The Week 7 NFL Dashboard
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Week 7: Quarterbacks
As I pointed out in last week’s QB Breakdown — and several of them before that — QB salaries have dropped on DraftKings (per our Salary Change metric).
Over the course of the season, QB salaries have also risen on FanDuel, but over the last month they have reached something of an equilibrium. FD QB salaries are higher than they were in Week 1, but they are no longer rising.
What this means is that on a relative basis QBs are historically cheaper on DK than FD, but the trans-platform salary divergence doesn’t look as if it’s going to be any greater than it is now.
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
• On DK, 10 starting QBs — one-third of the full slate’s starting QBs — have experienced salary decreases of at least $500 over the last month. Only one starting QB has seen his salary increase by $500 in that time frame.
• On FD, the salary movement is now balanced: Six starting QBs have seen price bumps of $500 in the last month, and six have seen price drops of that amount.
Per our Trends tool, starting DK QBs who have undergone a one-month Salary Change of at least -$500 have historically done better than the average starter (in both fantasy points and Plus/Minus).
More texture:
• On DK, 11 starting QBs have Bargain Ratings higher than 80 percent. On FD, not one QB is in the top quintile.
• On DK, only one QB — you know who he is — has a top-12 salary for the entire slate. He’s tied with Amari Cooper for the seventh-highest salary. On FD, four QBs have top-12 salaries. The highest-salaried FD QB is only $100 cheaper than Julio Jones, the slate’s most expensive player.
The password isn’t “New England clam chowder.” It’s “Arbitrage” . . .
The Big Four
The Panthers are on a bye this week, so we won’t have the opportunity to roster Cam Newton or see him scowl underneath a hat that Eddie Murphy would’ve worn in Harlem Nights.
Cheer up, Cam! The Panthers might be 1-5 and going gentle into that good night, but last week at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football you finished as the DK QB3 and FD QB5 with 31.0 DK and 28.0 FD points per game (PPG). Get your priorities straight!
Anyway, sans Cam we have a clear top tier of four QBs (per DK and FD salaries):
• Tom Brady: $7,900 DK (QB1), $9,100 FD (QB1)
• Matt Ryan: $7,200 DK (QB3), $8,700 FD (QB2)
• Drew Brees: $7,400 DK (QB2), $8,500 FD (QB4)
• Aaron Rodgers: $7,100 DK (QB4), $8,600 FD (QB3)
Let’s consider these non-Dabbers one by one.
“Fear is the Path to the Dark Side: Fear Leads to Anger, Anger Leads to Hate, Hate Leads to Victories”
The hooded Sith Lord has Tomth Brader slaying Jedi Knights like it’s his evil day job. Through two games, he’s completing 76.0 percent of his passes for an average of 391 yards and three touchdowns per game. Of all starting QBs, he leads the league with (an unsustainable) 12.0 adjusted yards per attempt. Right now, Angry Brady’s shooting lightning bolts from his hands as the clear QB1 with 31.40 DK and 28.40 FD PPG:
Yeah, his ownership has been high — but probably not as high as his ‘pwnership.’ He leads all starting QBs with an 89.0 Total QBR (per ESPN).
This week, the Patriots are seven-point favorites with an implied Vegas total of 26.25 points. They’re on the road facing a Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers team allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game (298.3) to opposing QBs, and Brady (unlike the Super Bowl-winning QB he won’t be playing against) doesn’t have a debilitating home/road split. Per RotoViz:
Brady’s slightly better at home, as are most QBs, but over the last decade he’s basically just been himself regardless of where he’s played.
The Steelers’ sack rate of 3.1 percent is the second-lowest mark in the league, and their defense ranks 21st against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Defensively, the Steelers rank 24th and 24th with 33.59 yards allowed and 0.052 interceptions forced per drive.
You might not want to pay all the way up for a QB. If not, that’s fine. Brady looks like a sound investment if you like going overweight at the position. Unsurprisingly, he’s tied for the highest FantasyLabs ownership projections at nine to 12 percent.
