The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
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Week 7: Running Backs
I don’t even know why I start researching for this piece on Monday. It’s as if half of the RBs who are semi-healthy starters early in the week are dead by Thursday morning.
I joke about it almost every week, but what the f*ck’s happening to the Lions RBs? Next week, Barry Sanders might be the starter in Detroit. The situation is that serious. Let’s look at it for a moment:
• Week 1: Ameer Abdullah (17 touches), Theo Riddick (12 touches), Dwayne Washington (two touches)
• Week 2: Riddick (15 touches), Abdullah (six touches, injured), Washington (four touches)
• Week 3: Riddick (17 touches), Washington (11 touches)
• Week 4: Riddick (15 touches), Zach Zenner (four touches), Washington (three touches, injured)
• Week 5: Riddick (17 touches, injured), Zenner (nine touches)
• Week 6: Zenner (16 touches), Justin Forsett (five touches, deceased)
Within the span of six weeks, the Lions went from three guys who all scored TDs in the season opener to two guys who (for different reasons) are fringe NFL players.
When we say that opportunity is everything for RBs, this landscape of carnage is the context in which that statement is made. Talent matters, but because of the unreal attrition at the position, at some point the most important factor is not whether a guy is good but whether he is the most capable man available on game day.
A Quick Reminder on Pricing
As I highlighted in the RB Breakdown last week and several weeks before that, DraftKings RBs are expensive. FanDuel RBs, cheap. The present disparity in pricing is not as great as it has been, but it’s still something to arbitrage where possible.
Of the DK RBs with the 20 highest salaries, not one has a Bargain Rating in the top quartile. Among the four RBs with the highest salaries, not one has a Bargain Rating in the top half.
Perhaps unsurprisingly — especially since this has been the case for weeks — the DK RBs most readily available at a discount are the big grinders who don’t catch passes. Given DK’s point-per-reception (PPR) scoring, these big-bodied bruisers have been priced down perhaps too far. I’m not saying that you must roster them. I’m just saying that if you’re looking for value, you might be able to find it in the big guys who are outside of the top 20 in DK salaries.
On FD, the value is much easier to find. All four RBs with the highest salaries have Bargain Ratings in the top quartile. Among the RBs with top-12 salaries at the position, only one has a Bargain Rating in the bottom quartile. If you look at the FD Player Models, you’re basically swimming in green.
If you play on both DK and FD, be sure to get your exposure to RBs on the platforms that offer the most value (and thus margin of error) for each player.
The (Sort of) Big Four
This week’s Big Four (in terms of pricing) is a pretty obvious bunch. It’s the four RBs in the slate who have the most fantasy points per game (PPG). To this point in the season, they have formed a stout cohort (per our Trends tool):
But this week, these stud RBs look less studly than usual:
• LeSean McCoy: $7,600 DK (RB2), $9,000 FD (RB1)
• Le’Veon Bell: $8,000 DK (RB1), $8,600 FD (RB3)
• DeMarco Murray: $7,200 DK (RB4), $8,700 FD (RB2)
• David Johnson: $7,400 DK (RB3), $8,500 FD (RB4)
A few things about these guys:
- They are available within a fairly tight salary range. If you decide to pivot away from one RB and toward the RB priced immediately above him, you never need to spend more than $400. In some cases, $100 or $200 will cover the difference.
- They are separated from the next tier of RBs by a significant monetary buffer. Paying up from RB5 to RB4 on DK and FD is more expensive than paying up by one spot within the Top Four. They truly are their own tier.
- They are all three-down workhorses with strong pass-catching skills. There aren’t many guys like them in the NFL.
Let’s break ’em down.
The Real McCoy?
I love LeSean. This season, he’s been LeSh*t, which I believe is bad French for “The Sh*t.” I don’t know. I didn’t take French in college, because . . .
- ‘Murica.
- I thought that Latin was more practical.
Anyway, Shady’s been great this year:
He’s the RB2 in DK and FD PPG, averaging 114 scrimmage yards per game (YPG), as well as 3.5 receptions and 1.16 touchdowns. He’s five years older, but he’s producing like the 23-year-old McCoy who led the NFL in TDs as an All-Pro in 2011. And, as I’m writing this, he’s the highest-rated FD RB in the Sports Geek Model.
But . . . per the FantasyLabs News feed . . . McCoy is reportedly dealing with a mild to moderate hamstring strain that he suffered in practice on Wednesday. His officially questionable for Week 7.
