The Week 5 NFL Dashboard
For the rest of our positional breakdowns and team previews, visit our NFL dashboard.
Week 5: Quarterbacks
In last week’s QB Breakdown, I highlighted two distinct pricing trends that sharp daily fantasy sports players have the ability to arbitrage:
- DraftKings QBs are now significantly cheaper than they were at the beginning of the season (per our Salary Change metric). Also (and independently), FanDuel QBs are significantly more expensive than they were when the season started.
- On a relative basis, DK QBs are historically cheaper than FD QBs (per our Bargain Rating). Some FD QBs can still be rostered at a relative discount — but not many of them.
Let’s look at each of these pricing trends briefly.
DK and FD Salary Change
Only three starting DK QBs have salaries higher now than they were in Week 1. That’s obscene. As a point of comparison, 15 starting DK QBs have had salary decreases of at least $500 over the last month. That’s obscene. On FD, only five starting QBs are cheaper now than they were a month ago, and not one of them has seen a price decline of more than $500. What’s more — literally — is that 11 starting FD QBs have experienced salary escalation of at least $500 since Week 1.
These changes are not insignificant. Per our Trends tool, starting DK QBs who have undergone a one-month Salary Change of at least -$500 have historically done better than they otherwise would:
Similarly, starting FD QBs who have gained at least $500 in a one-month period have done worse than usual:
Historically, the independent pricing dynamics that we see on DK and FD actually matter.
DK and FD Bargain Rating
And, of course, the cross-platform dynamics also matter. With our Bargain Rating, we can look at historical DK and FD pricing patterns to determine how discounted a player is on one site given his price on the other site. It’s a powerful metric in that it can help you discover where to gain exposure to which players, and it’s strongly linked to player production as represented by our Plus/Minus metric.
Right now, DK QBs are heavily discounted in comparison to FD QBs. Out of the guys with top-12 DK QB salaries, only three have Bargain Ratings lower than 50 percent. On FD, eight QBs with top-12 salaries have Bargain Ratings lower than 50 percent.
On DK, three QBs have 99 percent Bargain Ratings. On FD, the highest QB Bargain Rating is 86 percent.
The following information might give the clearest picture of all: On DK, two QBs have top-10 salaries for the entire slate. That includes all other positions. On FD, five QBs have top-10 salaries overall.
On DK, almost everyone is relatively cheap. On FD, you really need to hunt for value this week.
The Big Three
This week, the same three guys (in the same order) have the highest QB salaries at DK and FD:
• Cam Newton: $7,900 DK, $9,300 FD
• Aaron Rodgers: $7,700 DK, $9,100 FD
• Tom Brady: $7,500 DK, $8,700 FD
Newton is off the board because he’s been declared out for this week’s Monday game, but let’s talk about his backup, who now provides some nice value.
Sham Newton
I’m joking. I love Cam. Anyway . . .
There’s no denying that the matchup is nice. When the Buccaneers this season have played against QBs other than the injury-impacted Trevor Siemian and bottom-dwelling Case Keenum, they’ve been terrifically exploitable:
The Bucs defense is 27th in pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) per Football Outsiders, allowing the fifth-most touchdowns passing in the league.
All of which is to say that backup QB Derek Anderson is a guy to consider seriously. Over the last three years, he’s played a substantial role in three games (mopping up in seven others). Per the RotoViz Game Splits app:
The sample is small, but Anderson has done well in relief of Newton and he’s only $5,500 on DK and $5,000 on FD.
“Do Not Be Hasty”
Back in the first half of the 2000s, you never saw the Lord of the Rings series and so you never heard Fangorn the Ent admonish the hobbits Merry and Pippin not to be hasty.
So I’m telling you now: Do not be hasty.
It’s hard to hold Rodgers’ 2015 performance against him — especially since he wasn’t really that horrible for a guy who lost a top-five wide receiver and whose starting running back ate Eddie Lacy.
