The Week 6 NFL Dashboard
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Week 6: Quarterbacks
Do yourself a favor: Take 12 minutes and 22 seconds and watch this week’s QB Model Preview by Peter Jennings (CSURAM88).
As I pointed out in last week’s QB Breakdown — and as has been the case for weeks now — QB salaries have concurrently dropped on DraftKings and risen on FanDuel since the beginning of the season (per our Salary Change metric). What this means is that on a relative basis QBs are historically cheaper on DK than FD.
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models):
• On DK, 15 starting QBs — half of the full slate’s starting QBs — have experienced salary decreases of at least $500 over the last month. Only two starting QBs have seen their salaries increase by $500 in that time frame.
• On FD, the salary movement isn’t as imbalanced, but five starting QBs have seen price bumps of $500 in the last month and only two have seen price drops of that amount.
Per our Trends tool, starting DK QBs who have undergone a one-month Salary Change of at least -$500 have historically done better than the average starter (in both fantasy points and Plus/Minus). Similarly, starting FD QBs who have gained at least $500 in a one-month period have done worse than the average starter.
More texture:
• On DK, 11 starting QBs have Bargain Ratings higher than 80 percent. On FD, only one QB is in the top quintile.
• On DK, two QBs have top-12 salaries for the entire slate. That includes all other positions. On FD, six QBs have top-12 salaries.
These trans-platform pricing divergences are large. If I were Hamlet, I would say that they are “of great pith and moment.” But I’m not Hamlet so I’ll just say that they’re important and likely to be exploited by sharp daily fantasy sports players — people who, like Austin Powers, have the middle name “Arbitrage” . . .
Was that not his fake middle name?
The Big Seven
. . . which just happens to be what I call my d — . . . never mind. (I wish.)
This week, the same seven guys have the highest QB salaries at DK and FD. They’re not ordered the same on both sites, but they collectively form something of a consensus top tier. It’s very possible that these seven QBs will be in the majority of lineups for both cash games and guaranteed prize pools:
• Cam Newton: $8,100 DK (QB1), $8,900 FD (QB2)
• Tom Brady: $7,700 DK (QB3), $9,000 FD (QB1)
• Drew Brees: $7,900 DK (QB2), $8,500 FD (QB6)
• Aaron Rodgers: $7,300 DK (QB5), $8,800 FD (QB3)
• Ben Roethlisberger: $7,500 DK (QB4), $8,700 FD (QB4)
• Andrew Luck: $7,100 DK (QB6), $8,600 FD (QB6)
• Russell Wilson: $6,900 DK (QB7), $8,400 FD (QB7)
Here’s the question: Should these guys be in your cash and GPP lineups?
In the immortal words of Michael Hutchence, “We will make time stop.” Let’s do this.
Fig Newton
Cam has the opportunity to juice his stats at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football, where since 2014 visiting QBs have brought the pain:
You know what you’re getting with Cam. Last year as the NFL MVP, he was QB1 overall with 25.94 DK and 24.94 FD points per game (PPG). In his three full games this year, he’s averaged 24.37 DK and 23.03 FD PPG despite facing the Broncos and Vikings in two of those games.
In his 10 career games against New Orleans, Cam’s averaged 22.38 DK and 21.53 FD PPG. Over the last two years, he’s destroyed the Saints (per RotoViz):
And in New Orleans over the last two years:
Sorry, I should’ve given you some warning, because what I just showed you definitely is NSFW. That right there’s basically unadulterated DFS porn.
You probably already know this, but last year the Saints defense allowed an NFL-record 45 touchdowns passing and was dead last in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). This year the defense is 26th in total DVOA and pass DVOA with 312 yards passing and 21.10 DK and 18.60 FD PPG allowed to QBs. Teams are scoring against them on 47.7 percent of their drives (the league’s second-highest mark), and defensively the Saints are 29th, 27th, and 28th with 39.58 yards, 2.58 points, and 0.025 interceptions per drive (per FO).