If McCoy is active, it’s likely that he will be limited, with backup Mike Gillislee ($3,000 DK, $5,300 FD) seeing more action. That possibility makes McCoy a risky play, especially at his price. If McCoy is inactive, then Gillislee is likely to get the start, in which case he would be a very intriguing option. Per RotoViz:
In his 10 games as a backup in Buffalo, Gillislee has been beyond solid, averaging 8.88 yards per carry (YPC), catching 90 percent of his targets, averaging 41.1 scrimmage YPG, and scoring 0.6 TDs per contest. That’s Michael Turner-backing up-LaDainian Tomlinson type of production.
And that one horrid game last year as a lead back? — when he turned 24 rush attempts into 28 disgusting yards? That was in Week 17, when the Bills were already eliminated from the playoffs and facing the Jets, whose defense in 2015 was ranked first against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Almost nothing about that one performance is representative.
This week, the Bills are three-point favorites with an implied Vegas total of 23.25 points. They’re on the road against the Dolphins, whose defense is 24th in rush DVOA and allowing the sixth-most rushing YPG (109).
McCoy hasn’t seen fewer than 20 opportunities in any game this season. If McCoy is out, it’s possible that Gillislee could see more than 20 opportunities because of the lack of depth behind him. But let’s say that he’ll get no less than 80 percent of McCoy’s opportunities. The Dolphins this year have been fairly generous with RBs who have seen a minimum of 16 opportunities against them:
That production isn’t outstanding, but it’s pretty good, especially for a guy with a minimum salary on DK, where he has a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Under the assumption that he will see significant opportunities this week, Gillislee currently has chalky FantasyLabs ownership projections of 31 to 40 and 21 to 25 percent on DK and FD.
He’s not McCoy — but that’s probably why you’ll roster him.
His Le’Veownership Will Be Low
With Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger out for Week 7, Le’Veon seems like an extremely risky play in cash games. And he most likely is. You might think that Bell will get more touches without Roethlisberger, and history suggests that you would be right . . .
. . . and you’d even be justified in pointing out that Bell has been almost as productive without Ben as with him — but that perspective ignores the risk. You can’t afford to roster the captain of a sinking ship in cash games. Even though Le’Veon has managed to stay afloat for four Ben-less games, the fact is that the Steelers have drowned without Ben running the offense coordinated by Todd Haley:
In the words of John Donne, “No man is an island.” If that steel vessel sinks, Bell could easily go down with the ship.
Le’Veon is likely to get a lot of opportunity. It’s even probable that he’ll have a good game. But you never want to hope for a good game when you’re paying a top-three positional salary, and hope is basically all you have when you pay up for a guy whose team is implied to score only 19.25 points.
Having said that . . . I think that you strongly need to consider Bell in guaranteed prize pools. This week, he embodies contrarianism. He’s risky, but that’s fine for GPPs, and — as we’ve already seen — it’s possible for Bell to have success without Ben.
Right now, Bell has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 and five to eight percent on DK and FD. And, by the way, our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this season. So here’s the question: When else are you going to be able to get this guy . . .
. . . at drastically reduced ownership?
The Steelers are seven-point home underdogs to the Patriots, whose defense is seventh in rush DVOA, so there’s reason to be pessimistic about Bell. At the same time, there’s reason for optimism. In Week 5 against the Jets defense (which is currently fifth in rush DVOA), Le’Veon had team-high marks with 11 targets and nine receptions (to go along with his 20 carries). It’s possible that, against the Pats, the guy who is averaging eight targets per game could be heavily employed as a receiver.
Additionally, it’s possible that, even without Roethlisberger, the Steelers could have a home-field advantage greater than some people expect. Last year, the Steelers averaged 22.5 PPG in the two home games in which Roethlisberger didn’t appear. That total isn’t great, but it sure is better than the 18.5 PPG they averaged last year on the road without their starting QB.
Finally, even though Bell has gotten only two opportunities inside the 10-yard line this year (per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report), and even though in his first three NFL seasons he wasn’t a prodigious scorer (0.63 TDs per game, one TD per 38.4 opportunities, one TD per 209.4 scrimmage yards), he’s likely to experience some positive mean reversion soon. Through three games, he’s scoreless on 72 opportunities and 440 yards.
