The Week 8 NFL Dashboard
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Week 8: Running Backs
As I said in last week’s RB Breakdown, “I don’t even know why I start researching for this piece on Monday. It’s as if half of the RBs who are semi-healthy starters early in the week are dead by Thursday morning.”
But, seriously, last week at this time I wasn’t totally sure what to say about Jay Ajayi because there was the possibility that Arian Foster might cut into his workload. This week, Foster isn’t even an NFL player.
When we say that opportunity is everything for RBs, this landscape of uncertainty is the context in which that statement is made.
A Quick Reminder on Pricing
As I highlighted in the RB Breakdown last week and several weeks before that, DraftKings RBs are expensive. FanDuel RBs, cheap. The present disparity in pricing is not as great as it has been, but it’s still something to arbitrage where possible.
Not till the player priced as RB20 on DK do we see a Bargain Rating in the top quartile. Among the six RBs with the highest salaries, four have Bargain Ratings lower than five percent.
One important change on DK is that the big grinders who don’t catch passes — the guys who for the entire season have been heavily discounted, given the site’s point-per-reception (PPR) scoring — those guys are no longer massively discounted.
For instance, just last f*cking week ‘Bengals Grinder’ had a 99 percent Bargain Rating. ‘Patriots Grinder’ had a 90 percent Bargain Rating. Multiple other big-bodied RBs had Bargain Ratings of 90 percent or higher. This week, Hill’s DK Bargain Rating is 82 percent. It will probably be much lower next week, if Blount’s 17 percent current rating is any indication.
Bottom line: A prior source of big value on DK no longer exists.
On FD, the value is much easier to find. All six RBs with the highest salaries have Bargain Ratings in the top quintile. Among the RBs with top-12 salaries at the position, only one has a Bargain Rating in the bottom quartile: The aforementioned Hill. If you look at the FD Player Models, you’re basically swimming in green.
If you play on both DK and FD, be sure to get your exposure to RBs on the platforms that offer the most value (and thus margin of error) for each player.
The Big Six
This week’s Big Six (in terms of pricing) is a formidable bunch. Per our Trends tool:
Remember, this week, the Steelers, Rams, 49ers, and Dolphins are on bye so Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Carlos Hyde, and Ajayi are absent from the slate. I’m sure that you, like me, are awaiting Ajayi’s Week 9 salary with delicious anticipation.
Here are the Big Six of Week 8:
• David Johnson: $7,700 DK (RB1), $8,700 FD (RB1)
• DeMarco Murray: $7,400 DK (RB2), $8,300 FD (RB3)
• Ezekiel Elliott: $7,200 DK (RB4), $8,500 FD (RB2)
• Christine Michael: $7,300 DK (RB3), $7,800 FD (RB4)
• LeSean McCoy: $7,100 DK (RB5), $7,800 FD (RB5)
• Spencer Ware: $6,800 DK (RB6), $7,400 FD (RB6)
A few things about these guys:
- On DK, these guys are available within a fairly tight salary range. On FD, there’s a sizable gap between the top and bottom halves of the cohort.
- They are all three-down workhorses with good pass-catching skills. There aren’t many guys like them in the NFL.
The Big Johnson
Johnson is easily the current RB1 in PPG . . .
. . . and he’s priced as the RB1. If you want him, you’ll have to pay fair value.
Johnson seemingly doesn’t have a great matchup — the Cardinals are three-point road underdogs with an implied Vegas total of only 22.5 points against the Panthers, who defensively are sixth against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) — but that might not matter. Regardless of however many points the Cardinals score or whomever they are playing, Johnson gets his fantasy production.
Johnson will likely be involved throughout the game, he has 11 carries within the 10-yard line over the last month, and he leads the team with 36.2 and 44.4 percent of the yardage and touchdowns from scrimmage. Unsurprisingly, he leads the entire NFL with 146 rushes, eight TDs rushing, and 1,004 scrimmage yards.
