The Week 5 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 5: Running Backs
In the Week 4 RB Breakdown, I said this:
A month ago, Dwayne Washington was a guy who was hoping to make the Lions’ roster. Last week, he led the team in carries and yards rushing. He’s officially a daily fantasy sports option.
Welcome to Week 4. If you’re reading this, you’re still alive.
As fate would have it, Washington exited last week’s game in the second quarter with a sprained foot and ankle. He’s now officially doubtful for this week and expected not to play.
And this is only Week 5. If in another couple of weeks I’m no longer writing the positional breakdowns, there’s a non-zero chance it will be because I’m the starting RB for the Lions.
It’s my Ace Ventura-like spin move that caught their eye.
The DK and FD Valuations
As was the case last week, DraftKings RBs are inordinately expensive. FanDuel RBs, very cheap.
Of the DK RBs with the 12 highest salaries, not one has a Bargain Rating above 50. Among the RBs with the 24 highest salaries, there are 10 guys with Bargain Ratings no greater than 10 percent. There are only nine with Bargain Ratings greater than 20 percent.
As was also the case last week, not every DK RB is expensive. The big grinders who don’t catch passes seem to be especially cheap on DK (which should probably be expected, given the point-per-reception scoring). And (perhaps surprisingly) there are also some cheap pass-catching DK backs in the bottom half of the salary scale, which could come in handy if you are looking for a PPR-specific punt play. A lot of guys are historically priced up on DK, but there’s still some value at RB in particular niches.
On FD, the value is much easier to find. Four of the five RBs with the highest salaries have Bargain Ratings above 90 percent. As Freddie Mercury once told the girls who make the rockin’ world go round, “Get on your bikes and ride.”
The Big Three
This week, the same three guys occupy the top salary spots on DK and FD:
• David Johnson (RB1): $7,900 DK, $9,000 FD
• Le’Veon Bell (RB2): $7,500 DK, $8,600 FD
• DeMarco Murray (RB3): $7,200 DK, $8,400 FD
I’m sure that you’ll notice that those three big-bodied pass-catching three-down workhorses have little in common.
The Big Johnson
Johnson leads DK and FD RBs with 23.1 and 19.9 projected points. His floor is unrivaled because of his ability as a receiver. Through four weeks, he has a 12.57 percent market share of team targets (per Bryan Mears’ Week 5 Market Share Report), good for 21 targets, which he’s turned into 210 yards. He’s basically a young Matt Forte, except he’s bigger, more athletic, and a touchdown producer. At 224 lbs., Johnson (per Player Profiler) has an elite 95th percentile SPARQ-x score, which he’s used across 20 career games to score 16 TDs . . . even though he’s started only nine games.
This week, the Cardinals face a 49ers defense that this year is mediocre against the run (19th per Football Outsiders) and over the last three weeks has allowed Ezekiel Elliott to rush for 138 yards and a touchdown, Christine Michael to rush for 106 yards and two TDs, and even f*cking Fozzy Whittaker to rush for 100 yards on 16 carries. What do you think will happen when one of the most complete backs in football gets 20 opportunities? — especially when that guy is second in the NFL with nine rushes inside the 10-yard line?
Johnson is likely to be super chalky as a Thursday-only play — some people will be in that slate solely to play him — but he deserves the ownership. With Carson Palmer officially out this week, Dojo could be featured even more than he usually is.
Did I just recycle most of my Week 4 Johnson blurb? Yeah. And I’m going to keep on doing it till the thesis for investing in him changes. That‘s how consistent he is. He’s currently the No. 1 RB in the Sports Geek Player Model for both DK and FD.
Ding, Ding: Round 2
Even without scoring a TD, Le’Veon dominated last week with a position-high 178 yards from scrimmage. He relegated DeAngelo Williams to only five opportunities (Le’Veon had 24), and he played on 52 of 59 snaps. Considering that Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Antonio Brown played on 55 and 52 snaps, you can see how integral Le’Veon was to the team’s plans. He’s 100 percent back.
Since 2014, no starting RB has scored more fantasy points per game (PPG) than Le’Veon (per our Trends tool):
He has a video game Plus/Minus and the type of PPR Consistency that could make Adrian Peterson want to retire.
The Steelers are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 27.75 points against the Jets. On the one hand, it’s great for Le’Veon that the Steelers are big home favorites. In theory, he should get a lot of opportunities.
