The Week 8 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 8: Quarterbacks
Before you do anything else, check out this week’s QB Model Preview by FantasyLabs co-founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88). It delivers a ton of straight-up stone dopeness in only 11:27.
Moving on . . .
A Few Words of Guidance
I consider the QB Breakdown to be the most important of the four positional pieces. It’s the longest, and it touches on the player (the QB) who has the most impact on a team’s offense and passing game in particular. As a result, if you read this piece, you’ll have a pretty decent idea of most of the players I’m going to write about and the analysis I’m going to give in the WR Breakdown and maybe even the TE Breakdown.
This week, you might notice that the QB piece is significantly longer than the other positional pieces. Part of that is because, with NBA starting this week, I simply don’t have time to make the other pieces quite as long. At the same time, those pieces are never as long anyway. That’s just how it is.
QB Pricing
After the early-season price hike — which I pointed out in last week’s QB Breakdown and several other pieces before that — QB salaries on FanDuel have started to normalize (per our Salary Change metric). DraftKings QB salaries (which were depressed earlier in the season) have also started to normalize.
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
Last week, 33.3 percent of the slate’s starting QBs had experienced salary decreases of at least $500 on DK over the last month. This week, only 25 percent of the QBs have experienced that one-month drop. Also, last week, 20 percent of starting QBs had seen one-month price declines of $500 on FD. This week, that number is 34.6 percent.
What all of this means is that, on a relative basis, the pendulum of trans-platform value is now starting to swing back in the other direction. In theory, it might now be harder to acquire QB Plus/Minus on DK and easier to acquire it on FD than it has previously been. Last week, 36.7 percent of DK QBs had Bargain Ratings higher than 80 percent. On FD, not one QB was in the top quintile. This week, only 19.2 percent of DK QBs break the 80 percent threshold. On FD, we finally have one QB with an 80 percent Bargain Rating.
I’m not saying that trans-platform arbitrage is now 100 percent possible on FD. I’m just saying that the enormous pricing disparity that ruled the QB position in the first half of the season is now merely a quaint pricing difference, not something that makes you scratch your head and say, “What the f*ck are DK and FD doing?”
The Big Seven
With the return of the Panthers we also get the return of The Big Seven . . . which just happens to be what I call my d — . . . never mind.
And, yes, I’ve used that joke before.
This week, the same seven guys have the highest QB salaries at DK and FD. They’re not ordered the same on both sites, but they collectively form a consensus top tier in terms of raw expectations:
• Tom Brady: $7,600 DK (QB1), $8,700 FD (QB2)
• Aaron Rodgers: $7,500 DK (QB2), $8,800 FD (QB1)
• Cam Newton: $7,400 DK (QB3), $8,300 FD (QB4)
• Matt Ryan: $7,000 DK (QB5), $8,500 FD (QB3)
• Russell Wilson: $7,200 DK (QB4), $8,200 FD (QB5)
• Drew Brees: $6,900 DK (QB6), $8,000 FD (QB6)
• Andrew Luck: $6,800 DK (QB7), $7,900 FD (QB7)
A couple of items to note:
- #Shootout Central: Four of these guys are playing against each other.
- They’re all within a very tight salary range ($800 DK and $900 FD): If you want to, you should easily be able to . . .
Let’s look at these jokers.
“Fear is the Path to the Dark Side: Fear Leads to Anger, Anger Leads to Hate, Hate Leads to Victories”
In Week 7, Tomth Brader finished as ‘merely’ a top-10 QB as the Patriots beat their opponent on the road by 11 points. What a disappointment he, his 222 yards and two touchdowns, and 18.2 fantasy points must’ve been to the hooded Sith Lord and all the DFS stormtroopers!