Averaging 6.57 targets per game on the season and an 18.59 percent target share over the last month, Johnson might do a large portion of his damage as a receiver. A freak athlete — at 224 lbs., Johnson (per Player Profiler) has an elite 95th percentile SPARQ-x score — Johnson is averaging 46.1 receiving yards per game (YPG) this season. He’s a multi-dimensional back who is an entirely game flow-independent daily fantasy sports asset.
Across his 23 career games, he has scored 21 TDs, even though he’s started only 12 games. This season, Johnson is averaging 27.4 opportunities per game. If Rob Gronkowski were a RB who were used as if he were the best player on his team, he’d be Johnson.
He has chalky-ish FantasyLabs ownership projections of 13 to 16 percent. If you don’t mind paying up for a RB, Johnson’s a fine option. He’s the best RB in the NFL. Or at least the best RB in this slate. Or at least one of the best RBs . . .
The Murracle
DeMarco is playing in the Thursday game, so he will likely have elevated ownership if you use him in the 13-game slate.
That said, the Titans are 3.5-point home favorites implied to score 23.3 points against the Jaguars, who defensively are 24th in rush DVOA (and eighth in pass DVOA), which looks something like . . .
DeMarco is the slate’s RB2 with 22.79 DK and 19.43 FD points on the season, and against lead backs this year the Jaguars are allowing +4.78 DK and +4.64 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values. He leads his team in rushes (13) and targets (two) inside the 10-yard line over the last four games.
Are You a Geek for Zeke?
The Cowboys rookie leads the NFL with 703 yards rushing . . . and he was on bye last week. With 117.2 rushing YPG, he’s the only RB in the league with a mark above 100. And he’s proven himself to be a competent receiver, with a catch rate of 78.6 percent.
The Cowboys are 4.5-point home favorites implied to score 24 points against the Eagles, who defensively are second in total DVOA but most vulnerable to RBs. Whereas the defense is first in pass DVOA, it’s 13th in rush DVOA and 23rd in pass DVOA against RBs.
With 25.17 opportunities per game and seven carries inside the 10-yard line over the last month, Zeke has a reasonable chance of exceeding value, especially since the Eagles defense, though stout this season, has exhibited vulnerability on the road against lead backs:
If you’re looking for an alternative to Johnson, Zeke might be it. He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 and 13 to 16 percent on DK and FD.
The Awakening
Frankly, it was never my favorite Chopin. I prefer the nocturnes. Op. 27 No. 2 in D-flat major is always a strong choice — but that’s just me.
Michael has led the Seahawks in carries each game this season, but it wasn’t really till Week 3 that the team decided to unleash him. Since then . . .
. . . he’s been very good, with +6.33 DK and +6.91 FD Plus/Minus values and a 75 percent Consistency rating.
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, over the last four games, Michael leads the team with eight carries and two targets inside the 10-yard line, and he’s also third on the team with 11.28 percent of the targets. He’s utterly cemented as the lead back with 69.9 percent of the team’s carries in that span.
And Michael has a good matchup. The Seahawks are playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy fooball as 2.5-point favorites implied to score 25.25 points against the Saints, who defensively are 28th in rush DVOA. On a per-game basis, they’ve allowed the most TDs and fantasy points (33.3 DK and 29.7 FD PPG) to RBs.
In other words:
We discussed Michael on this week’s NFL Fantasy Flex podcast. The consensus was that he might be relatively chalky, but given his potential he has very palatable FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 percent.
Michael certainly has RB1 upside in this slate and is $900 cheaper than Johnson on FD, where he happens to have a slate-high 99 percent Bargain Rating and is the highest-rated RB in the Levitan and Sports Geek Models.
The Real McCoy?
I love LeSean. But last week he was LeSh*t, and I don’t mean that in a good way. Despite his horrid, injury-impacted Week 7 performance, McCoy is still the RB6 with 20.21 DK and 17.43 FD PPG on the season — but (per the FantasyLabs News feed) he’s still in the same f*cking situation he was in last week: He might (but almost certainly shouldn’t) play. He’s officially listed as doubtful.
As long as his hamstring is an issue — and McCoy missed four games last year due to injury — he’s utterly untouchable.
