The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
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Week 6: Running Backs
Time isn’t just a flat circle. It’s an expansive gyre.
As I said in the RB Breakdown last week and the week before that, DraftKings RBs are inordinately expensive. FanDuel RBs, very cheap.
Of the DK RBs with the 18 highest salaries, not one has a Bargain Rating above 50. Among the RBs with the 12 highest salaries, half have DK Bargain Ratings no greater than 10 percent.
Perhaps unsurprisingly — especially since this has been the case for weeks — the DK RBs available at a relative discount are (for the most part) the big grinders who don’t catch passes. Given DK’s point-per-reception scoring, these big-bodied RBs have been priced down perhaps too far. I’m not saying that you must roster these guys or mustn’t roster other guys. I’m just saying that if you’re looking for value you might be able to find it in some of the big guys who are outside of the top 18 in DK salaries.
On FD, the value is much easier to find. Among RBs with top-12 positional salaries, only two have FD Bargain Ratings lower than 75 percent. If you look at the Player Models, you’re basically swimming in green. Yes, you can still roster a guy with a zero percent FD Bargain Rating if you want to, but I don’t know why you would.
The Big Three
This week’s Big Three is the same as last week’s. The two highest spots are swapped, but these three RBs have formed a top tier at the position:
• David Johnson: $8,000 DK (RB1), $9,100 FD (RB2)
• Le’Veon Bell: $7,900 DK (RB2), $9,300 FD (RB1)
• DeMarco Murray: $7,700 DK (RB3), $8,800 FD (RB3)
A few things about these guys:
- They are available within a tight salary range. If you like Murray but want to pay up for one of the other guys, you probably can. Monetarily, they’re interchangeable.
- They are separated from the next tier of RBs by buffers of $500 and $600 on DK and FD. They truly are their own tier.
- They are all big-bodied pass-catching three-down workhorses. It’s possible to arbitrage this tier, but it’s not easy.
Let’s break ’em down.
The Big Johnson
You can read last week’s piece if you want to know everything that’s great about Johnson. There’s a lot that’s great about him. But this week there’s a lot that’s not ideal about his situation.
The Cardinals are 7.5-point home favorites with an implied Vegas total of 27 points. That all seems good, but the problem is that the Cards are playing the Jets, whose defense is third against the run in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). On top of that, the Jets are last in the league in pass DVOA, so Johnson might see limited work as a runner against New York’s funnel defense.
Johnson still has the slate’s fourth-highest RB projection because he’s still likely to get regular opportunities, especially near the goal-line: Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Johnson has seen 66.37 percent of his team’s carries and nine touches inside the 10-yard line over the last month. Even if he’s not as efficient with his carries, he should still see a decent amount of volume, some of which will be in high-leverage situations.
Additionally, Johnson’s gotten 13.38 percent of the team’s targets in the last month. His ability as a receiver gives him a very high floor, and he could easily exploit the Jets as a receiver, as their defense is ranked 27th against RBs in pass DVOA. There definitely are reasons to like Johnson.
But, again, this year the Jets have been pretty good against RBs, especially workhorse backs (per our Trends tool):
The Jets haven’t entirely shut down each RB they’ve faced — just last week Le’Veon turned 20 carries and 11 targets into 154 scrimmage yards and 24.4 DK and 19.9 FD points — but they’ve been good enough against enough good RBs to make Johnson a risky play, and the fact that he plays on Monday night also complicates matters a little.
Johnson is still the guy who in 21 career games has scored 18 TDs, even though he’s started only 10 games. He always has the potential to be the RB1 in a slate. But this week he should be rostered with caution.
His Le’Veownership Will Be High
Through two games, Bell is the DK RB1 and FD RB3 with 25.10 and 20.10 points per game (PPG). He’s the highest-scoring starting RB on a PPG basis in our database . . .
. . . and he’s still the balls.