Over the last 16 games, they’ve allowed +9.3 DK and +7.1 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to QBs, as well as a 55.62 percent success rate on pass attempts and a 27.1 percent TD rate in the red zone, all of which are slate-high marks. In every game this year, they’ve allowed either 300 yards or multiple TDs passing.
Currently, the Panthers are three-point favorites with an implied Vegas total of 28 points. Cam has a real chance of hitting his slate-high ceiling projection in this shootout. The Panthers are 1-4 and will likely use Cam in whatever way necessary to give themselves a chance to save their season with a victory.
For the QB position, Cam is relatively chalky with a FantasyLabs ownership projection of nine to 12 percent on DK and 13 to 16 percent on FD.
And he’s the highest-rated FD QB in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models. Yep, all four Pro Models.
“Fear is the Path to the Dark Side: Fear Leads to Anger, Anger Leads to Hate, Hate Leads to Victories”
After trying out a couple of other apprentices, the hooded Sith Lord finally has his helmeted Tomth Brader. In Week 5, they executed Order 66, as Brady passed for 406 yards and three TDs on his way to a QB2 finish with 32.6 DK and 29.6 FD points. Given that last year Brady was also the QB2 with an average of 23.42 DK and 21.95 FD PPG, I’d say that he’s basically the same ol’ Tom.
For the past half decade, Brady has been nearly unstoppable with a healthy Rob Gronkowski on the field:
In Week 5, we didn’t just see Tom’s empire strike back. We also saw Gronk’s force awaken. And it rekindled in us a new hope . . .
I gotta stop with these Star Wars puns.
Currently, the Patriots are slate-high 8.5-point home favorites implied to score 27.75 points against the Bengals. That’s great — but despite that positive data Brady has very low ratings in all of our Pro Player Models. Why is that?
Apparently the Bengals aren’t horrible on defense. They finished last season 10th in pass DVOA and ninth overall, and they also trailed only the Broncos and Seahawks in fewest points allowed to QBs with 15.6 DK and 14.8 FD PPG. Over the last 16 games, they’ve allowed -1.2 DK and -0.6 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to QBs as well as a stingy 45.01 percent success rate on pass attempts. And this year they’re allowing only 235.2 yards passing per game.
Still, last year isn’t this year. The defense is currently 16th in total DVOA and 17th in pass DVOA with a 6.0 percent sack rate that is just above average. The Bengals are also about average defensively in ranking 14th and 15th with 1.85 points and 0.87 INTs per drive. This defense seems rather mediocre.
And sometimes it seems worse. The Bengals allow the second-highest TD rate to QBs at 7.1 percent, and they’re also allowing +3.12 DK and +2.78 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to QBs with 60 percent Consistency. Per Pro Football Focus, not one Bengals cornerback ranks in the top 50 in coverage this year. They’ve allowed multiple TDs to every QB they’ve faced except for Ryan Tannehill, and not that long ago they gave up 312 yards and four TDs passing to a guy who a month before was battling Mark Sanchez for a starting job.
On the one hand, it’s never smart to be on a guy whom Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (The Sports Geek) aren’t looking to roster. On the other hand, we’re talking about Anakin F*cking Skywalker. Who’s really going to stop him?
Brady has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of five to eight percent on DK and FD. It’s probably reasonable to be underweight on him, but I wouldn’t fade him outright.
He’s at Home
I probably don’t need to give you the hard sell. You want to play Brees when he’s at home:
Especially this year:
Yeah, it’s a small sample, and those two games were against the weeping Raiders and Falcons, but let’s not pretend that the Panthers aren’t #awful — because you can take Bené Benwikere out of the secondary, but you can’t take the secondary out of the Benwikere, know what I’m saying?
The Panthers defense ranks 22nd and sixth in pass and rush DVOA. Brees is going to be all over that funnel defense like . . .
Hey, when a joke is good, it should be used more than once, especially if it gives me an opportunity to link to an earlier piece.
Brees is currently projected as QB3 with 23 DK and 20.9 FD points. He has slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of 13 to 16 percent.
Once it hits your lips, it’s so good.