At some point, those TDs are coming. He has a 98 percent FD Bargain Rating.
Almost No Words Necessary
If guys not named “DeMarco” can do this against the defense ranked 32nd in rush DVOA . . .
. . . then what do you think that this guy . . .
. . . is going to do when his team is a 2.5-point home favorite implied to score 25 points?
The Murracle has FantasyLabs ownership projections of 26 to 30 percent. He leads his team in rushes (10) and targets (two) inside the 10-yard line over the last four games.
The Big Johnson
Johnson is easily the current RB1 in PPG . . .
. . . but he’s priced as the DK RB3 and FD RB4 because this week he’s facing the Seahawks, who allow a league-low 55.6 rushing YPG to RBs. Defensively, the Seahawks are first in total DVOA and second in rush DVOA, so Johnson certainly has a tough matchup.
But that really might not matter. The Cardinals are two-point home favorites implied to score 22.75 points. Johnson will likely be involved throughout the game, he has 13 carries within the 10-yard line over the last month, and he leads the team with 36.3 and 44.4 percent of the yardage and TDs from scrimmage. Unsurprisingly, he leads the entire NFL with 833 yards and eight TDs from scrimmage.
Averaging 5.5 targets per game on the season and a 14.01 percent target share over the last month, Johnson might do a large portion of his damage as a receiver. The Seahawks are 19th in pass DVOA against RBs, and Johnson is averaging 44.2 receiving YPG this season. If the Cardinals scheme him open as a receiver even just a few times this weekend, Johnson could turn a couple of targets into TDs, of which he now has 21 in 22 career games . . . even though he’s started only 11 games.
This season, Johnson is averaging 24.3 opportunities per game. Last week, the Jets defense ranked third in rush DVOA, and Johnson still managed to turn 22 rushes and six targets into 138 yards and three TDs. I’m going to echo (and slightly change) what I said then: He should be rostered with caution, but DJ always has the potential to be the RB1 in a slate.
He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 percent. Other lead backs to face the Seahawks this year have been owned at 1.5 and 1.3 percent on DK and FD.
Up the Gut
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
Melvin Gordon ($6,400 DK, $8,000 FD): MG3 is a volume-bloated, inefficient, TD-reliant back . . . but volume is everything, and he’s gotten a league-high 90.7 percent of the team’s carries and nine opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the last month. He has either 90 yards or a touchdown in every game this year. In an attempt to keep the Falcons’ high-scoring offense off the field, the underdog Chargers will likely use MG3 heavily on the road, especially since the Falcons allow the seventh-most fantasy points (30.5 DK and 26.2 FD PPG) to opposing RBs.
Todd Gurley ($6,300 DK, $8,100 FD): On the one hand, Gurley is probably a good ‘real’ RB. On the other hand, he hasn’t been a good fantasy RB this year:
And it doesn’t help that he’s the underdog RB in this week’s London game or that the Rams are implied to score only 20.5 points against the Giants, whose defense is ninth in rush DVOA.
Lamar Miller ($6,000 DK, $7,700 FD): Miller is second in the league with 20.8 carries per game, but this week the Texans are 7.5-point road underdogs implied to score a slate-low 16.5 points against the Broncos, whose defense is fourth in total DVOA and allowing only 13.10 DK and 12.27 FD PPG to lead RBs with 50 percent Consistency.
Christine Michael ($6,700 DK, $7,600 FD): C-Mike has been a great fantasy player this year:
But this week, the Seahawks are two-point road underdogs implied to score 20.75 points against the Cardinals, who are third in total DVOA and allowing only 13.95 DK and 12.03 FD PPG to lead RBs with 50 percent Consistency.
C.J. Anderson ($6,200 DK, $7,200 FD): The Broncos are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 24 points against the Texans. In theory, CJA should be able to party with that funnel defense . . .
. . . but Anderson has only 41 rushing YPG over the last month and 10.5 carries per game over his last two contests. He’s starting to lose opportunities to rookie backup Devontae Booker.
Jordan Howard ($6,000 DK, $7,000 FD): JoHo lost 10 opportunities to Ka’Deem Carey last week and is facing on Thursday night a Packers defense that is third in rush DVOA. As the lead back, he has seen a lot of work . . .
. . . but this season the Packers are allowing only 11.36 DK and 9.26 FD PPG to opposing lead RBs.
