The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 7: Wide Receivers
You know the drill. As I pointed out in the WR Breakdown last week — and have pointed out for several weeks now — our Bargain Rating metric indicates that DraftKings WRs are more expensive than Jon Bon Jovi’s haircut and FanDuel WRs are cheaper than VHS pornos . . . which might’ve belonged to Bon Jovi back in the day. Can you prove that they didn’t?
. . . What? . . . OK, I admit it. I recycled last week’s introduction. I don’t think enough of you really appreciated it the first time. Moving on . . .
On DK, the average Bargain Rating of the five WRs with the highest salaries is literally 1.2 percent. Two of those five guys have zero percent Bargain Ratings. It’s not till we get to $4,900 that we see a DK WR with a Bargain Rating higher than 30 percent.
On FD, four of the five guys with the highest salaries have Bargain Ratings of at least 97 percent. Not till $6,600 do we see a FD WR with a Bargain Rating lower than 70 percent.
If you look at the pricing for all DK players, you’ll notice that nine of the 12-highest salaries in the slate belong to WRs. DK is really valuing its point-per-reception scoring. On FD, only four of the 12-highest salaries belong to WRs.
If you’re paying up for a DK WR, just be aware that you’re really paying up, at least from a historical perspective.
By the way, be sure to check out this week’s WR Model Preview by Peter Jennings (CSURAM88).
The Big Four
This week, the same four guys have the highest DK and FD WR salaries.
• Antonio Brown: $9,300 DK (WR1), $9,000 FD (WR2)
• Julio Jones: $9,200 DK (WR2), $9,200 FD (WR1)
• Odell Beckham: $8,900 DK (WR3), $8,600 FD (WR3)
• A.J. Green: $8,600 DK (WR4), $8,500 FD (WR4)
To quote T-Rex: “Get it on / Bang a gong / Get it on.”
Bartleby, the Scrivener
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (knee) is out for Week 7. Ouch.
Antonio without Ben is sort of like faith without works . . . or some other analogy that references something that some guy said thousands of years ago.
Since 2011, when Brown became Ben’s most-targeted receiver, Antonio has suffered mightily when Roethlisberger has missed time. Per RotoViz:
The six-game Ben-less sample is small, but it’s sufficient to eliminate Antonio from consideration in cash games. Fewer targets, fewer receptions, fewer yards, no touchdowns: No, thank you.
But . . . if you’re a practitioner of contrarianism, then Brown should be in consideration for guaranteed prize pools. He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of two to four percent (available in our Player Models), and he’s still Antonio — the guy who over the last three years has been a Hall-of-Fame producer and currently leads the league with five TDs receiving.
The Steelers are seven-point home underdogs with an implied Vegas total of only 20 points. They’re hosting the Patriots, who might seem like an imposing matchup but really aren’t. Defensively, they’re 25th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Per our Matchups tool, Brown is expected to run most of his routes against cornerback Logan Ryan, who ranks as Pro Football Focus’ 45th-best coverage CB. As John Proctor points out in this week’s WR/CB Matchups piece, Antonio’s matchup with Ryan represents an upgrade (when his QB situation isn’t taken into account).
As much praise as Patriots head coach Bill Belichick routinely gets for creating schemes to neutralize the playmakers on opposing teams, the Pats haven’t been all that great this year at minimizing the impact of No. 1 WRs. Per our Trends tool:
Those numbers aren’t exceptional, but they’re good enough. If non-Antonio No. 1 WRs can do that against the Pats, it’s possible that Antonio could do more, even without Roethlisberger.
It’s not likely, but it’s possible.
GOAT
Not much actually needs to be said about Julio:
He leads the league with 109.3 receiving yards per game (YPG) and this season has experienced some positive reversion to the mean in his TD production. After averaging on the road 84 receiving YPG against the Denver and Seattle secondaries the past two weeks, Julio is now the clear GOAT WR1. He has slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of 31 to 40 percent — and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
On the one hand, it’s ridiculous for a guy to be rostered that heavily when he has a top-two salary — not just for his position but for all positions. On the other hand, can you really say that Julio doesn’t deserve that ownership? As Peter mentioned on this week’s NFL Fantasy Flex pod, Julio looks like an assassin — and Pete’s not just talking about the moustache.
By the way, as long as I’m Editor-in-Chief of this site, the spelling of that word will be “moustache,” not the Americanized “mustache.” That’s both a threat and a promise.