We have no way of knowing if his usage to date is what we should expect to see going forward, but he’s averaging 19 rushes and 8.5 targets across two games. That type of usage is usually reserved only for guys named “DeMarco.” It’s utterly elite.
If there are two (minor) issues with Le’Veon, it’s these:
- Le’Veon doesn’t get touches near the goal-line.
- The Steelers are playing on the road this week.
It’s true that Le’Veon doesn’t get the volume of goal-line opportunities that other workhorse backs get. This year he’s gotten two opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Johnson and DeMarco get maybe two to three such opportunities per game. At the same time, Le’Veon is a top-three RB in PPG without scoring a TD yet. Once he starts to score TDs . . . do you really need me to finish that sentence?
And, yes, the Steelers are on the road. As I point out in the QB Breakdown, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger isn’t great on the road, and neither are the Steelers for that matter (per RotoViz) . . .
Since Le’Veon joined the team, the Steelers have been “meh”-tacular on the road. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that Le’Veon sucks on the road:
Clearly, he doesn’t. He actually does better on the road than at home: More rushes, targets, yards, TDs, and awesomeness.
The Steelers are 7.5-point favorites implied to score 27.25 points against a Dolphins defense that is 18th in rush DVOA and just let DeMarco go off for 137 yards on 27 rushes and five receptions.
With slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of 26 to 30 percent on DK and FD, Bell is the chalk RB for Week 6. He’s the highest-rated DK and FD RB in both the Levitan and Sports Geek Models.
Adam Levitan and Kevin McClelland (The Sports Geek) were on the NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod this week: Listen to the episode for their takes on Bell and other RBs.
DeMarcolous
The Murracle in Tennessee continues. DeMarco is the RB2 with 24.46 DK and 20.66 FD PPG on 100 percent Consistency. He’s yet to score fewer than 21 DK and 16 FD points in any game this season.
Even as his salary has risen by $2,400 DK and $2,300 FD since the season started, DeMarcolous has continued to outperform salary-based expectations:
With 63.49 percent of his team’s carries and 16.53 percent of the targets over the last month, DeMarco should continue to roll. It doesn’t hurt that he leads the team in rushes (eight) and targets (two) inside the 10-yard line.
The Titans are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against the Browns, whose defense is 22nd in rush DVOA and 21st in pass DVOA against RBs. Averaging 18.6 rushes and 5.4 targets per game, DeMarco should have every opportunity to get his in Week 6.
He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of 26 to 30 and 21 to 25 percent on DK and FD. He’s not quite as chalky as Le’Veon, but 1) he maybe should be and 2) he’s a smidgen cheaper.
The Super Models
Bell is the guy for Levitan and The Sports Geek this week, but FantasyLabs co-founders Jonathan Bales and Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) like a few other RBs just a little bit more.
• Mark Ingram: $6,000 DK (RB11), $6,700 FD (RB20)
• Carlos Hyde: $5,100 DK (RB21), $7,300 FD (RB11)
• T.J. Yeldon: $4,400 DK (RB32), $6,700 FD (RB20)
Let’s do this.
Home is Where the Points Are
The Saints are at home! Let’s all run around naked to celebrate!
Not so fast . . .
The Superdome may be the Coors Field of daily fantasy football in that it juices offensive production, but Ingram has been fairly home-agnostic since becoming the lead back for the Saints in 2014:
As a daily fantasy sports asset, Ingram has consistently been ‘overpriced’ at home relative to his salary, production, and ownership on the road.
DK:
FD:
This isn’t to say that you can’t like Ingram — especially on FD, where he has a 98 percent Bargain Rating and is the highest-rated RB in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models — but you shouldn’t get excited about Ingram merely because the Saints are at home.
Instead, you can get excited about him because of the Panthers’ relative inability to stop lead RBs this year:
Ingram has a salary-based implied total of 9.19 FD points, but we’re projecting him for 15 points. Ingram might be an arbitrage candidate for the Big Three.