Sarah Marshall’s Husband
The Ryan discount no longer exists. He’s provided phenomenal value to this point of the season as the QB2 with 26.70 DK and 24.53 FD PPG:
Just look at that Consistency and his strong Plus/Minus values — and also that amazingly low ownership — but none of that matters now. Ryan is currently priced as a top-three QB. His year-to-date performance is now fully accounted for in his pricing. And after averaging on the road 301 yards and two TDs passing per game against the Denver and Seattle defenses over the past two weeks, Ryan is now getting slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 percent — and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
This season, the Falcons have exceeded their implied Vegas totals by a league-high average of 10.5 PPG and are now 6.5-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 29.75 points against the Chargers, who are allowing the eighth-most yards passing (296 YPG) to QBs and now without lockdown cornerback Jason Verrett.
Plus, QBs at home have done well against them this year:
And Ryan has been strong at home this year:
Yeah, that’s a small sample . . . but even if he ‘regresses’ to his 2016 road averages, he still looks really good.
The Chargers are 28th in the league with 2.42 points allowed per drive, and over the last month Brady is the only QB to score more fantasy points per opportunity and snap.
Per Player Profiler, it’s not outrageous to say that Ryan is the 2016 NFL (and maybe DFS) MVP to date:
Ryan is no longer inexpensive — but, as the sayin’ go in Texas, “That there chair ain’t not cheap, either.”
That’s not actually a colloquialism, but it should be. It’s teeming with good ol’-fashioned folk wisdom.
By the way, on this week’s NFL Fantasy Flex pod, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) came to the conclusion that (for raw production) Brady and Ryan are in a tier of their own for Week 7.
As They Say on The Hills
I don’t have anything against Brees. I just don’t like him when he’s not playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football.
Here’s what Brees has done on the road since joining the Saints over a decade ago:
That’s not horrible, but it’s significantly worse than what he does at home.
And here are Brees’ home/road splits since Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead emerged as his top wide receivers last year:
Fewer fantasy points, fewer pass attempts, fewer completions, more interceptions, way fewer TDs and yards passing, and even fewer rushing yards: He’s never been great on the road, but since last year, Brees away from the Superdome has basically been a good version of Blaine Gabbert — and that still sucks.
The Saints are 6.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 21.75 points against a Chiefs team whose defense is sixth in pass DVOA. Additionally, the Chiefs defense is 23rd in rush DVOA, so — #FunnelDefense — the Saints (for once) might attempt to run the ball more than they ordinarily would.
It’s hard to fade Brees outright, as the Saints are second in the league in scoring with 31 PPG and have reached at least 32 points in four of their five games this year, but the Saints have not been themselves on the road since last season:
Excuse me while I state the obvious, but that’s bad.
What I said last week about Roethlisberger on the road applies here to Brees:
You wouldn’t rest your genitals on a Venus flytrap, would you? I mean, it might turn out OK. It might not bite you. It might not cause any pain if it does bite. Who knows . . . you might even enjoy it. But no sane person would do it.
Brees always has the potential to score 35-plus PPG regardless of where he’s playing. But on the road this year . . .
. . . he’s been worse than [insert here the name of almost any uninspiring 2016 starting QB].
Brees on the road should probably just be an ‘instavoid.’ And his case isn’t helped by the fact that he’s playing the defense that over the last 16 games has allowed to QBs the third- and second-lowest Opponent Plus/Minus values (-3.0 DK and -2.6 FD) in the NFL.
I could write another 1,000 words or insert some screenshots, but I think that you get the idea.
“The Cheese is Old and Moldy; Where is the Bathroom?”
I’m going to keep on repeating what I’ve said before until it’s no longer true.
On the one hand, Rodgers is the QB10 and QB8 with 20.36 DK and 19.96 FD PPG. On the other hand, he’s the only top-18 QB on both sites to have a negative Plus/Minus:
Even with WR Jordy Nelson back on the field, Rodgers has basically been this year the guy he was last year. And that guy wasn’t all that good.