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Julio over the last month has accounted for 27.21 percent of the Falcons’ targets and 44.20 percent of their Air Yards, a metric created by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer. When the ball goes to Julio, he’s getting it downfield.
This season, the Falcons have exceeded their implied Vegas totals by a league-high average of 10.5 PPG and are now 6.5-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 29.75 points against the Chargers, who are now without lockdown CB Jason Verrett.
Yes, yes, yes.
London Calling
We told you not to worry about OBJ. Last year through five games, he had 52 targets. This year, he had 51. We were bound to see OBJ get his production at some point, and it happened last week.
And now his 2016 numbers through six weeks . . .
. . . look very similar to last year’s numbers through six weeks:
Will OBJ do this year what he did last year in his final nine games?
It’s possible, especially with the London game on his schedule, as that event has historically given some serious juice to the No. 1 WRs on the favored teams:
London calling.
The Battle for Ohio
A.J. Green leads the NFL with 42 receptions, and he’s averaging 101.0 receiving YPG. On the season, he’s a top-six WR with 20.10 DK and 15.60 FD points. Over the last month, Green leads the Bengals with 31.78 and 40.70 percent of the team’s targets and Air Yards.
The Bengals are slate-high 10.5-point home favorites implied to score 28 points against the Browns, who defensively rank 30th in pass DVOA and reportedly could be without top CB Joe Haden (groin).
Green is a top-four WR this week in DK and FD Pro Trends, and he has FantasyLabs ownership projections of 26 to 30 percent. He’s currently the highest-rated FD WR in the Levitan and Sports Geek Models.
Fly Patterns
Nine route, go.
Amari Cooper ($7,900 DK, $7,900 FD): Cooper is fourth in the NFL with 97.5 receiving YPG, and he’s getting regular opportunity with 10 targets per game. The Raiders are 1.5-point road favorites implied to score 22.75 points against the Jaguars. Per our Matchups tool, Cooper is expected to be matched up with rookie CB Jalen Ramsey for most of the game. Ramsey has a PFF coverage grade of 70.8, which is good for a rookie . . . but that’s not saying much. Cooper has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 and 17 to 20 percent on DK and FD.
Mike Evans ($7,800 DK, $8,000 FD): Evans leads the league with 12.4 targets per game, and he could possibly see even more targets now that Vincent Jackson (ACL) has been placed on the Injured Reserve. Evans is eighth in the NFL with 89.8 receiving YPG, and he has four TDs across five contests. The Buccaneers are one-point road favorites implied to score 23.75 points against the 49ers, who have allowed 10 TDs to WRs this year. Evans has FantasyLabs ownership projections of 26 to 30 percent.
Tyrell Williams ($4,400 DK, $6,100 FD): Dating back to last season, Williams is averaging six targets over the last seven games, good for 68 receiving YPG and three total TDs. He’s expected to run most of his routes against CB Desmond Trufant, PFF’s 27th-rated cover man, but with WR Travis Benjamin now expected to play, Williams might have more opportunity to run routes against other members of the Falcons defense, which is ranked 23rd in DVOA. Participating in the game with the highest Over/Under of the slate, Williams has FantasyLabs ownership projections of 17 to 20 and 21 to 25 percent on DK and FD.
Chris Hogan ($4,800 DK, $5,500 FD): In two games with QB Tom Brady, Hogan has six targets, five receptions, and 153 yards, as well as one rush for two yards. He’s a big-play machine. Over the last month, he’s seen only 9.02 percent of the Patriots’ targets, but he has 29.30 percent of the team’s Air Yards. He makes for an excellent receiver in a Pats GPP stack.
Julian Edelman ($6,500 DK, $6,900 FD): He’s been targeted 17 times in two games with Brady as the starter. The Steelers are 21st in pass DVOA. At some point, the production will come.
Marvin Jones Jr. ($7,000 DK, $7,700 FD): Over the last four games, Jones has seen 19.85 percent of the targets and 35.21 percent of the Air Yards. Plus, he’s #LionsLeverage.
Jordy Nelson ($7,800 DK, $8,200 FD): The Packers will likely throw more this week, as they are without any established RBs, and Jordy is averaging 9.4 targets and five receptions per game. Over the last four games, he leads the team with 43.45 percent of the Air Yards.