Through three games, he leads the league with a 75.2 percent completion rate, 7.9 percent TD rate, zero percent interception rate, and 9.9 yards per attempt (YPA). Just think about that. It almost certainly goes without saying that Brady’s still the QB1 with 27.00 DK and 25.00 FD PPG. Per our Trends tool:
Since Brady’s return, the Pats have had an average implied Vegas total of 27 points per game (PPG). With Brady, they’ve scored 31.7 PPG and are yet to score less than their implied total. Brady leads all starting QBs with a 90.4 Total QBR (per ESPN). With his ‘disappointing’ Week 7 performance, he actually improved upon the league-leading 89.0 he had last week.
So Brady has some factors in his favor.
What Brady doesn’t have in his favor is that this week the Pats are on the road against the Bills. On the positive side, the Pats are 6.5-point road favorites implied to score 27 points. On the negative side, the Bills allow the fifth- and third-fewest DK and FD PPG (13.9 and 13.2) to QBs. Only once this season have they allowed a QB to score at least 20 fantasy points, and ever since the offense changed its approach (following the dismissal of coordinator Greg Roman), the defense has held QBs to a -2.99 DK and -3.06 FD Opponent Plus/Minus.
And Brady doesn’t have a great history on the road against teams coached by Rex Ryan. Against the 2009-14 Jets and 2015 Bills, Brady averaged 22.39 fantasy points on the road. In all other situations, he averaged 24.56 points over that time frame. That’s not a huge disparity, but it suggests that Brady probably won’t be at his best this week.
Brady’s rating in our various Models is pretty universally #notgood, and he has ‘only’ the fifth- and fourth-highest DK and FD projections — and that’s not ideal for a guy priced as a top-two QB. He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of five to eight and nine to 12 percent on DK and FD.
“The Cheese is Old and Moldy; Where is the Bathroom?”
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, guest (and winner of the 2014 Week 15 Millionaire Maker) Drew Dinkmeyer gave a Week 8 bold take that was less of a slate-specific perspective and more of a definitive declaration:
Rodgers isn’t good anymore . . . he’s basically Joe Flacco. . . . Rodgers had a great career, but I think he’s kind of washed now. . . . I think he’s still going to be fine for fantasy and DFS purposes, ’cause they’re gonna throw the ball 50-60 times, but I just don’t think he’s a guy that’s gonna win you big playoff games anymore. I think he’s past that in his career.
Far be it from me to disagree with Dinkpiece.
I’m not quoting Die Hard and saying, “Oh my god, the quarterback is toast,” but A-Rod’s best days are likely behind him.
On the one hand, Rodgers is the QB8 with 21.58 DK and 20.58 FD PPG. On the other hand, he has the lowest Plus/Minus of any top-12 QB. Even with WR Jordy Nelson back on the field, Rodgers has basically been this year the guy he was last year. And that guy wasn’t all that good.
Through six games, Rodgers is averaging 249.3 passing YPG — the second-lowest mark of his career as a starter.
In the last 16 games, he has passed for 300 yards and three TDs just twice — Brady’s already done that twice this season — and he’s surpassed 30 fantasy points just once.
But of course there’s reason to be optimistic about Rodgers. It’s not great that the Packers are on the road as three-point underdogs implied to score ‘only’ 24.75 points — but they’re playing against the Falcons, who are allowing the second-most passing yards per game (YPG) and the fourth-most DK and FD PPG (22.6 and 21.5) to opposing QBs. Defensively, they are 24th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). They are 28th in the NFL with 33.95 yards allowed per drive. Per FantasyData, the Falcons’ 109 passing first downs allowed leads the league. Only two teams have allowed more TDs passing than their 15.
On top of that, the Packers are without their top running backs, and so they will likely once against use wide receiver-turned-receiving back Ty Montgomery out of the backfield. In Week 7, with Eddie Lacy and James Starks out, Rodgers threw 56 passes in a game the Packers won by 16 points. What do you think will happen if the Packers trail for a substantial portion of this game?