Spencer Ware ($5,800 DK, $7,000 FD): If recent usage is any indication, Ware is still the lead back in Kansas City — he’s averaged 22 opportunities per game over the past two contests — and this week, the Chiefs are 6.5-point home favorites implied to score 28.25 points against the Saints, who defensively are 30th in rush DVOA and allowing the most fantasy points (35.1 DK and 31.2 FD PPG) to opposing RBs. In other words:
LeGarrette Blount ($4,900 DK, $7,100 FD): He’s not quite as productive with QB Tom Brady back . . .
. . . but it’s hard to be down on a guy averaging a TD per game and +6.02 DK and +4.50 FD Plus/Minus values over the season.
Jay Ajayi ($4,500 DK, $6,400 FD): Arian Foster finally practiced in full on Wednesday, but Ajayi broke out last week, finishing as the RB3 with 36.7 DK and 33.2 FD points, and it’s hard to imagine Foster stealing back a large portion of the rushing share after averaging 2.59 YPC since last season. It’s easy to think that Ajayi sucks, but over the last month . . .
. . . he hasn’t really sucked. He leads the NFL with 5.73 YPC.
James White ($4,600 DK, $6,100 FD): Since last season, when Brady has been active and White has been used in the passing game . . .
. . . he’s basically been Tavon Austin, aside from the fact that he’s not a small overpaid wide receiver. On this week’s NFL Fantasy Flex podcast, we talked about White as a sneaky contrarian stacking option with Brady. Honestly, I don’t know if it’s even that contrarian. Based on what White has done with Brady this year . . .
. . . stacking White with Brady in at least some GPP lineups just seems like a smart move.
Bobby Rainey ($3,200 DK, $4,900 FD): He has a salary outside of the top 50, and in his three weeks as the Shane Vereen injury fill-in, the underappreciated Rainey has turned 18 targets and 15 carries into 15 receptions and 168 scrimmage yards. That’s not sexy, but it’s hard to turn your nose up at this kind of production . . .
. . . when it costs almost nothing. Rainey has some hidden potential in this week’s London game.
Jeremy Hill ($4,000 DK, $6,800 FD): He has a 99 percent DK Bargain Rating, 15 TDs in his last 22 games, and a matchup against the 0-6 Browns. The Bengals are slate-high 10-point home favorites implied to score 27.75 points, and Hill has been solid against the Browns in the past:
This year, five different big-bodied lead backs (DeMarco, Blount, Ajayi, Matt Jones, and Ryan Mathews) have scored against the Browns.
Jerick McKinnon ($4,300 DK, $6,500 FD): The SPARQ superstar is averaging 18 carries and 3.33 targets per game with Adrian Peterson out, and over the last two weeks the Eagles have given up an average of 24.35 DK and 21.35 FD points to Riddick and Jones. The Eagles defensively are 15th in rush DVOA and something of a run-game funnel.
Shaun Draughn ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD) and Mike Davis ($3,000 DK, $4,500): Last year, ‘Sean Drone’ was bearable in the games in which he was a lead back:
And last week, Davis out-opportunitied ‘Shawn Drawn’ eight to two and out-snapped him 24 to five. This week, one of these guys is likely to see goal-line carries in a fast-paced, run-heavy offense that has bestowed one TD per game upon injured starting RB Carlos Hyde.
Knile Davis (NA) and Don Jackson (NA): Da f*ck?
The Super Models
This week, we have a diverse cast of runners at the top of our four Pro Models:
• T.J. Yeldon: $4,100 DK, $6,300 FD
• Devonta Freeman: $5,900 DK, $7,500 FD
• Mark Ingram: $5,400 DK, $6,600 FD
• Jacquizz Rodgers: $4,300 DK, $5,600 FD
• Jamaal Charles: $5,700 DK, $6,800 FD
Let’s do this.
The Time I Forced Myself to Write a Blurb on Yeldon
I did it last week. I guess I’m doing it again this week. (Also, I’m going to repeat a lot of what I said last week, since it still applies.)
Yeldon’s currently the highest-rated DK RB in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models. What he has going for him is his FantasyLabs projected ownership of two to four percent, 90 percent DK Bargain Rating, and salary-based implied total of 7.9 points.
The Jaguars are 1.5-point home favorites implied to score 25 points against the Raiders, who defensively are 29th in total and rush DVOA and allowing the second-most rushing yards (125.2 YPG) to opposing RBs.
