The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 6: Wide Receivers
You know the drill. As I pointed out in last week’s WR Breakdown, our Bargain Rating metric indicates that wide receivers on DraftKings cost more than Jon Bon Jovi’s haircut, whereas FanDuel WRs are cheaper than VHS pornos . . . which might’ve belonged to Bon Jovi back in the day. Can you prove that they didn’t?
On DK, the average Bargain Rating of the five WRs with the highest salaries is literally 0.2 percent. Seriously. Four of those five guys have zero percent Bargain Ratings. It’s not till we get to $4,700 that we see a DK WR with a Bargain Rating higher than 30 percent.
On FD, four of the five guys with the highest salaries have Bargain Ratings of 99 percent. Not till $6,600 do we see a FD WR with a Bargain Rating lower than 70 percent.
If you look at the pricing for all DK players, you’ll notice that six of the seven-highest salaries in the slate belong to WRs. DK is really valuing its point-per-reception scoring. On FD, only one of the seven-highest salaries belongs to a WR.
If you’re paying up for a DK WR just be aware that you’re really paying up, at least from a historical perspective.
The Big . . . Wait, What?
Most weeks, the same general group of WRs is at the top of the DK and FD salary scales. There’s normally a point in the spreadsheet where you can insert a line above which the WRs on DK are the same as the ones on FD. Sometimes it’s the Big Four. Last week it was the Big Five. Most of the time it’s the Big Three.
This week, not so much. There’s no clear line of demarcation. Well, technically there is. It’s right after Antonio Brown. He’s the WR1 on both sites, $10,000 on DK and $9,700 on FD. Frankly, he’s in a tier of his own. On both sites he’s $1,100 more expensive than the guy priced at WR2. That spread is massive. It’s the same as the spread between the DK WR2 and WR7 and the FD WR2 and WR15.
The First Question
The first question you need to answer this week in building lineups is whether you’re going to use Antonio in cash games.
In our Player Models we have an optimizer that is great for helping you quickly put together cash lineups, which you can then adjust as you see fit.
In the Bales Model, if I exclude Antonio on DK and then optimize, I get a lineup I like a lot and that I can adjust very easily. It has Carson Palmer, Le’Veon Bell, Carlos Hyde, and some WRs whose usage I trust.
If, however, I lock in Antonio and then optimize, I’m less enthusiastic about the resulting lineup. It has some of the same guys, but it’s not as easy to manipulate into a lineup I really like.
I’m not saying that you can’t play Antonio. I’m just saying that it might be harder to build a likable cash lineup with him than without him.
The Tier Unto Himself
I could write a lot about how awesome Antonio is. Instead I’ll just post this image of his game log, available in his FantasyLabs player card:
In his last 15 games, he’s been an absolute stud, with double-digit targets in all but two contests — and in those games he still averaged 22.20 DK points.
The only drawback to Brown is that the Steelers are playing in Miami, and the Steelers (and Brown) tend not to do as well on the road. Per RotoViz:
Of course, Antonio’s situation is prime. The Steelers are 7.5-point favorites implied to score 27.25 points, and the Dolphins have been destroyed this year by opposing No. 1 WRs:
Sweet fancy Moses!
Antonio has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of 13 to 16 percent on DK and 31 to 40 percent on FD.
In the words of the Grail Knight, “Choose wisely.”
The Super Models
I should really say a quick word about our Player Models. They’re all different. Four of the members of Team FantasyLabs — FantasyLabs co-founders Jonathan Bales and Peter Jennings as well as Adam Levitan and Kevin McClelland (The Sports Geek) — have created separate Pro Models, each of which emphasizes different factors and weights them accordingly. There are some similarities across the board, but each of the Pro Models is unique because the four creators of the Models all evaluate players and theorize daily fantasy sports in different ways.
But sometimes there are players who are so good, whose numbers are so high across the board, that they pop in multiple Models at once. That’s what we see this week.
• John Brown: $4,500 DK (WR38), $6,600 FD (WR41)
• Jordan Matthews: $6,700 DK (WR22), $6,700 FD (WR39)
The four Pro Models are unanimous. These are the highest-rated WRs in the slate.