Last week, A-Rod was DK QB3 and FD QB4, and this week he has the second-highest QB projection in the slate. He definitely has upside. But we’re talking about a guy who is supposed to be one of the best QBs in the league and is priced as a top-two QB but hasn’t thrown for 400 yards in 30 consecutive games. It’s hard to invest in Rodgers at his price, despite the favorable matchup.
Fig Newton
The good news for Cam is that the Panthers are 1-5, coming off a bye week, and highly incentivized to let him be Superman so that he can save their season. It also helps that they’re three-point home favorites. The bad news is that the Panthers are implied to score ‘only’ 25.5 points, and they’re facing the Cardinals, who over the last 16 games have held QBs to -2.1 DK and -1.9 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values. Defensively, they are fourth in pass DVOA as well as fifth and fourth in the NFL with 27.62 yards allowed and 0.104 INTs forced per drive.
They are allowing only 14.3 DK and 13.7 FD PPG to opposing QBs.
Of course, Cam is not the typical opposing QB. He’s quarterbacking a team that is fifth in scoring, and in his four full games this year he’s been a top-three QB with 26.03 DK and 24.28 FD PPG.
Then again, earlier this season when Cam played the Broncos and Vikings — both of whom (like the Cardinals) defensively are top-four in pass DVOA — Cam wasn’t all that great:
Bottom line: It’s going to be really hard to trust Cam in cash games, but he’s an intriguing tournament play, especially on FD, where he has a slate-high 75 percent Bargain Rating and a chalky FantasyLabs ownership projection of 13 to 16 percent.
Sarah Marshall’s Husband
Ryan is the QB3 this season in PPG, and of the top-12 QBs he leads the group with a 71 percent Consistency rating:
If you’re going to roster Ryan this week, you probably want him on DK, where (despite his performance this year) he’s only $100 more expensive now than he was in Week 1 . . .
. . . whereas he’s now $900 more expensive on FD . . .
. . . and actually priced in accordance with his year-to-date production.
And Ryan is someone you should strongly consider rostering. The Falcons are three-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 27.8 points against the Packers in what could be a fast-paced shootout, as the Falcons (per FO) are third and the Packers are sixth in situation neutral rate of play.
Ryan has been on the ball at home this year (per RotoViz) . . .
. . . and the Packers defense, despite being 10th in pass DVOA, is slated to use cornerback Ladarius Gunter against star wide receiver Julio Jones for most of the game (per our Matchups tool). Gunter has an average Pro Football Focus coverage grade of 71.8, so he’s not horrendous — but he’s also not even a top-60 cover CB. Ryan and Julio have the potential to toy with that guy like 12th-grade jerks playing Keep Away with a sixth-grader.
There’s a lot more that could be said about the Falcons. They’re first in the NFL with 32.7 PPG, 3,035 total offensive yards, and 6.8 yards per play, and this season they’ve exceeded their implied Vegas totals by a league-high average of 9.0 PPG. Not since the season opener, when they fell short of their implied total by 0.5 points, have they failed to exceed their Vegas total.
Per Player Profiler, it’s not outrageous to say that Ryan is the 2016 NFL (and maybe DFS) MVP to date:
Per the FantasyLabs News feed, No. 2 RB Tevin Coleman is expected to be out this week and No. 1 RB Devonta Freeman is dealing with a hip injury and on Wednesday wore a non-contact jersey in practice. It’s possible that a Falcons team that is second and first in the NFL with 319 yards per game and 9.2 YPA will be throwing the ball more than usual in Week 8.
Ryan is the highest-rated QB in the Bales and Sports Geek Models on DK, where he has a chalky-ish FantasyLabs ownership projection of nine to 12 percent and a slate-high +7.42 Projected Plus/Minus.
To quote Britney Spears . . .
Also, that song was recorded a decade ago. That’s what the Greeks call ‘perspective.’
OK, I’ll Give You More
Back in the day it was “Cliff’s Notes.” And then it was “Cliffs Notes.” And to the kids who couldn’t read it was “Cliff Notes” or “CliffNotes.” Anyway, now it’s officially “CliffsNotes.” Just FYI.
