The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 7 Tight Ends
I never thought that I’d say this, but this slate really misses Greg Olsen.
To Gronk or Not to Gronk
As we must in every TE Breakdown, we start by analyzing Gronk.
Let’s see . . .
Alright, well, glad we took the time to do that. In his two games this season with QB Tom Brady, Gronk has averaged 135.5 yards per game (YPG). He’s had 12 receptions total and a touchdown on 16 targets. In Week 5, he played 81 percent of the offensive snaps. Last week, 89 percent.
Gronk is back.
I could give you all the Vegas data and make a case as to why this particular game is a good one to play Gronk, but it doesn’t really matter — because Gronk is back.
In our Player Models, Gronk has slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 and 17 to 20 percent on DK and FD. When pieces of chalk talk about sports, they describe a chalky play as “Gronky.”
If you’re the type of person who pays $7,200 on DK or $8,500 on FD for a TE, then go for it. If not . . .
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, I’m throwing the ball.
Zach Miller ($3,800 DK, $5,500 FD): The fantasy points look about the same, but he’s getting way more targets without Kevin White than he got with him. Per RotoViz:
The devil is in the details. Actually, if there is a Devil, (s)he is probably everywhere.
C.J. Uzomah ($2,500 DK, $4,800 FD): He’s averaging 4.8 targets per game, and he’s going against a Browns defense that is allowing the most receptions, yards, and fantasy points to TEs and is 30th against the position in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). He might finally score his first NFL TD, unless . . .
Tyler Eifert ($4,400 DK, $6,000 FD): Per the FantasyLabs News feed, Eifert has practiced on consecutive days this week and looks to be on track to make his 2016 debut against the Browns. Ye, Gawds of Fantasy, Let . . . It . . . Be.
On this week’s NFL Fantasy Flex pod, Adam Levitan talks about how the Bengals might use Eifert if he’s active. A few other TE #HotTaeks are made.
Jesse James ($3,100 DK, $5,400 FD): The Pats are 27th in pass DVOA vs. TEs. James makes a great contrarian stack with QB Landry Jones, slot wide receiver Eli Rogers, and kicker Chris Boswell.
Bales, I’m joking.
Gary Barnidge ($3,200 DK, $5,200 FD): Barnidge has done (relatively) well since QB Cody Kessler became the starter:
He still hasn’t scored any TDs, but those will eventually come. In the meantime, enjoy a guy who has 100 percent Consistency and no hype:
It’s also nice that Barnidge gets to face a Bengals defense that is 28th in pass DVOA against TEs. And it doesn’t hurt that No. 1 WR Terrelle Pryor is questionable for Week 7 and will likely be limited if he does play.
Jimmy Graham ($5,800 DK, $6,700 FD): Like Gronk, Graham is back. Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Graham leads the Seahawks over the last four games with 22.56 percent of the team’s targets and 29.15 percent of the Air Yards. Graham’s the No. 1 receiver on his offense.
If we discount Graham’s Week 1 warm-up game in which he played only 21 percent of the offensive snaps and saw just one target, then we have a Graham who is averaging 7.5 targets for 86 yards per game (YPG). That’s pretty tasty.
What’s not tasty is that Graham is averaging only 0.25 TDs per game and this week is playing against the Cardinals, who defensively are first in pass DVOA against TEs, presumably because of rockstar safety Tyrann Mathieu.
Graham’s tough matchup and lack of scoring don’t necessarily mean that you must fade him, because it’s hard to fade this . . .
. . . but Graham (unfortunately) carries more risk this week than he has previously because of his TE2 salary.
Graham (knee, hip) missed Thursday’s practice but wasn’t on the final injury report and is fully expected to play this week.
Vernon Davis ($2,900 DK, $4,500 FD): Davis is expected to start in Reed’s place once again this week. Last week, he turned four targets into a 2-50-1 stat line. This week, he gets to face a Lions defense that has allowed literally 19 TDs to TEs over the last 22 games. Davis is the highest-rated FD TE in the Bales and Sports Geek Models.
Delanie Walker ($4,900 DK, $6,500 FD): He leads the Titans in targets and TDs and this week faces a Colts defense that is dead last in pass DVOA against TEs and over the last 16 games has allowed the slate’s second-highest DK and FD Plus/Minus values to the position.
That might be the most grammatically perfect run-on sentence ever.
Walker is the highest-rated FD TE in the CSURAM88 Model.
Travis Kelce ($5,300 DK, $6,300 FD): Last year, the Saints allowed the most fantasy points to TEs, and in their last two games, they’ve allowed TEs to put up a collective 13 receptions for 178 yards and two TDs. The Saints are 25th in pass DVOA against TEs.
Kelce is Levitan’s highest-rated FD TE.
Antonio Gates ($2,900 DK, $5,500 FD): Gates ‘Made the Four.’ With his ancient skillz and 99 percent DK Bargain Rating, Gates is the highest-rated DK TE in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models.
How is that possible?
He’s facing the Falcons, who defensively are 22nd in pass DVOA against TEs and allowing them to score the second- and third-most DK and FD PPG in the NFL. The Falcons have allowed five TDs in six games to TEs. One of them was caught by Brandon Myers, who doesn’t even sound like a real person.
At the same time . . .
Hunter Henry ($3,600 DK, $5,800 FD): If you prefer the guy who’s actually been the best TE on the team over the last month . . .
. . . you wouldn’t get any argument from me.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 7 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s TEs for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