And what makes this situation especially suboptimal is that backup RB Mike Gillislee ($3,800 DK, $5,900 FD) is dealing with a foot injury and isn’t certain to play this week either. And if he can’t play then I suppose that rookie RB Jonathan Williams ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD) would certainly be interesting, although one has to wonder how well he’d do against a Patriots defense that is fifth in rush DVOA and holding lead backs to only 13.80 DK and 11.94 FD points on the season.
McCoy isn’t even currently in our Player Models, but in his place Gillislee is intriguing on DK, where he has an 87 percent Bargain Rating and the slate’s fourth-highest +5.55 Projected Plus/Minus. As a backup in Buffalo, Gillislee has been very productive . . .
. . . averaging 8.35 yards per carry (YPC), catching 90 percent of his targets, averaging 39.3 scrimmage YPG, and scoring 0.55 TDs per contest. That’s Michael Turner-backing up-LaDainian Tomlinson type of production.
He currently has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of 13 to 16 percent on DK. If McCoy is declared out, Gillislee’s ownership will likely be much higher.
I Don’t Want to Ware Out a Mediocre Pun
I don’t want to belabor this: Ware is a top-10 fantasy RB on the season, he’s the undoubted RB1 on his team, and the Chiefs are 2.5-point road favorites implied to score 26.25 points against a Colts team that defensively is dead last in rush DVOA.
He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 percent on DK and 13 to 16 percent on FD.
Up the Gut
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
Melvin Gordon ($5,700 DK, $7,200 FD): MG3 is a volume-bloated, inefficient, TD-reliant back . . . but volume is everything, and he’s gotten a league-high 88.42 percent of his team’s carries and 11 opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the last month. He leads the league with 10 TDs from scrimmage and has scored in every game this year but one. That game actually came two weeks ago against the Broncos. Still, MG3 finished with 94 yards rushing. The Chargers are five-point road underdogs implied to score only 19.25 points, but the Broncos defense is weakest against the run (14th in DVOA). MG3 is likely to be heavily involved no matter what. He’s first and second among RBs in DK and FD Pro Trends.
Lamar Miller ($6,300 DK, $7,400 FD): Miller’s averaging 99.7 scrimmage YPG, and the Texans are 2.5-point home favorites implied to score 23.75 points against a Lions team that defensively is 25th in rush DVOA. At home, Miller is averaging 20.00 DK and 17.00 FD PPG.
LeGarrette Blount ($5,300 DK, $6,600 FD): He’s not quite as productive with QB Tom Brady back . . .
. . . oh, wait, scratch that. He’s more productive with Brady, you f*ckers. Remember, TDs are worth more than carries and yards.
James White ($4,800 DK, $5,800 FD): Someone else is also more productive with Brady. Since last season, when Brady has been active and White has been used in the passing game . . .
. . . he’s basically been Tavon Austin, aside from the fact that he’s not a small overpaid wide receiver. On this week’s NFL Fantasy Flex podcast, we talked about White as a sneaky contrarian stacking option with Brady. Honestly, I don’t know if it’s even that contrarian. Based on what White has done with Brady this year . . .
. . . White should definitely be considered in stacks with Brady.
Jeremy Hill ($4,500 DK, $6,500 FD) and Giovani Bernard ($5,200 DK, $6,200 FD): Both of these guys have the London Game advantage, and the Redskins have a RB-friendly funnel defense that is 31st in rush DVOA. Also, at a time when the United States is trying to convince the world that we’re not a bunch of racist nationalistic xenophobes, it’s a great time to send the f*cking Redskins to England as ambassadors of the NFL.
Jacquizz Rodgers ($5,800 DK, $6,600 FD): The hobbit has trekked through Mordor for two weeks now as the one chosen to carry the Ring. He’s done well in terms of PPG:
Whenever a non-hobbit RB comes along and tries to take the starting job, I’m not sure how desirous Rodgers will be to give up his precious. This week, Quizz has an excellent opportunity to eat some juicy orcs, as the Bucs are one-point home favorites implied to score 25 points against the Raiders, who defensively are 27th in rush DVOA.