Here’s the CliffsNotes version of why you might want to roster Wilson this week:
- He’s playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football.
- He’s the highest-rated QB in the Levitan Model for FD, where he’s tied for the slate’s third-highest Bargain Rating (69 percent).
Seriously, if you want to skip the rest, feel free. I’m giving you permission . . .
OK, if you’re still here, let’s talk. First of all, the Seahawks are 2.5-point favorites implied to score 25.25 points on the road against the Saints. You might think that Russell is disadvantaged in playing on the road, but throughout his career he’s actually had reverse home/road splits:
Plus, he’s playing against the Saints.
INSERT HERE STANDARD BLURB ABOUT THE SAINTS . . .
You probably already know this, but last year the Saints defense allowed an NFL-record 45 TDs passing and was dead last in DVOA. This year, the defense is 28th in pass DVOA. They’re allowing 22.10 DK and 20.00 FD PPG to QBs — and at home they’re allowing 25.43 DK and 23.43 FD PPG on 100 percent Consistency. Teams are scoring against them on 46.3 percent of their drives (the league’s second-highest mark), and defensively the Saints are 30th, 32nd, and 31st with 39.23 yards, 2.70 points, and 0.031 INTS per drive.
Over the last 16 games, they’ve allowed slate-high +8.8 DK and +6.9 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to QBs, as well as a 57.09 percent success rate on pass attempts and a 27.88 percent TD rate in the red zone, which are the highest and second-highest marks in the slate. In every game this year, they’ve allowed either 300 yards or multiple TDs passing.
They’re last in the NFL with 32.5 PPG allowed. They suck. From now, I’m calling them “The ‘Ain’ts.”
Of course, Ciara’s husband has also sucked this season:
Out of QBs who have started at least three games — so out of guys who basically aren’t Jay Cutler — Wilson has the worst Plus/Minus in the NFL. He’s literally been the worst daily fantasy sports asset at the QB position this season.
But it’s not as if Wilson is a bad player. He’s simply had to deal with injuries all season. In Week 1, he suffered a high-ankle sprain. In Week 3, he sprained his MCL. Now, he reportedly has a pectoral injury.
At some point, Wilson will probably be healthy and lucky enough to have a game that makes him look like the second-half post-bye stud from last season:
Starting Wilson in cash is riskier than [insert here an inappropriate one-liner], but he should be considered in tournaments. He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 percent.
There’s No Place Like Home — Depending on Who Your Guest Is
Per usual, Brees is playing that sweet jazz music at home this season: In 2016, he’s yet to throw fewer than 375 yards and three TDs at the Superdome. On the season, Brees is the QB2 with 26.50 DK and 24.33 FD PPG across six games — and at home . . .
. . . he’s finished as the QB2, QB4 DK/QB3 FD, and QB1 in PPG.
Where was I?
Oh, yes, Brees at home: #ChalkLock — if not for . . .
As Mama Lynn would say, “Lord Almighty, me, oh my.”
This will be a contest of contrasts: Brees is one of the best home QBs in the NFL, and since at least 2014 the Seahawks have allowed the lowest Opponent Plus/Minus values to QBs:
Ironically, the Seahawks defense actually has reverse home/road splits in terms of the production it allows to QBs: As a cohort, they have historically done worse against the Legion of Boom at home than in Seattle.
Additionally, the Saints are fifth in the NFL in situation neutral pace, and the Seahawks are 31st. That contrasting fact could be the one that kills Brees’ DFS upside. If he’s playing a shutdown defense — which the Seahawks are, ranking first, fourth, and fifth overall, against the run, and versus the pass in DVOA — then Brees at least will need to get some extra possessions to accumulate points. In terms of pace, the Seahawks offense isn’t going to help him out.
