The Week 5 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 5 Tight Ends
This week isn’t all that different than last week . . .
To Gronk or Not to Gronk
Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski‘s situation improves each week the way a child grows each year: [Insert here something that makes the previous sentence make sense.] See what I mean?
He/we finally will have QB Tom Brady back, but Brady’s presence doesn’t change these two facts:
- Gronk’s snap count and usage are hard to determine.
- The Pats probably won’t need many snaps out of him in order to defeat the Browns.
Given that Gronk has failed to show us anything to this point, using him in cash games is a really risky tactic, but he could be used in tournament lineups as a part of a Pats stack.
He’s now $900 and $1,300 cheaper on DraftKings and FanDuel than he was when Week 1 daily fantasy sports salaries were released. The Pats have excellent Vegas data, and Gronk isn’t the most expensive TE on the slate. It might be awhile till we get this GPP opportunity again.
The Usual Suspects
If you’re not playing Gronk, there’s a decent chance that you’re thinking about playing one of these next three guys.
For Kids Who Can’t Reed Good
Jordan Reed paid off last week. This week, though, his matchup is less than generous. The Ravens defense (per Football Outsiders) is third in pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against TEs and is yet to allow a touchdown to the position.
The Ravens haven’t faced an onslaught of stud TEs, but (per our Trends tool) they’ve been able to bury the Plus/Minus of starting TEs they’ve played:
Reed is second among TEs with 35 targets and leads “the Reedskins” with 23.29 percent of the team’s targets and three opportunities inside the 10-yard line (per Bryan Mears’ Week 5 Market Share Report).
Given the volume that he gets, Reed is almost immune to bad matchups — but if you don’t like rostering expensive TEs on the road with bad matchups and implied Vegas totals of only 21 points, then you probably don’t want any piece of Reed in Week 5.
What I Just Said, Basically
Greg Olsen has more targets this season than Odell Beckham, Larry Fitzgerald, and Brandon Marshall have. His 18.63 DK and 14.88 FD points easily lead all TEs. He’s basically the Norse gawd of fantasy football.
But he’ll be without QB Cam Newton this week, he plays on Monday, and, like Reed, he has a bad matchup. The Buccaneers are yet to allow a TD to a TE, and their defense ranks sixth in pass DVOA against the position.
It’s hard to look at a TE who averages 10 targets per game and think, “I better not roster him,” but Olsen has a lot going against him this week.
Finally, Maybe
Delanie Walker is priced as the TE4 at $4,700 DK and $6,400 FD, and he has a good matchup. It’s not ideal that the Titans are implied to score only 20 points on the road, but the Dolphins defense ranks 30th against TEs in pass DVOA and has been destroyed by starting TEs (aside from Jimmy Graham in Week 1, when he was on a snap count):
Walker’s Consistency of only 33.3 percent this season doesn’t breed confidence, but he’s a guy without a true No. 1 wide receiver on his team, and he’s averaging 6.3 targets per game.
With the substantial discount that he offers on the three TEs ahead of him, Walker’s rosterable if you like paying up for TEs. His FantasyLabs ownership projection is five to eight percent on DK and FD (available in our Player Models):
The Dumpoff Pass
Turn around, I’m throwing the ball.
• Hunter Henry: The injured Antonio Gates will attempt to play in Week 5, but even if he does Henry is still a cheap talented rookie going against a Raiders defense that last year allowed the second-most TDs to TEs.
• Zach Ertz: He’s playing against a Lions team that has allowed literally 18 TDs to TEs over the last 20 games.
• Martellus Bennett: The Browns allow the most receptions to TEs and Gronk is still questionable.
• Gary Barnidge: He has 13 targets, 12 receptions, 123 yards, and a two-point conversion in two games with Cody Kessler starting at QB for the Browns.
• Zach Miller: WR Kevin White is back on the Injured Reserve, and Miller is now the No. 2 receiver for the Bears once again.
• Jacob Tamme: Second on the Falcons in targets.
• Will Tye: He was a TE1 last year when he had the job to himself.
• Richard Rodgers: He’s a TD producer who looks like he could get almost all of the TE snaps this week.
• C.J. Uzomah: The Cowboys are third in the league in fantasy points allowed to TEs, Tyler Eifert still might not be ready to return to game action, and Uzomah is averaging a(n almost) palatable 5.5 targets and 36 yards per game.
Finally, Kyle Rudolph is currently one of the best TEs in the NFL, but he’s facing a Texans team allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to TEs. Tread lightly.
Positional Breakdowns
Be sure to read the other Week 4 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