Theo Riddick ($5,000 DK, $5,900 FD): Riddick (ankle) is expected to return to game action this week. On the season, Riddick is averaging 17.22 DK and 14.62 FD PPG, and the Lions are 2.5-point road underdogs implied to score 21.25 points against the Texans, who are 21st in pass DVOA. He’s likely to get his targets and to do something with them.
Robert Kelley ($3,000 DK, $5,100 FD): Redskins starting RB Matt Jones has been declared out for the London game. Kelley’s starting in his place as an intriguing injury fill-in against the Bengals, whose defense is 23rd in rush DVOA.
Ty Montgomery ($5,300 DK RB, $6,400 FD RB): This is basically just a reminder that A) Montgomery is a RB on FD this week and B) rostering players in bizarre positional situations is a way to be contrarian.
The Super Models
This week, we have three non-Christine runners at the top of our four Pro Models:
• Isaiah Crowell: $3,700 DK, $5,900 FD
• Devonta Freeman: $6,500 DK, $6,900 FD
• Devontae Booker: $3,700 DK, $5,600 FD
Let’s do this.
Cros Before Something Else That Rhymes With “Cros”
For a big-bodied two-down back who isn’t especially great at catching the ball and is losing significant snaps to another RB while being on an 0-7 team that has given real quarterback snaps to five QBs and a wide receiver who used to pretend to play QB, Crowell is actually doing pretty well this season. You can’t expect much more from a guy in that situation than the 86 scrimmage YPG and 0.57 TDs per game that he’s offering.
So let’s acknowledge that Crowell has done admirably up to this point in the season. OK . . . now I can feel better about trashing him.
This is a horrible spot for Cro. His QB situation is uncertain, which might mean that he gets more carries, but it also might mean that the offense as a whole just stagnates. The Browns are three-point home underdogs implied to score only 20.3 points against the Jets, whose funnel defense (with its No. 3 rush DVOA) flows away from RBs.
What Crowell has going for him is that he’s cheap on DK, where he has a 90 percent Bargain Rating and has a reasonable shot of finishing at least in the vicinity of his salary-based implied total of 6.76 points.
I don’t love him. I doubt that anyone actually loves him. But he’s the highest-rated DK RB in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models and has a decent chance of providing value this weekend. That’s worth something.
One Letter Shy of Greatness
Freeman has been inconsistent this year because of the emergence of Tevin Coleman, but Devonta is still pacing for almost 1,550 scrimmage yards as the lead RB on the highest-scoring team in the league. Coleman is expected to miss Week 8 with a hamstring injury, which gives Freeman the bulk of the RB opportunities all to himself.
Of course, Freeman is dealing with a hip injury. He was a non-contact participant in Wednesday’s practice and is uncertain to play. He’s the highest-rated FD RB in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models, and if he plays he should be rostered heavily — he has FantasyLabs ownership projections of 31 to 40 percent, and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year — but if he can’t play then you might want to consider No. 3 RB Terron Ward, who’s $4,500 FD and not even available on DK.
Then again, it’s not a great matchup. Freeman could probably exploit it because he’s a great all-around back, but Ward isn’t, and he’d be going up against the Packers, who defensively allow the fewest fantasy points (15.4 DK and 12.7 FD PPG) to RBs and are second in rush DVOA.
Honestly, if Freeman plays but is reportedly still dealing with the hip issue, he’ll be a guy to consider weighting less in tournaments than his projected ownership.
Not to Be Confused With the Previous Guy
[Insert here 1,000 words on Booker.] I hope that you can see why I liked him in college and thought that he should’ve been one of the top RBs selected in this year’s draft. He’s a workhorse with good size and strong receiving ability. With C.J. Anderson out for Week 8, Booker is positioned to dominate the touches in this backfield, which is partially why he’s the highest-rated DK RB in the Levitan and Sports Geek Models.It also helps that the Broncos are five-point home favorites implied to score 24.25 points against the Chargers, who defensively are 18th in rush DVOA and 22nd in pass DVOA against RBs. The Chargers are allowing 32.5 DK and 27.7 FD PPG to RBs, the second-highest marks in the slate.
In other words . . .
Booker has FantasyLabs ownership projections of 41-plus and 31 to 40 percent on DK and FD.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 8 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s RBs for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