The Saints are 2.5-point underdogs implied to score only 22.75 points. It’s true that, since Wilson took over the offense in 2012, the Seahawks on the road have held opponents to an unholy total . . .
. . . but the Saints this season have outscored their implied point totals at home by 8.3 PPG. Not since Week 2 of last season have the ‘Aint’s been held to fewer than 23 points at home. Of course, only once this season have the Seahawks allowed a team to score more than 23 points: The Falcons scored 24 points (in Seattle) in Week 6, as Ryan had 335 yards, three TDs, and 26.60 DK and 22.60 FD points.
If you’re a ‘glass half full’ person, you can see that Ryan went 335-3 against the Seahawks just two weeks ago and think, “Brees can do that.” If you’re a ‘glass half empty’ person, you’ll notice that Ryan is the 2016 outlier.
If you’re a realist, you’ll remember that only four times since 2012 — only four times in the last 54 games — have the Seahawks allowed a QB to throw at least three TDs. Only nine times since 2012 have QBs thrown for at least 300 yards against them. And only twice have QBs attempted more than 50 passes against them in that span.
Brees deserves consideration, but you absolutely cannot play him in cash games — he has the same floor as another QB whose name rhymes with “Sh*tzMagic” — and, based on Seattle’s history against QBs, Brees seems highly unlikely to do well enough to help DFS players significantly in GPPs.
Brees has FantasyLabs projected ownership ranges of five to eight and two to four percent on DK and FD — and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year. If you wanted to be underweight on him, I wouldn’t blame you. The Seahawks are allowing teams to score only 14 PPG — the lowest mark in the league.
There’s No Such Thing as Luck
It’s not that Luck sucks — he’s QB4 and QB5 with 23.99 DK and 21.99 FD PPG — but he’s kind of boring in this slate and doesn’t have a great matchup. The Colts are 2.5-point underdogs implied to score 23.75 points. They’re at home, and Luck has done moderately better at home than on the road in his career . . .
. . . but the Colts are facing the Chiefs, who defensively are ninth in pass DVOA and over the last 16 games have held QBs to -2.2 DK and -2.0 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values.
At the same time, Luck is priced as the QB7, available at a discount to his 2016 production, and Andrew F*cking Luck. Plus, against other top-six fantasy QBs (Brees and Ben Roethlisberger), the Chiefs have been exposed this season:
Luck was the QB1 last week with his 353-3 divisional smackdown of the Titans, and it’s possible that performance could result in recency bias and inflated ownership — he has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 percent — but he nevertheless deserves consideration.
It doesn’t hurt that explosive WR Donte Moncrief (shoulder) expects to play for the first time since suffering his injury in Week 2.
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way.
Carson Palmer ($6,000 DK, $7,300 FD): His upside this season has been capped by stud RB David Johnson, but the Cardinals are facing the Panthers, whose funnel defense is 27th in pass DVOA and allowing 22.65 DK and 21.65 FD points and +6.33 DK and +6.53 FD Plus/Minus values to QBs.
Philip Rivers ($6,100 DK, $7,300 FD): Two weeks ago, Rivers had his worst performance of the year against the Broncos, scoring 11.10 fantasy points on 178 yards and one TD passing. That was in San Diego. This week, he’s facing them in Denver. QBs typically underperform against divisional rivals.
Brock Osweiler ($5,400 DK, $6,600 FD): On the season, Focking Bruck has 12.76 DK and 12.61 FD PPG. At home, however, where he hasn’t had to face the Broncos, Vikings, and Pats, Osweiler has been . . . I don’t know . . . not horrible? He has 16.25 fantasy PPG with a 75 percent Consistency rating in Houston. And this week the Texans are 2.5-point favorites implied to score 23.75 points against the Lions, who are allowing league-high marks of 26.09 DK and 24.23 FD PPG to starting QBs with 100 percent Consistency. Osweiler is yet to score 18 fantasy points in a game this season . . . but I guess he deserves consideration.