You Can Run, But You Can’t Hyde
The 49ers are 1-4 and undoubtedly suck. And yet they’re 18th in scoring and play at the fastest pace in the league. You might be surprised to learn that this season the 49ers are one of only a few teams to surpass their implied Vegas total in every game but one. In fact, the 49ers are fifth in the league with a 3.5-point actual/implied differential.
Where has all of that unexpected production gone? To Hyde, who’s RB7 with 19.46 DK and 17.36 FD PPG (on 80 percent Consistency) and RB3 with +9.52 DK and +8.68 FD Plus/Minus values. With the 49ers running more than they throw the ball, Hyde has been able to survive on volume and pace in a manner that few people expected.
Hyde is averaging 19 carries and 2.8 targets per game on the season, and he’s catching 92.9 percent of his targets. Over the last month, Hyde has led the 49ers in both carries and targets inside the 10-yard line. He’s tied for the NFL lead with six TDs rushing.
The 49ers are 7.5-point road underdogs implied to score a slate-low 18.25 points against the Bills, who have been treated harshly by opposing lead RBs:
With a Bargain Rating of 90 percent, Hyde is definitely one of those big-bodied grinders who presents nice DK value. He has FantasyLabs ownership projections of five to eight and two to four percent on DK and FD and is the highest-rated DK RB in the Bales Model.
The Time I Forced Myself to Write a Blurb on Yeldon
That time is now.
What Yeldon has going for him is his FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent, 93 percent DK Bargain Rating, and salary-based implied total of 8.75 points. Plus, he’s locked into the lead role and is getting more snaps and opportunities than Chris Ivory.
The Jaguars are 2.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 22.25 points against the Bears. It’s not great that the Jags have such a low total, but the game flow theoretically should benefit Yeldon as the team’s primary pass-catching back, and the Bears are 25th in rush DVOA.
This is something of a theme: The Bears haven’t been that good against lead backs this year. To wit:
If you’re looking for a cheap DK RB, Yeldon might be your guy. He’s the highest-rated DK RB in the CSURAM88 Model.
Up the Gut
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
Melvin Gordon: MG3 is a volume-bloated inefficient TD-reliant back . . . but opportunity is everything, and he’s gotten 81.52 percent of the team’s carries over the last month and 10 carries inside the red zone. The Chargers are at home and will likely run MG3 hard against the Broncos’ RB-friendly funnel defense.
C.J. Anderson: The Chargers defense is 19th in rush DVOA and allows the second-most fantasy points to RBs. CJA has had at least 15 opportunities in every game this season.
Arian Foster: That the Dolphins are 7.5-point underdogs might help Foster, who’s better as a receiver than a runner at this point of his career.
Jamaal Charles: JC Superstar is cheap on DK at $5,100 and has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of five to eight percent. If he gets even just 10 touches, he could return value against the Raiders.
Jonathan Stewart: He’s expected to return this week, and the Saints have allowed the most TDs in the league to RBs — even with the bye week.
Bobby Rainey: In his two weeks as the injury fill-in for Shane Vereen, Rainey has turned 15 targets and nine carries into 13 receptions and 139 scrimmage yards. Against the No. 1 pass DVOA of the Ravens defense, the Giants might elect to pass the ball more to Rainey and run it a little bit less with Orleans Darkwa and/or Rashad Jennings.
Justin Forsett: I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.
Todd Gurley: The Lions defense is 28th in rush DVOA, and in the last month Gurley has gotten 80 percent of the Rams’ carries plus 10 opportunities inside the 10-yard line.
Lamar Miller: Last year he got TDs but no touches; this year, he gets touches but no TDs; last week, neither; this week, both.
Jordan Howard: The Jaguars defense is 29th in rush DVOA. [Insert 1,000 more words.] That’s all.
Finally, there’s James White, and there’s “White as the primary pass-catching back with QB Tom Brady throwing him the ball.” We’re interested in the second guy, and we saw him last week.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 6 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s RBs for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