Yeldon has potential — his DK salary has dropped $1,500 in the last month — but’s he also losing significant snaps to Chris Ivory. He saw only six carries last week. The matchup is nice. The usage sucks.
One Letter Shy of Greatness
Freeman has been inconsistent this year because of the emergence of Tevin Coleman, but Devonta is still pacing for over 1,500 scrimmage yards as the lead RB on the highest-scoring team in the league. He’s the highest-rated DK RB in the Levitan Model. He’s also the highest-rated FD RB in the Sports Geek Model (if we assume that McCoy doesn’t play this week).
This week, the Falcons are 6.5-point home favorites implied to score 29.75 points against the Chargers, who defensively are 21st in rush DVOA and 20th in pass DVOA against RBs. The Chargers are allowing 32.8 DK and 27.8 FD PPG to RBs, both of which are top-three marks.
Against lead RBs especially, the Chargers have gotten rocked this year:
In other words . . .
Freeman has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 percent.
Home is Where the Points Are
Ingram is the highest-rated FD RB in the Bales Model.
The Saints aren’t playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football, so Ingram is likely to suck, right?
Not so fast . . .
As I mentioned last week, Ingram has been fairly home-agnostic since becoming the lead back for the Saints in 2014:
As a daily fantasy sports asset, Ingram has consistently been undervalued on the road in terms of salary and ownership on both DK and FD:
The Saints are 6.5-point road dogs implied to score only 21.75 points against the Chiefs. I’m not a line-setting expert, but that implied total for the Saints seems low, considering that they are scoring 31.0 PPG and have exceeded their implied Vegas totals this year by an average of 4.8 PPG.
In Ingram’s favor is that the Chiefs have a run-favoring funnel defense that is 23rd in rush DVOA. This year, the Chiefs are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards (110.2 YPG) to RBs.
Ingram has an 89 percent FD Bargain Rating and FantasyLabs ownership percentages of zero to one and two to four percent on DK and FD.
“Even The Smallest Person Can Change the Course of the Future”
By NFL standards, Quizz is a hobbit, but in Week 5 that didn’t matter: All that mattered was that he was the one chosen to carry the Ring. He carried it well enough, transforming 30 rush attempts and six targets into 129 yards, five receptions, 20.90 DK and 15.40 FD points, and +16.13 DK and +8.52 FD Plus/Minus values.
Injured starting RB Doug Martin (hamstring) was expected to return this week, but he has reportedly suffered a setback and so he won’t play. In his place, Quizz will get the start, and he’s in a good spot. The Bucs are 2.5-point road favorites implied to score 24.5 points against the 49ers, who defensively are 28th in rush DVOA and whose fast offensive pace should afford the Bucs’ skill-position players more opportunities.
This year, the 49ers have allowed the most yards rushing (149 YPG) and second-most TDs rushing (nine) to RBs. They’ve especially been destroyed by lead RBs:
Rodgers has FantasyLabs ownership projections of 31 to 40 and 21 to 25 percent on DK and FD. He’s especially intriguing on FD, where he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating and is the highest-rated RB in the Levitan Model.
“Who Does No. 2 Work For?”
Jamaal has a great matchup — as I mentioned in the Ware blurb, the Chiefs are 6.5-point home favorites implied to score 28.25 points against the Saints, who defensively are 30th in rush DVOA and allowing the most fantasy points (35.1 DK and 31.2 FD points) to opposing RBs — but Charles is still working his way back from an injury. Last week, he saw opportunities on 73.3 percent of his snaps, but he played only 15 snaps.
If last week’s usage is any indication, when the Chiefs use Charles, they really want to use him, but he’s going to have a hard time getting his No. 1 RB job back.
Still, Charles has 10 FD Pro Trends, a 92 percent FD Bargain Rating, and a very solid 0.34 FD points per snap. He has positive indicators.
Across his two games this season, Charles has seen four opportunities inside the 10-yard line. It’s as if the Chiefs are giving him the latter-day Jerome Bettis treatment, attempting to get him cheap TDs so that he can remain a contributing member of the team. And the Saints are allowing a league-high 2.2 TDs per game to RBs.
Even if he gets only 12 touches, JC Superstar has multi-TD upside.
He’s the highest-rated FD RB in the CSURAM88 Model.
Of course, Charles (knee) is questionable due to swelling. He legitimately might not play this week.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 7 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s RBs for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