It’s also easy to be enthusiastic about Rodgers now. He appears to have gotten his groove back in Week 3 with a four-TD performance, and he’s currently QB4 and QB2 with 23.13 DK and 22.8 FD points per game (PPG). And the Packers are 7.5-point home favorites implied to score 27.5 points against a Giants team whose defense has allowed +4.3 DK and +3.7 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to QBs over the last 16 games.
Do not be hasty.
Rodgers’ four-TD game came against a Lions defense that is last in the league in pass DVOA and allowing the second-most fantasy points to QBs this year. He’s averaging 205.7 yards passing per game through three contests. Last year he averaged 238.8 yards per game, surpassing 300 yards only thrice. It’s been 10 games since he’s reached that threshold.
And the Giants this season are not an utter abomination in pass defense, ranking 23rd per FO. They’re yet to allow a QB to pass for 300 yards, throw three TDs, or score 20 fantasy points. To QBs they’re allowing only 14.8 fantasy PPG.
A-Rod could finish this week as the top fantasy QB. But in the last 16 games, he has surpassed 30 fantasy points only once. He carries a lot of risk. At the same time, he’s the highest-rated QB in the CSURAM88 Player Model for both DK and FD — and Labs co-founder Peter Jennings doesn’t exactly suck at NFL DFS.
Welcome Back
Like Johnny from that horrible ’90s song, Tom is angry. He wants to kill you. He wants to blow you . . . away. And by “you,” I mean Commissioner Roger Goodell.
Also, what was going on in the ’90s with alternative female musicians and their teeth? Jewel, Tori Amos, Poe, the Sneaker Pimps? Yeah, I just watched about an hour’s worth of music videos on YouTube. What’s your point?
Brady is the chalk du jour. In our Player Models, he has slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of 17 to 20 percent on DK and 13 to 16 percent on FD — and as Labs co-founder Jonathan Bales has recently pointed out, our ownership projections have been on the money.
The Patriots are slate-high 10.5-point favorites with a slate-high implied Vegas total of 28.5 points. They’re on the road, but they’re facing an 0-4 Browns team whose defense last year was 27th against the pass (per FO) and this year is allowing the third-most touchdowns passing in the league.
Starting DK QBs with comparable implied totals:
Brady with a comparable implied total:
Brady favored and with a comparable implied total:
Brady against a non-division opponent, favored, and with a comparable implied total:
The Patriots are massive favorites, so it’s possible that they could rely more on LeGarrette Blount to run out the clock — but over the last decade of his career Brady has actually been better in games with comparable spreads than in other situations, even when he’s been on the road:
You don’t have to play Brady in cash games this week, but a lot of smart people probably will be, if the Week 5 Fantasy Flex pod is any indication.
The Minimalists
As always, there are a number of QBs priced at $5,000 DK and/or $6,000 FD. We’ve already touched on Anderson. Here are the others:
• Blaine Gabbert: $5,000 DK, $6,500 FD
• Brian Hoyer: $5,500 DK, $6,000 FD
• Cody Kessler: $5,000 DK, $6,400 FD
• Case Keenum: $5,000 DK, $6,600 FD
• Drew Stanton: $5,000 DK, $6,300 FD
Let’s waste some time.
The Golden Casket
On the one hand, Gabbert hasn’t been horrible this year:
On the other hand, this week the 49ers are four-point underdogs implied to score only 19.75 points against a Cardinals team whose defense over the last 16 games has allowed -1.8 DK and -1.7 FD Opponent Plus/Minus values to opposing QBs. This year the Cardinals defense is sixth in pass DVOA and is yet to allow a QB to score 20 fantasy points — a total Gabbert doesn’t surpass very often.
He’s Not Jay Cutler
Since last season, Hoyer has +3.04 DK and +2.36 FD Plus/Minus values. This year he’s had 300-plus yards and two touchdowns in both games filling in for Cutler, who has +0.89 DK and -0.11 FD Plus/Minus values as the QB for head coach John Fox. Cutler is still day-to-day. If he doesn’t start, Hoyer could easily exceed value against a Colts defense ranked 29th in pass DVOA. He’s currently the highest-rated FD QB in the Bales Model with an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
A Good-Looking Rook
I’m not actually recommending that you play Kessler. He’s failed to meet salary-based expectations in both of his starts. I just want to remind you that he’s completing 67.1 percent of his passes — an incredible mark for a rookie — and he’ll likely be forced to throw the ball a lot against a Patriots defense that is 26th in pass DVOA. The Browns could lose by two TDs but Kessler could get a couple of scores along the way.