Ty Montgomery ($3,000 DK, $5,600 FD): In his junior year at Stanford, Montgomery was a consensus All-American as an all-purpose player, with 958 yards and 10 TDs as a receiver, 159 yards and two TDs as a rusher, and two TDs as a return man. Last year, the Packers drafted Montgomery with a top-100 pick when they didn’t need any more WRs. Last week, Montgomery played primarily in the backfield and saw 12 targets and three rush attempts. Per the FantasyLabs News feed, there’s a report that Montgomery is expected to see the majority of RB reps this week. I’d believe it.
Cameron Meredith ($4,700 DK, $5,900 FD): He’s been a starter for only two games, but in those games . . .
. . . he’s been a top-three WR in PPG. He has an unreal 27 targets and 20 receptions for 243 yards and a TD in that span. And this week, he’s slated to run most of his routes against CB Damarious Randall, PFF’s 111th-ranked cover man (out of 114).
Alshon Jeffery ($6,900 DK, $7,300 FD): Actually, the Packers are expected to be without their three starting CBs this week . . .
T.Y. Hilton ($7,700 DK, $7,800 FD): Hilton is averaging 10.67 targets per game and is pacing for his typical 1,483-yard, eight-TD season. At some point in this game — at least once — Hilton is going to be matched up with Cox, Perrish . . .
Allen Robinson ($7,300 DK, $8,400 FD): The Jaguars are 1.5-point home favorites implied to score 24.25 points against the Raiders, who defensively are 28th in pass DVOA and allowing 45.4 DK and 35.2 FD PPG to WRs.
The Super Models
I said this last week, but I need to say it again this week: Here’s a word about our Pro Models. They’re all different. Four of the members of Team FantasyLabs — FantasyLabs co-founders Jonathan Bales and CSURAM88, as well as Adam Levitan and Kevin McClelland (The Sports Geek) — have created separate Pro Models, each of which emphasizes different factors and weights them accordingly. There are some similarities across the board, but each of the Pro Models is unique because the four creators of the Models all evaluate players and theorize daily fantasy sports in different ways.
But sometimes there are players or situations that really stand out, and they are highlighted by multiple Models at once. That’s what we see this week.
• Anquan Boldin: $4,000 DK, $5,900 FD
• Golden Tate: $4,900 DK, $6,600 FD
• Jeremy Maclin: $6,700 DK, $6,800 FD
Let’s do it.
Lions WRs vs. the Redskins
Jones is the clear No. 1 WR in Detroit, with team-high marks in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs. But the other guys — Boldin and Tate — play significant roles. Boldin has as many receptions on the season as Jones has, and he also has 0.5 TDs per game. And Tate in any given week is capable of serving as the de facto No. 1 WR: Last week, he exploded for an 8-165-1 stat line on 10 targets as Jones quietly had a 2-10-1 performance on six targets.
This week especially, Boldin and Tate are likely to have a chance to star, as the Lions are one-point home favorites implied to score 25.5 points against the Redskins, who are 32nd in pass DVOA against WR2s.
Against competent non-WR1s (Cole Beasley, Mike Wallace, Sammie Coates, and Sterling Shepard), the Redskins haven’t been good:
Jones will probably have a big game — he’s slated to run most of his routes against CB Bashaud Breeland, PFF’s 106th-ranked cover man — but Boldin and Tate could have big games as well.
Boldin is the highest-rated DK WR in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models. Tate is the highest-rated DK WR in the Levitan Model.
“Against the Saints”
INSERT HERE STANDARD BLURB ABOUT THE SAINTS . . .
This week, the Chiefs are six-point home favorites implied to score 28 points against the Saints.
You probably already know this, but last year the Saints defense allowed an NFL-record 45 TDs passing and was dead last in DVOA. This year, the defense is 26th in pass DVOA with 314 passing yards allowed per game. They’re allowing 43.80 DK and 33.70 FD PPG to WRs. Teams are scoring against them on 46.6 percent of their drives (the league’s third-highest mark), and defensively the Saints are 30th, 31st, and 28th with 38.80 yards, 2.73 points, and 0.036 interceptions per drive. In every game this year, they’ve allowed either 300 yards or multiple TDs passing.
Maclin has had a down year so far, but he’s pacing for 120 targets. Last year, when he had an 87-1,088-8 stat line, he had 124 targets.
Someone has to catch the ball for the Chiefs (in theory). Maclin’s positive reversion to the mean could start this game. He’s the highest-rated FD WR in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 7 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s WRs for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