On the other hand, practice is different than theory. Per Football Outsiders, the Jets defense is third in run Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 31st in pass DVOA. That’s basically the definition of a funnel defense. We’ve just seen the Steelers put up lots of points without needing to give Le’Veon the ball a ton. It’s very possible that the Steelers decide to air it out for the second straight game with the best home QB in the NFL.
But even if that happens, Bell should still be involved as a receiver. The last time he didn’t get at least 20 opportunities in a game that he didn’t leave early because of a season-ending injury, LeGarrette Blount was a Steeler. That was, like, at least 10 lbs. (of weed) ago.
His FantasyLabs ownership projections of 21 to 25 percent on DK and 17 to 20 percent on FD are high — and our ownership projections have been very accurate so far — but his Le’Veownership probably won’t be much higher than it should be.
The Roadblock
Since April, I’ve basically considered DeMarco to be a roadblock to be easily hurtled on Derrick Henry‘s path to RB greatness. I’ve been wrong. (And so was Chip Kelly, by the way. Truly astounding is the extent to which last season he transformed DeMarco’s milkshake to liquid sh*t.)
DeMarco’s 2016 bounceback campaign is nothing short of a Murracle, know what I’m saying? (I’m tempted to end the entire piece with that line. I really won’t be able to top it.)
Through four games, he’s DK RB2 and FD RB1 in PPG:
This week the Titans are 3.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 20 points against the Dolphins. Ordinarily, that Vegas data wouldn’t engender enthusiasm, but the Dolphins over the last 16 games have allowed +2.7 DK and +2.5 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to RBs, so the matchup is favorable.
Additionally, DeMarco doesn’t need his team to score many points for him to get his. The 1-3 Titans are 31st in scoring with an average of 15.5 PPG. They’re yet to score more than 20 points in a game. Even with that, DeMarco is averaging 16.5 rushes and 4.75 receptions for 124 yards and 1.25 TDs from scrimmage per game.
On the season, DeMarco has played an impressive 76.49 percent of the offensive snaps, earning 61.68 percent of the rushes along the way as well as all seven of the team’s carries inside the 10-yard line. That’s especially impressive considering that he has as a backup a 6’3″ and 247-lb. manimal who seemingly was born to be a TD vulture as a rookie.
Like Johnson and Le’Veon, DeMarco has proven himself to be amazingly reliable in the face of negative game flow because of his receiving ability. He currently has been targeted on 15.79 percent of the team’s pass attempts — second on the team. He is actually currently the most productive receiver on the team, leading the Titans with 19 receptions and two TDs receiving and pitching in 156 yards via the pass. And his TDs as a receiver aren’t a fluke: He leads the team with three targets inside the 10.
Sporting eight DK and nine FD Pro Trends, DeMarco is second on the slate with a projection of 20.6 DK and 17.5 FD points and 13 to 16 percent ownership, making him a really intriguing pivot play away from Johnson and Le’Veon in guaranteed prize pools.
You don’t need to roster him — there’s a decent amount of value at the position in this slate — but putting DeMarco in your lineups has been a profitable move each week this season.
The Injury Replacements
This week there are a few injury replacements who rate very highly in our models. Naturally, they have FantasyLabs ownership projections that are among the highest in the slate.
• DeAndre Washington: $3,400 DK, $4,700 FD
• Jerick McKinnon: $4,000 DK, $6,200 FD
• Jordan Howard: $5,200 DK, $7,200 FD
Let’s survey these value-infused saviors of lineup flexibility.
The Red Raider Earns His Black and Silver Stripes
Teasing Latavius Murray has turf toe and has been ruled out for Week 5, per the FantasyLabs News feed (available at the bottom of this article). In his place, Washington is expected to lead the backfield.
An underrated prospect — Washington had 1,877 yards and 16 TDs from scrimmage as a senior at Texas Tech and earned a strong 82nd percentile SPARQ-x score with his combine performance — the fifth-round rookie has been on the edge of fantasy relevance since the season started, averaging 46 yards on 5.75 carries and 1.5 targets per game. Now, he’s 100 percent relevant.
With FantasyLabs ownership projections of 26-30 percent on DK and 21-25 percent on FD, Washington is in a prime spot to capitalize on Murray’s absence. The Raiders are 3.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.5 points against the Chargers, who are currently allowing the third-most fantasy points in the league to RBs and have been destroyed by lead RBs through four games:
Washington almost certainly won’t have the backfield to himself — professional thorns-in-the-side Jalen Richard and Jamize Olawale will likely steal targets and goal-line touches — but Washington has a golden silver-and-black opportunity to show that his top-10 marks in Production Premium and Breakaway Rate (Player Profiler metrics) aren’t a fluke.