Repetition . . . Repetition
Like Frodo after being stabbed with a Morgul-blade at the Tower of Amon Sûl, the Packers’ Ring-bearer doesn’t seem to be as strong as he once was. Jordy Nelson has returned, but Rodgers hasn’t. Sometimes having a Samwise is not enough.
I’m going to say this week a lot of what I said last week about A-Rod, because (sadly) it still applies.
Through a quarter of the season, Rodgers is averaging 219 yards passing per game — significantly lower than last year’s 238.8-yard average, the worst seasonal mark of his career. In the last 16 games, he has passed for 300 yards or four TDs just twice and surpassed 30 fantasy points just once.
There’s reason to be optimistic about Rodgers. The Packers are four-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against a Cowboys team with a defense that currently is 25th in pass DVOA, and not one of the Cowboys defensive backs is a top-30 cover man at his position (per PFF).
At the same time, there was reason to be optimistic about him last week against the Giants — and, as has been the case with Rodgers for a while, he didn’t reward that optimism. A-Rod always has QB1 overall upside in any given week. It’s just (apparently) getting harder for him to hit that upside.
He has a Brady-esque FantasyLabs ownership projection of five to eight percent. The Models don’t prefer Brady . . . but in his first game back from Mordor he just threw for 400 yards. Rodgers hasn’t done that in 29 games.
Rubberneck, Track No. 6
Big Ben is doing well. He’s currently the QB3 in PPG and the QB4 in Plus/Minus on both DK and FD:
You might think that perhaps Ben is crushing right now because he has starting running back Le’Veon Bell back. After all, in his two games this year with Bell, Ben has been beastly:
On the one hand, that production is unbelievable. On the other hand, it probably has nothing to do with Bell.
In his three-plus years in the NFL, Bell — despite being one of the best RBs in the league — has had no ‘real’ impact on Roethlisberger . . .
. . . or the Steelers . . .
If anything, Bell has had a slightly negative impact. Since 2013, the Steelers and Roethlisberger have scored more PPG without him than with him.
So what explains Roethlisberger’s 2016 productivity in general and two-game dominance in particular? He’s had some nice matchups, he has incredible home/road splits, and he’s played the last two games at home. His home/road splits this year are particularly notable (probably because of the small sample) . . .
. . . but they’ve been extreme for at least the last half decade:
Of course, you probably know that in Week 6 Roethlisberger is not at home. He’s on the road, where he morphs into something less than an average starting QB. In two road games this year, Ben has -2.47 DK and -3.37 FD Plus/Minus values. In the history of our entire database, Ben has -1.09 DK and -2.43 FD Plus/Minus values on 43.8 and 31.3 percent Consistency.
Does it even matter that the Steelers are second in the slate with a 27.25-point implied total and favored in Miami by 7.5 points? Or that last week the Dolphins at home allowed Marcus Mariota to score a slate-high four TDs? Or that the Dolphins defense is 21st in pass DVOA?
Roethlisberger is on the road. That’s all that matters.
You wouldn’t rest your genitals on a Venus flytrap, would you? I mean, it might turn out OK. It might not bite you. It might not cause any pain if it does bite. Who knows . . . you might even enjoy it. But no sane person would do it.
Roethlisberger is on the road. When he’s away, he knows in his heart there is a heaven.
There’s No Such Thing as Luck
Earlier in the piece, I pointed out the merits of starting Newton on the road against a divisional foe. In case you forgot, DFS QBs tend to perform worse against division rivals. The Superdome enhancement of productivity is an outlier to this larger trend. In general, the division/non-division split is always something to keep in mind, especially when it overlaps with the home/road split:
This week, the Colts are three-point road underdogs implied to score only 21.5 points against the Texans, whose defense is ninth in pass DVOA and has allowed over the last 16 games -2.6 DK and FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to QBs (the slate’s third- and second-lowest marks).