The No. 2 WR in Arizona
I hope that you like cherries, because I’m about to pick some. In Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report for this week, we can easily see the extent to which J-Bro is important to the Cardinals offense. Over the last four games, Brown has been second on the team with 21.66 percent of its targets and first with 28.37 percent of its Air Yards (a metric developed by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer). But I think that he’s actually more important to the team than those numbers suggest.
Last year, Brown was second on the team in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns receiving, and WR catch rate in just his second year, exhibiting a combination of consistency and explosiveness that his teammates lack. He’s very much the type of WR that head coach Bruce Arians has historically featured in his offenses.
To open the season, Brown saw limited snaps and targets in Weeks 1 and 2 as he worked his way back from a preseason concussion. In Weeks 3 and 4 he easily led the team with 27 targets. Then in Week 5 he got only four targets from backup QB Drew Stanton.
It’s possible that Weeks 3 and 4 represent Brown’s most likely usage moving forward, and in those games he averaged eight receptions for 107 yards.
This week, the Cardinals are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.75 points against the Jets, whose defense is last in the league in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Against No. 2 WRs their pass DVOA is merely 30th.
Per the FantasyLabs Matchups tool, Brown is likely to run many of his routes against right cornerback Marcus Williams, who currently has a poor 48.5 grade from Pro Football Focus. J-Bro has the potential to smoke that guy like a cigar.
Through five games, the Jets have allowed non-No. 1 WRs to exploit them:
• Week 1 – Brandon LaFell: Four receptions, 91 yards
• Week 2 – Marquise Goodwin: Two receptions, 112 yards, one touchdown
• Week 2 – Greg Salas: Four receptions, 89 yards, one TD
• Week 3 – F*cking Chiefs
• Week 4 – Tanner McEvoy: One reception, 42 yards, one TD
• Week 5 – Sammie Coates: Six receptions, 139 yards, two TDs
Brown’s the highest-rated DK WR in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models. He might be the No. 2 WR in Arizona, but on Monday night he could produce like one of the best WRs in the league.
In the Slot
Matthews (the highest-rated FD WR across the board) plays the majority of his snaps in the slot, and the Redskins have been exploited consistently this year by slot WRs on FD:
Being in the slot gives Matthews a good chance to avoid shutdown CB Josh Norman for most of the game, and extra targets might come his way if the Redskins seek not to target the receiver Norman covers on any given play.
Matthews is first on the Eagles with 22.56 percent of the team’s targets and 34.76 percent of the Air Yards. Even though he plays in the slot, Matthews is being targeted down the field and has some big-play potential. It’s unfortunate that the Eagles are such a run-oriented team near the goal line — Matthews has only one target this season inside the 10-yard line — but his volume should give him a reasonable chance to provide value.
Matthews has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of two to four percent on FD, and the Eagles are 2.5-point road favorites implied to score 23.5 points. Matthews isn’t a sexy play, but he does have a high floor — and he always has the upside of his 7-114-1 performance from Week 1.
Fly Patterns
Nine route, go.
Allen Robinson: Priced as the DK WR7 and FD WR2, Robinson is going against a Bears defense allowing 18.20 DK and 14.70 FD points per game (PPG) to No. 1 WRs. Robinson’s averaging 10.25 targets per game and his salary-based implied total is 16.99 DK and 14.50 FD points.
Julio Jones: He’s expected by PFF to be shadowed by CB Richard Sherman, who in Week 4 shadowed Brandon Marshall on the outside for 40 of his routes. Marshall’s 4-89-1 stat line didn’t seem to mind. Julio has a team-high 25.78 and 39.45 percent of the Falcons’ targets and Air Yards over the last month. He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of two to four percent.
Odell Beckham: Last year through five games, he had 52 targets. This year, he has 51. Per PFF, OBJ’s matchup with CB Jimmy Smith is a positive one for the WR, as Smith has a poor 52.9 coverage grade — the second-worst grade among the Ravens CBs.