Josh McCown ($5,200 DK, $6,400 FD): He’s going to start this weekend’s home game against the Jets, who defensively are 31st against the pass and third against the run in DVOA.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,200 DK, $7,300 FD): The Browns are first, second, and third in passing TDs, fantasy points, and passing yards allowed to QBs. They’re allowing the third-most ‘real’ PPG and the most fantasy PPG to opposing teams. The Browns are one of only two teams to allow QBs to reach their salary-based expectations in every game this season.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,200 DK, $7,600 FD): TyGod continues to be criminally undervalued on DK, where he has a slate-high 99 percent Bargain Rating and 19.02 points with a 100 percent Consistency rating since the departure of former offensive coordinator Greg Roman. In his three starts against the Patriots, Taylor’s basically been himself.
As I’ve said for weeks: “If you are looking for a cheap DK QB who won’t sabotage your lineup in cash games, Tyrod could be the guy.”
Derek Carr ($5,900 DK, $7,800 FD): Like Tyrod, Carr is undervalued on DK, where has a 92 percent Bargain Rating and a slate-high six Pro Trends. He’s the DK QB10 with 19.61 PPG. This week, he’s priced at QB16 and facing a Buccaneers defense that is 17th in pass DVOA.
Andy Dalton ($6,200 DK, $7,700 FD): He’s QB11 in PPG, A.J. Green is a top-three fantasy WR (even when he’s facing CB Josh Norman), and WR Brandon LaFell should be able to beat CB Bashaud Breeland, who has a PFF rank of 111 (out of 116). Also, #LondonGameFavorite, if you care about that sort of thing.
The Super Models
I’ve already mentioned a couple of guys who are at the top of some of our Pro Models. Here are a couple more:
• Jameis Winston: $5,700 DK, $7,400 FD
• Alex Smith: $5,800 DK, $6,800 FD
Let’s . . . whatever . . .
Shameis
My second Labyrinthian was about what to do in DFS with players you dislike. My sense is that Winston, now in his second season, is well on his way to becoming a version of Roethlisberger. Most people probably still remember that Winston was, uh, ‘immature’ at Florida State, just as we remember Roethlisberger’s legal issues. But most people probably no longer care (if they ever did).
And that’s not surprising. If he sucked, he’d probably be a pariah like Johnny Manziel, but Winston doesn’t suck. The guy can throw the football, and he has one of the best WRs in the league in Mike Evans to target at a league-high rate. And this week, the Buccaneers are one-point home favorites implied to score 25 points against the Raiders, who are allowing the most passing YPG to QBs.
Winston has chalky FantasyLabs ownership projections of 17 to 20 and 13 to 16 percent on DK and FD, and he’s the highest-rated DK QB in the CSURAM88 and Levitan Models. If Winston is the kind of guy you’d roster anyway, this is a week to roster him.
Not Again
The Savior is the No. 1 FD QB in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models.
Let’s get this over with.
Smith has not been productive this year. He’s averaging 1.17 TDs passing and 3.14 yards rushing per game. If the statue-esque Brady were forced to throw left-handed, he could probably do better than that.
The Chiefs have a good matchup in that they are playing against the Colts, who defensively are 29th in pass DVOA. But Smith isn’t really the type of guy to capitalize on a good opportunity very often. In his last two games, he’s faced the Raiders and Saints, both of whom hemorrhage fantasy points to the QB position. He’s completed an amazing 78.26 percent of his passes in that time frame. That’s great! — but he averaged only 219 yards and one TD passing in those games. And let’s not forget the three rushing YPG!
As I said last week of the Utahn water walker: “No one is better at making nothing out of something.” I don’t think that even Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek like Kansas City Jesus as much as their Models indicate.
In five of six games this year, Smith has finished with fewer than 20 fantasy points. If you want him to polish your shoes, go for it. Just don’t be surprised if that Shinola turns out to be sh*t.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 8 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s QBs for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