This season, the Texans have allowed three TDs passing in five games. They are eighth in the NFL with an 8.3 percent sack rate. They’re defensively second and ninth with 23.44 yards and 1.56 points allowed per drive. Over the last 16 games, they’ve allowed a 43.56 percent success rate on pass attempts and a 14.66 percent TD rate inside the red zone, the fourth- and third-lowest marks in the slate.
In their three 2016 home games, the Texans haven’t been kind to opposing QBs:
No QB has scored 20 fantasy points against the Texans this season. Luck could change that in Week 6 — he’s DK QB7 and FD QB9 — but, um, remember what I said earlier about Venus flytraps?
For what it’s worth: Our Pro Models dislike Luck almost as much as Brady.
He’s More Than a Volleyball With a Handprint for a Face
This week, Wilson has the opportunity to ball out against a #notgood Falcons defense that ranks 24th in pass DVOA and 26th, 26th, and 27th with 6.3 plays, 36.93 points, and 2.41 points allowed per drive. To opposing NFL QBs, the Falcons have given up an NFL-high 14 TDs passing.
In only one game this season have the Falcons allowed fewer than 275 yards and three TDs passing — last week, when they played against Denver backup QB Paxton Lynch in his first NFL start. Otherwise, they’ve allowed opposing QBs to railroad them with an average of 332.25 yards and 3.25 TDs passing over four games, good for 27.98 DK and 27.23 FD PPG.
Wilson has been slowed this season by ankle and knee injuries, but he is coming off a Week 5 bye and should be healthy and prepared for the Falcons, who are second and first in most DK and FD points allowed to opposing QBs.
The Seahawks are six-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points. It’s possible that the Seahawks decide to take the air out of the volleyball with the run game — the Falcons defense is 24th in run DVOA — but so far teams have predominantly attacked the Falcons with the pass. Given the manner in which the Seahawks unleashed Wilson in Week 4 against the Jets — he was DK QB3 and FD QB4 with 309 yards and three TDs passing — he could be in for another big week.
The Super Models
Cam is the guy with the prettiest face on FD, but on DK the No. 1 spot in the Pro Models is occupied by two other QBs:
• Carson Palmer: $6,000 DK (QB14), $7,700 FD (QB13)
• Tyrod Taylor: $5,300 DK (QB25), $7,800 FD (QB11)
Let’s do it.
The Major Was a Lady Suffragette
This week, Palmer faces a Jets defense that is dead last in pass DVOA. Do I really need to give any more analysis?
The Cardinals are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 27 points. In general, it’s rarely a bad strategy to target home QBs in high-scoring games.
The Jets are allowing QBs to score the fourth-most DK and FD PPG in the NFL:
Only one starting QB to face the Jets this year has scored fewer than 20 DK and 18 FD points — Kansas City Jesus, of whom almost nothing should ever be expected.
Playing on Monday night, Palmer has a top-five projection on both sites and makes for an intriguing play in the 15-game Thursday slate. He’s currently the highest-rated DK QB in the Bales, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models.
Cherry Picking the Data
The Bills are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 25.75 points against the 49ers. On the one hand, the 49ers defense is 13th in pass DVOA, which is pretty decent, and it’s allowing only +0.02 DK and -0.06 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to starting QBs. Based on the data, the 49ers don’t seem eminently exploitable.
On the other hand, I’m going to cherry pick the sh*t out of that data. In Week 1, the 49ers faced the nonentity that is Case Keenum. In Week 2, they got destroyed by Cam, who threw for 353 yards and four TDs, added 37 yards on the ground, and finished the slate as the QB1. In Week 3, Wilson played with an injured ankle and then exited the game early with a sprained knee. In his place, rookie backup Trevone Boykin completed seven of nine passes for 65 yards and a touchdown. In Week 4, the 49ers allowed rookie Dak Prescott to be a borderline QB1 with his first multi-TD game as a passer. And in Week 5, they faced Cardinals backup QB Drew Stanton, who 1) sucks and 2) still threw two TDs.
If we filter out the nonrepresentative Keenum, the injured Wilson, and the backup Stanton, then we are left with just Cam and Dak. The sample is small, but Tyrod is comparable to them as a runner, and . . .
