is 23rd against TEs in pass DVOA. Gronk is more expensive than Graham, but he might actually be preferable in some tournaments.
Tyler Eifert ($4,100 DK, $5,600 FD): Too dangerous to roster till we’ve seen him regain his form, especially in a London game.
Travis Kelce ($4,900 DK, $5,700 FD): The Chiefs are playing against the Colts, who defensively are last in the league in pass DVOA against TEs. He’s not consistent, but he is this week’s highest-rated FD TE in every Pro Model: Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek.
Gary Barnidge ($3,300 DK, $5,000 FD): He gets QB Josh McCown back, and he faces a Jets defense that is 20th against TEs in pass DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA overall.
C.J. Fiedorowicz ($2,800 DK, $4,900 FD): He’s asserted himself over the last four games . . .
. . . and now he gets to face a Lions defense that has allowed literally 19 TDs to TEs over the last 23 games.
Kyle Rudolph ($3,500 DK, $5,100 FD): He’s cheap and the Bears are 19th in pass DVOA against TEs.
Richard Rodgers ($2,700 DK, $4,800 FD): He’s playing against the Falcons, who have given up five TDs in seven games this season and are allowing the third-most fantasy points (18.2 DK and 14.7 FD PPG) to TEs.
Antonio Gates ($2,700 DK, $5,300 FD): He has a sh*tty matchup against the Broncos, but he got 10 targets last game and might be playing without Hunter Henry (concussion). He’s the highest-rated DK TE in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models.
Coby Fleener ($3,400 DK, $5,700 FD): The Seahawks defense is 25th in pass DVOA against TEs, and Fleener has done well at the Superdome:
There’s more than one TE playing in New Orleans this weekend. Just sayin’.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 8 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s TEs for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