Through five games, Rodgers is averaging 234 passing YPG — lower than last year’s 238.8-yard average, the worst seasonal mark of his career. In the last 16 games, he has passed for 300 yards or four TDs just twice and surpassed 30 fantasy points just once.
There’s reason to be optimistic about Rodgers. The Packers are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.75 points against a Bears team with a defense that doesn’t have one cornerback graded as a top-40 cover man by Pro Football Focus. With no established healthy running backs on the roster, the Packers will likely be very pass-heavy in this game, giving Rodgers a good opportunity to exceed value.
At the same time, there was reason to be optimistic about him last week against the Cowboys and the week before that against the Giants — and, as has been the case with Rodgers for a while, he didn’t reward that optimism. A-Rod always has QB1 overall upside in any given week. It’s just (apparently) getting harder for him to hit that upside.
Rodgers plays on Thursday night. In general, if you’re using a Thursday player, you should expect him to be productive enough to make up for the extra ownership he’s likely to have. Rodgers hasn’t thrown for 400 yards in 30 consecutive games.
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way:
Philip Rivers ($6,500 DK, $7,800 FD): In 54 games with Mike McCoy as his head coach, Rivers has actually had reverse home/road splits:
The Chargers are road underdogs implied to score only 23.25 points, but they’ve outscored their implied Vegas totals by an average of 5.0 PPG this year. The Falcons have allowed the third-most fantasy points (23.1 DK and 22.5 FD) to opposing QBs this season.
Eli Manning ($6,100 DK, $7,700 FD): The Giants are 2.5-point favorites implied to score 23 points against the Rams in this week’s London game. The Rams are 18th in pass DVOA, and over the last five years, London favorites have exceeded their implied Vegas totals by an average of 9.33 PPG. Since 2014, favored London QBs have 100 percent Consistency Ratings. Of course . . .
. . . we’re talking about Eli. Who really knows what the f*ck to do.
Case Keenum ($5,200 DK, $6,700 FD): In general, underdog QBs in the London games don’t do well.
Marcus Mariota ($6,000 DK, $7,900 FD): He has a 92 percent Bargain Rating on DK, where he leads the slate with seven Pro Trends. He’s been on absolute fire in his last two games . . .
. . . averaging 223.5 yards and three TDs passing, as well as 62 yards and 0.5 TDs rushing for 29.65 DK PPG and a +13.99 DK Plus/Minus. This week, he’s at home going against a Colts defense that is 29th in pass DVOA.
Andrew Luck ($7,000 DK, $8,200 FD): On the one hand, he’s QB6 and QB7 with 22.85 DK and 21.02 FD PPG. And he’s Andrew F*cking Luck. On the other hand, the Titans this year are allowing -1.54 DK and -0.59 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to QBs, with only one opposing passer reaching 20 fantasy points. The Titans defense is 10th in pass DVOA.
Derek Carr ($6,300 DK, $8,300 FD): The Raiders are 1.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 23.5 points against the Jaguars, whose defense is eighth in pass DVOA. So it’s not a matchup that seems eminently exploitable. At the same time, Carr is QB9 with 20.82 DK and 19.65 FD PPG, and he is slated to have Cooper matched up for most of the game against cornerback Davon House, PFF’s 112th-ranked coverage CB . . . out of 114. So Carr has potential — but he also might get ‘funneled’ out of the game script, given that the Jags defense ranks 27th in rush DVOA.
Colin Kaepernick ($5,300 DK, $6,500 FD): This year, Blaine Gabbert and Kaepernick have averaged 16.05 DK and 15.97 FD PPG against the entire NFC West, last year’s NFC champion, God’s favorite team, and the Bills. They’ve combined to hit their salary-based point expectations with 66.7 percent Consistency. That’s not bad. This week, Kaep gets to face a Tampa Bay defense that is 22nd in pass DVOA. I’m not saying that you should actually roster Kaep. I guess I’m just saying that #Team49ersQB hasn’t been horrible this year, even though most people probably feel differently. You know what? This is DFS. F*ck feelings.