Washington’s currently the No. 1 FD RB in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
“Jerk McKinnon” is His SNL Celebrity Jeopardy Name
In his two 2016 games without Peterson, the heir (of a shyness that is criminally vulgar) has done well (per the RotoViz Game Splits app):
There’s really not much more you can ask for than 20.5 opportunities per game.
Skinny Refrigerator Perry impersonator Matt Asiata is a nuisance, stealing at least seven opportunities per game, but McKinnon is actually holding his own with Asiata inside the 10:
The 4-0 Vikings are six-point home favorites implied to score 23.25 points against a J.J. Watt-less Texans team whose defense is 30th in rush DVOA and fifth in pass DVOA.
Here’s what Jerk Ferguson’s going to look like partying with that beer funnel of a defense:
Against lead backs, the Texans this year have gotten torn up from the floor up:
McKinnon currently has a FantasyLabs ownership percentage of 21-25 percent on DK and 13 to 16 percent on FD. A lot of people are expecting Jerk to put his 100th percentile SPARQ-x score to good use. He’s currently the No. 1 DK RB in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
Two First Names, Both Alike in Dignity
Everybody loves a guy with two first names, especially this guy with two thumbs.
Is it OK if I basically plagiarize what I said last week? Great, thanks.
Howard is now the lead back as his competition for touches is either injured (Jeremy Langford and Ka’Deem Carey) or old, new to the team, and maybe dead (Joique Bell).
[Insert here “poultry”/”paltry” salary pun.] Like I said, that’s chicken money.Since becoming the team’s lead back in the second half of Week 3, JoHo has been solid:
With five targets per game as the lead back, Howard should be able to withstand negative game flow, which might come in handy this week, as the Bears are 4.5-point road underdogs implied to score 21.5 points against the Colts.
That doesn’t seem like a great setup for Howard, but it’s actually pretty good. The Colts are 26th in rush DVOA and (of course) have been shredded like cheap chicken Eddie Van Halen’s guitar by lead RBs this season:
With FantasyLabs ownership percentages of 21-25 percent on DK and 17-20 percent on FD, Howard is the No. 1 DK RB in the Levitan Model.
Up the Gut
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
• Melvin Gordon: MG3 is a three-down pass-catching workhorse who leads the league in TDs rushing and carries inside the 10, and he’s facing a Raiders defense that’s 29th in rush DVOA.
• C.J. Anderson: The Broncos are 5.5-point home favorites facing a Falcons team that has allowed +6.70 DK and +7.26 FD Plus/Minus values to other big-bodied RBs with pass-catching skills this season.
• Orleans Darkwa: Giants starter Rashad Jennings is expected to miss Week 5, and as the lead back over the last two weeks Darkwa has averaged 11 rushes for 50.5 yards and one TD per game.
• Bobby Rainey: With Shane Vereen out, Rainey looks like the Giants’ pass-catching back for the foreseeable future, and last week in that role he had nine targets and four rushes, which he converted to seven receptions and 65 scrimmage yards.
• Terrance West: Last week, West rushed 21 times for 113 yards and a TD in his first outing as the workhorse, and this week he faces a Redskins funnel defense that is last in the league in rush DVOA.
• Theo Riddick: Dw. Washington is expected not to play this week for the Lions, and Riddick is averaging 9.75 carries and 6.5 targets per game.
• Zach Zenner: If Washington misses the game, ZZ Top would likely have the opportunity to put his 95th percentile SPARQ-x score to use as the team’s big-bodied bruiser.
• Todd Gurley: Who else is going to touch the ball for the Rams against a Bills defense that has allowed big games to Da. Johnson and Forte?
• Lamar Miller: Last year he got TDs but no touches; this year, he gets touches but no TDs; this week, neither.
• Duke Johnson: He’s averaging nine rushes, 7.5 targets, and 78.5 scrimmage yards per game with Cody Kessler as the starting QB, and this week the Browns will probably need to throw against the Patriots.
Finally, as far as Blount and James White go, it’s at least possible that Tom Brady‘s return might be, you know, a good thing.
Positional Breakdowns
Be sure to read the other Week 5 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
