The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 6 Tight Ends
It’s another week . . .
To Gronk or Not to Gronk
In last week’s TE Breakdown, I mentioned that Rob Gronkowski was probably a risky play in cash games because his snap count and usage were hard to determine.
That perspective no longer applies.
Gronk is clearly on the mend. Last week he played on 81 percent of the Patriots’ offensive snaps and turned seven targets into five receptions for 109 yards. Gronk didn’t score any TDs — those, um, went to another TE — but he showed and produced enough to give us confidence that he’s almost back to his full Gronkonian self.
On DraftKings, he’s only $6,700 as the TE2. On FanDuel, he’s the TE1 at $8,400 — almost as expensive as he was when the season started. In our Player Models, he has FantasyLabs ownership projections of nine to 12 percent.
If you don’t mind paying up for TEs and Gronk in particular, now’s probably the time to do it. He could very easily be even more expensive next week.
The Patriots are 8.5-point home favorites over the Bengals with an implied Vegas total of 27.75 points. The Bengals defense is ranked 16th against TEs in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) . . . if that even matters.
It probably doesn’t matter. We’re talking about Gronk.
On this week’s NFL Fantasy Flex pod, FantasyLabs co-founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) suggested that if there’s a week to play Gronk in tournaments, it’s probably this one.
The Alternatives
I’m not sure if that was the name of a ’90s band, but that would’ve been a great band name.
Anyway, if you’re not playing Gronk, there’s a decent chance that you’re thinking about playing one of these next guys.
For Kids Who Can’t Reed Good
Jordan Reed (per the FantasyLabs News feed) has been officially ruled out with a concussion. In his place, the ancient Vernon Davis is likely to be the starter. Amazingly, he has 11 targets on the season, which he’s turned into 10 receptions for 94 yards. He’s as cheap as cheap gets on both DK and FD.
Having said that . . . I’m not really sure that’s a reason to start him in any format.
Target Monster
Greg Olsen is fifth in the NFL with 53 targets, just behind Brandon Marshall (54) and ahead of A.J. Green (52). Per our Trends tool, Olsen is crushing the TE position in points per game as well as Plus/Minus.
This week, Olsen plays at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football against a Saints defense that is 26th in pass DVOA and allowing 312 yards passing per game.
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Olsen over the last four games is first on the Panthers with 29.33 percent of the team’s targets and 37.25 percent of the Air Yards (a metric created by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer).
He has slate-high FantasyLabs projections of nine to 12 and 13 to 16 percent on DK and FD. He’s as chalky as the TE position gets in this slate and is the highest-rated FD TE in the Levitan Model.
Then, Again . . .
Delanie Walker still leads the Titans in yards and TDs receiving, despite missing a game a couple of weeks ago. He’s averaged eight targets per game since then, and on the season he’s averaging 6.75 targets for four receptions, 56.25 yards, and 0.5 TDs per contest.
This week, the Titans are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against the Browns, whose defense is 30th against TEs in pass DVOA and currently allowing league-high marks of 27.3 DK and 21.5 FD points per game (PPG) to the position.
And One More . . .
Welcome back, Jimmy Graham. Returning from the bye, Graham has catapulted himself into the upper tier of TEs. If we assume that Reed doesn’t play this week, Graham has a top-five DK salary and top-three FD salary. He’s back.
If we discount Graham’s Week 1 warm-up game in which he played only 21 percent of the offensive snaps and saw just one target, then we have a Graham who is averaging seven targets, 85 yards, and 0.33 TDs per game. That’s pretty tasty.
Like Walker, Graham is in a really good spot. The Seahawks are six-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against the Falcons, whose defense is allowing the second-most fantasy points in the league to TEs (19.8 DK and 16.2 FD PPG).
Since his Week 3 performance, Jimmy has experienced a Salary Change of +$1,900 on DK and +$1,700 on FD. If he has another big week, it will almost certainly go up more.
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, I’m throwing the ball.
Coby Fleener: The Panthers allow the eighth-most DK and FD PPG to TEs and have a defense that is ranked 29th against the position in pass DVOA. Fleener is averaging seven targets per game and is second on the team with 22.09 percent of the Air Yards. He’s the highest-rated DK TE in the CSURAM88 and Levitan Models.
Zach Ertz: The Redskins are allowing the seventh-most FD points to TEs, and Ertz is only $5,400 on FD, where he’s the highest-rated TE in the Bales, CSURAM88, and Sports Geek Models.
Lance Kendricks: The Lions have allowed literally 18 TDs to TEs over the last 21 games. Amazingly, Kendricks is averaging 4.6 targets per game this year.
Ryan Griffin: The Colts defense is 31st in pass DVOA against TEs, and Griffin is averaging five targets per game.
Richard Rodgers: The Cowboys defense is 32nd in pass DVOA against TEs. Rodgers is massively uninspiring, but he did score eight TDs last year.
Jesse James: He has 5.2 targets per game and three TDs on the season. He’s basically already morphed into Heath Miller and is the highest-rated DK TE in the Sports Geek Model.
Zach Miller: After five games, he leads the Bears with three TDs receiving.
Finally, just remember that last week Martellus Bennett played fewer snaps than Gronk. Don’t go chasing waterfalls.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 6 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s TEs for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