Brian Hoyer ($5,900 DK, $6,700 FD): The journeyman has four straight games of 3oo yards and not-Jay Cutler-ness. On Thursday night, he’s slated to face a Packers defense expected to be without its three starting CBs. The Bears are implied to score only 19.25 points as road underdogs, but in Hoyer’s four starts, the Bears have averaged only 18.25 points — and he’s still managed to ball out:
This year, the Packers have allowed +3.10 DK and +1.81 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to QBs — and that’s been primarily with their starting CBs.
Sam Bradford ($5,100 DK, $7,300 FD): Two words, one hashtag, no verbs: #NarrativeStreet
Tyrod Taylor ($5,500 DK, $7,700 FD): TyGod has a slate-high 98 percent DK Bargain Rating, a +2.80 Plus/Minus on 100 percent Consistency since the departure of former offensive coordinator Greg Roman, and an opposing Miami defense that has allowed QBs comparable in price to rack up the points:
As I said last week: “If you are looking for a cheap DK QB who won’t sabotage your lineup in cash games, Tyrod could be the guy.”
Geno Smith ($5,000 DK, $5,000 FD): He’s not Ryan Fitzpatrick. That statement cuts both ways.
The Super Models
Last week, there were only three QBs at the top of our Pro Models: Newton on FD and Tyrod and Carson Palmer on DK.
This week, there’s not nearly the consensus at the top of the Models.
• Andy Dalton: $6,000 DK, $8,100 FD
• Blake Bortles: $6,200 DK, $7,400 FD
• Alex Smith: $6,100 DK, $7,200 FD
• Joe Flacco: $5,800 DK, $7,600 FD
• Kirk Cousins: $5,900 DK, $7,300 FD
Let’s admire these beauts.
By the way, I’m 100 percent sure that’s the first time I’ve ever used the word “beaut” in writing or speaking. I don’t like it.
The Battle for Ohio
Dalton is currently the No. 1 DK QB in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models, and it’s not hard to see why. He has a 96 percent DK Bargain Rating and an enticing matchup against a Browns defense that is 30th in pass DVOA and allowing the league’s second-highest Opponent Plus/Minus (+7.24 DK) as well as a 100 percent Consistency rating to starting QBs.
The Browns are allowing the second-most fantasy points (24.1 DK and 22.5 FD PPG) in the league to the position, and they generate limited pressure with the NFL’s sixth-lowest sack rate (4.1 percent). They give up passing TDs at the league’s second-highest rate (7.5 percent) and rank 28th with 2.41 points allowed per drive. For a team with a defensive backfield that doesn’t have one starter graded lower than average by PFF, the Browns really suck against QBs.
Dalton has a top-five WR in A.J. Green, a competent No. 2 WR and red-zone option in Brandon LaFell, and a top-five tight end in Tyler Eifert, who has returned to practice (per the FantasyLabs News feed) and is expected to play this week.
Dalton is priced as the DK QB14 and currently has the fourth-highest point projection. His FantasyLabs ownership projections sit at five to eight percent.
Chortles for Bortles
Bryan Mears highlights Bortles in this week’s Stacking Guide, and the third-year JAG — #NailedIt — is currently the No. 1 FD QB in the Bales, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models, so let’s talk about him.
He’s probably not a good ‘real’ QB, and so far this season he hasn’t been a good fantasy QB . . .
. . . but his salary has dropped $1,000 since the season started, and this week the Jaguars are 1.5-point home favorites implied to score 25 points against the Raiders.
In the words of David Bowie, “Wham, bam, thank you, ma’am.”
The Raiders defense is 29th in total DVOA and 28th in pass DVOA with a league-high 319 passing YPG allowed to QBs. Defensively, the Raiders are 28th and 26th with 37.88 yards and 2.36 points allowed per drive. They get little pressure on opposing QBs: They have the league’s fourth-lowest sack rate (3.6 percent). On the season, they’re allowing the NFL’s third-highest Opponent Plus/Minus (+3.91 FD) to QBs.