Kelvin Benjamin: He’s playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football. How much extra incentive do you need to roster a guy with four TDs in five games?
Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead: They’re both in play in all formats, but Snead has basically done in three games this year what Cooks needed four games to accomplish.
T.Y. Hilton: For a defense that’s ninth in pass DVOA, the Texans have allowed some big performances to WRs. See Thielen, Adam (Week 4). Hilton is DK WR2 and FD WR3 in PPG. Hilton’s first on the Colts with 28.48 and 41.96 percent of targets and Air Yards over the last month.
Doug Baldwin: No team allows more TDs receiving than the Falcons. Baldwin has 33 percent of the Seahawks’ receiving scores this year and 16 TDs in his last 20 games. The Falcons defense is 24th in pass DVOA, and the Seahawks are 6.5-point home favorites implied to score 26 points.
Larry Fitzgerald: Fitzy leads the NFL with five receiving TDs, he has a team-high four targets inside the 10-yard line over the last month, and on Monday night he gets to face in Arizona the Jets, who have a funnel defense ranked last in pass DVOA. #GetOnThat
Tavon Austin: Mr. Peripheral is averaging 9.5 targets, 1.8 rushes, and 2.4 punt returns per game, and this week he faces a Lions team allowing a league-high 14 TDs receiving. His FantasyLabs ownership projections are two to four and zero to one percent on DK and FD.
Amari Cooper: The Kansas City defense is sixth in pass DVOA, but Cooper for most of his routes is slated to be matched up with CB Phillip Gaines, who has a poor PFF grade of 44.8. Cooper is first on the Raiders with 22.38 and 37.48 percent of the targets and Air Yards over the last four games.
Jeremy Maclin: The Raiders allow the most fantasy points in the league to opposing WRs. And it’s not even close.
Cam Meredith: His target share has increased each game, and he has a slate-high ownership projection of 26 to 30 percent on DK, where he was the WR4 last week with 30.6 points. Don’t go chasing points — but he’s got some potential.
Sammie Coates: What does it matter that he drops passes? He’s still averaging a league-high 22.2 yards per reception and catching 61.3 percent of his passes. That catch rate is more than acceptable considering that Coates in his last four games has garnered 37.62 percent of the team’s Air Yards on only 17.65 percent of the targets. It doesn’t matter that he drops passes. The catches he makes are more than enough. And if he stops dropping passes he’ll be a DFS legend. Having said that, I acknowledge that news has broken indicating he’s unlikely to play this week.
Chris Hogan: Over the last month, he’s fourth on the Patriots with 13.01 percent of the targets but an easy first with 33.75 percent of the Air Yards. In three games this year with Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo at QB, Hogan is averaging five targets for 3.67 receptions, 77.67 yards, and 0.33 TDs. Hogan’s basically the Coates who hasn’t had his multi-TD game yet.
Terrelle Pryor: It’s hard to ignore 9.2 targets per game. It’s even harder to ignore that Pryor is expected to run most of his routes against CB Perrish Cox, who has a horrid 39.1 coverage grade from PFF and the smell of burnt rubber always around his person.
Jeremy Kerley: He’s uncertain with an ankle injury, but he’s averaging nine targets, 5.2 receptions, 60.8 yards, and 0.4 TDs per game. Over the last month he’s fourth in the league with a 29.46 percent market share of team targets. Seriously, where do you get off pretending that you’re too good for 14.28 DK and 11.08 FD PPG at $4,000 and $5,800? He’s on the 49ers, and he probably sucks in reality. Fortunately, that doesn’t matter in fantasy.
Finally, Peter Jennings mentioned Will Fuller as a guy to target on this week’s NFL Fantasy Flex pod. Per PFF, Fuller has one of the slate’s best matchups against Colts CB Patrick Robinson, who has a sad PFF coverage grade of 40.0.
I love Fuller. He’s either scored a TD or gone over 100 yards in three of his first five NFL games. You might look at that and say that he’s a volatile WR3. That’s bullsh*t. To borrow from Brian Fantana, “60 percent of the time, he’s a WR1 every time.”
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 6 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s WRs for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