The fast pace of the 49ers offense should afford the Bills extra opportunities, and Tyrod has literally a 100 percent DK Bargain Rating.
He has a FantasyLabs ownership projection of only two to four percent and is the highest-rated DK QB in the CSURAM88 Model. He has a salary-based implied total of 14.61 DK points. In the three games since former offensive coordinator Greg Roman left the team, Tyrod has averaged 16.60 DK PPG. And even though the 49ers have been supremely advantaged in the QBs they’ve faced, they still have allowed 17.86 DK PPG to the QB position.
If you are looking for a cheap DK QB who won’t sabotage your lineup in cash games, Tyrod could be the guy.
Divisional Road Games
Cam and Luck aren’t the only road QBs playing against divisional opponents this week:
• Carson Wentz: $6,000 DK (QB14), $7,500 FD (QB19)
• Alex Smith: $5,700 DK (QB20), $6,800 FD (QB27)
• Trevor Siemian: $5,200 DK (QB27), $7,300 FD (QB21)
Let’s storm through this.
#QBWentz
Wentz has been fairly impressive. He’s quarterbacking a team that is 3-1 and third in the NFL in scoring. At the same time, he has experienced slate-high salary hikes of $1,000 on DK and $2,500 on FD since Week 1, and he’s averaging just 18.42 DK and 17.67 FD PPG. The Eagles are two-point favorites against the Redskins, whose defense is 16th against the pass and 32nd against the run. Wentz might be on the wrong side of that funnel.
Not the Longtime Tight End
There’s not a lot of value on FD, but Smith is cheap, coming off the bye, and the No. 2 FD QB in the Bales Model. He may be on the road against a divisional foe, but at least that foe is the Raiders, whose defense is 29th in DVOA. Additionally, this season the Raiders are allowing 25.88 DK and 23.48 FD PPG to QBs, the highest marks in the league. As I said earlier, almost nothing should ever be expected of KC Jesus, but it won’t take a miracle for him to hit his salary-based implied total of 14.31 FD points. Every QB to play the Raiders this year except for Marcus Mariota has finished with at least 22 FD points.
Don’t Get Cute
Per the FantasyLabs News feed (available at the bottom of this article), Siemian should start on Thursday against the Chargers unless he suffers a setback. On the one hand, he’s cheap on DK, where the Chargers have allowed 22.94 PPG (the league’s fifth-highest mark). Plus, the Chargers are now without lockdown cornerback Jason Verrett. On the other hand . . .
At the most, Siemian is a GPP play.
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way:
Matt Ryan: Over the last month, the Falcons have outperformed their implied Vegas total by an obscene average of 11.8 PPG. He has a tough matchup in Seattle against the defense with the No. 1 pass DVOA, but he (aside from Brady) is still the QB1 in PPG. With a 75 percent FD Bargain Rating and a FantasyLabs ownership projection of zero to one percent, he seems morbidly alluring, sort of like Scarlett Johansson’s Black Widow.
Brock Osweiler: The Texans are at home, the Colts defense is 30th in pass DVOA, and he has two of the best wide receivers in the league. CSURAM88 mentioned on this week’s NFL Fantasy Flex pod that he’s a fan of the Osweiler-Will Fuller stack.
Brian Hoyer: The journeyman has three straight games of 3oo yards, two TDs, and not-Jay Cutler-ness.
Colin Kaepernick: He’s a Chip Kelly QB at $5,000 on DK. This year, Blaine Gabbert has averaged 15.64 DK points against the entire NFC West, last year’s NFC champion, and God’s favorite team. Against the NFC West in particular, Gabbert averaged a -0.06 DK Plus/Minus. All other QBs have averaged a -0.39 DK Plus/Minus. At his price, Gabbert wasn’t horrible this year. Kaepernick might not be either.
Finally, Mariota the Maserati: He was the FD QB1 last week, and this week he’s at home facing a Cleveland defense that is 28th in DVOA. Per the Cars, “Let the good times roll.”
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 6 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s QBs for yourself.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