And when opposing teams this season have had comparable implied totals, the Raiders have allowed their QBs to crush (with the exception of Kansas City Jesus):
The Raiders have allowed at least 350 yards and three TDs passing in half of their games, and Bortles is nothing if not a slinger.
He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of two to four percent.
“It’s Not You, It’s Them”
The Savior is the No. 1 FD QB in the CSURAM88 Model, which is appropriate since Peter was relatively bullish on him on this week’s podcast.
Let’s get this over with.
Smith has not been productive this year. He’s averaging one TD passing and three yards rushing per game. If the statue-esque Brady were forced to throw left-handed, he could probably do better than that.
But this week, the Chiefs are 6.5-point home favorites implied to score 28.25 points against the Saints. That‘s why Smith is of interest.
INSERT HERE STANDARD BLURB ABOUT THE SAINTS . . .
You probably already know this, but last year the Saints defense allowed an NFL-record 45 TDs passing and was dead last in DVOA. This year, the defense is 26th in pass DVOA with 314 passing yards allowed per game. They’re allowing 23.10 DK and 20.50 FD PPG to QBs. Teams are scoring against them on 46.6 percent of their drives (the league’s third-highest mark), and defensively the Saints are 30th, 31st, and 28th with 38.80 yards, 2.73 points, and 0.036 interceptions per drive.
Over the last 16 games, they’ve allowed slate-high +9.3 DK and +7.3 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to QBs, as well as a 55.62 percent success rate on pass attempts and a 27.1 percent TD rate in the red zone, which are the second-highest marks in the slate. In every game this year, they’ve allowed either 300 yards or multiple TDs passing.
That said . . . if there’s one guy who can find a way to suck against the Saints, it’s the Utahn water walker. No one is better at making nothing out of something. It’s a gift.
The Major Was a Lady Suffragette
This week, Flacco faces a Jets defense that is dead last in pass DVOA. The Jets are 29th, 27th, and 30th on defense with 38.35 yards, 2.38 points, and 0.033 INTs per drive. Do I really need to give any more analysis?
The Ravens are one-point road underdogs implied to score only 20.25 points, but Flacco has a chance to benefit from a pass-heavy game plan, as the Ravens could plan to throw the ball more than usual against a defense that is fifth in rush DVOA.
The Jets are allowing QBs to score the fifth-most DK and FD PPG in the NFL:
Flacco is the definition of an unsexy play, but he has a lot of upside for his salary. If he torched the Jets for 300 yards and three TDs, would anyone really be surprised?
Flacco’s currently the highest-rated DK QB in the Levitan Model.
The Obligatory Mention
I believe that each week of the season — until last week — I had mentioned Rams QB Kalifornia Keenum in the QB Breakdown. I didn’t mention him last week for two reasons:
- I was tired of typing his name, and the QB article — which is always the longest of the positional breakdowns — was already long enough.
- I knew that he was playing the Lions, and I thought, “If you need me to tell you that a guy playing the Lions has the potential to go off, you need more help than I can provide.”
In retrospect, I wish I would’ve just said something like, “Hey, he’s playing the Lions, who suck,” and I’m not going to make that mistake again.
This week, the Redskins are one-point road underdogs implied to score 24 points against the Lions, who suck. Their defense is 31st in pass DVOA. They allow an offensive score on 46.6 percent of their drives. They have allowed 17 TDs passing through six games, which puts them on pace to break the NFL record of 45 TDs allowed last year by the Saints. They are allowing a league-high 26.1 DK and 24.6 FD PPG to QBs. And QBs are racking up obscene Plus/Minus values against them:
Is that a Consistency rating of 100 percent in your pocket? — or are you Cousins and just happy to play the Lions this week?
Defensively, they are 32nd and 32nd in the league with 41.60 yards and 2.78 points allowed per drive.
In the words of the man himself . . .
Cousins is currently the No. 1 DK QB in the Sports Geek Model, and he has FantasyLabs ownership projections of two to four and five to eight percent on DK and FD.
Yes, Kirk, we like that.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 7 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s QBs for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