This Blurb Isn’t What You Think It Is
Kalifornia Keenum is averaging 206.3 yards and one TD passing per game this year. The Rams are 30th in scoring. Keenum’s exceeded 15 fantasy points in only one contest, and he’s facing the Bills, who have allowed a QB to score 15 fantasy points just once. All of which is a roundabout way of saying that you might want to target Keenum with the Bills defense, which has +5.44 DK and +5.67 FD Plus/Minus values on 75 percent Consistency this season.
Another Backup
Stanton looks likely to play in place of Carson Palmer (concussion) this week. In the eight 2014 games he started as Palmer’s backup, he surpassed 300 yards passing only once and averaged fewer than one TD per game — but in all fairness he played some tough opponents: 49ers (fourth in pass DVOA), Broncos (fifth), Lions (eighth), Seahawks (third), and Chiefs (13th). This week, he gets to play in a fast-paced game against a mediocre 49ers defense that last week allowed a Dez Bryant-less Dak Prescott to complete 23 of 32 passes for 245 yards and two TDs. Even though he’s playing in the Thursday game, Stanton seems likely to have extremely low ownership.
He’s an undeniably risky play, but having just a little tournament exposure to a low-owned Thursday QB is what some people might do in the name of contrarianism.
“But It Is Not This Day”
Falcons QB Matt Ryan is currently the QB1 with 29.65 DK and 27.40 FD PPG. He’s one of only a few QBs to have 100 percent Consistency. In the first four weeks of the season, he’s been QB6, QB2, QB8, and QB1. He’s basically been the Brady who got to play in Weeks 1-4.
But in Week 5, the Falcons are 5.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 20.75 points against an undefeated Broncos team whose defense has allowed only two TDs passing all year. With a full-on funnel defense, the Broncos are third in pass and 23rd in run DVOA. The Falcons will be highly incentivized to take the ball out of Ryan’s hands and run relentlessly with perhaps the most well-rounded duo of RBs in the NFL.
Ryan is still priced as the FD QB11 at only $7,700, and he has an 82 percent Bargain Rating to go along with his FantasyLabs projected ownership of zero to one percent. If you want to play him because you’re the ultimate contrarian who thinks that Ryan’s current heat could melt Frodo’s ring, then . . .
- It’s your funeral.
- Play him on FD.
On DK, where he’s $7,100 and the QB6, he literally is the worst play in Mordor — or at least the lowest-rated QB in the Bales Model.
Just Because
Point: Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is highlighted in this week’s Stacking Guide, and he’s the highest-rated DK QB in the Bales and Levitan Player Models.
Counterpoint: ShitzMagic has Delhommed nine interceptions in two games. He’s pacing to throw 40 INTs this season — which amazingly would not be an NFL record (Hall-of-Famer George Blanda had 42 in 1962), so Fitzy isn’t on pace to have literally the worst QB season ever, just the second-worst season ever. He’s only $5,100 on DK, where has an 88 percent Bargain Rating — but it’s still really hard to think of him as a bargain.
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way:
• Ben Roethlisberger: He’s the league’s best home QB, scoring 27.73 DK and 25.05 FD PPG at Heinz Field since 2014, and the Steelers are implied to score 28 points against a Jets team with a defense ranked 31st in pass DVOA.
• Andrew Luck: He’s the highest-rated FD QB in the Sports Geek Model, and the Colts are implied to score 25.75 points as four-point home favorites against a Bears team with a middling pass defense. And he’s Andrew F*cking Luck.
• Matthew Stafford: He’s priced as a QB1 but has been amazingly inconsistent this year and now is facing an Eagles defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs and ranked first in pass DVOA.
• Philip Rivers: He’s facing an Oakland defense that is 28th in pass DVOA and allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing QBs . . . but he’s been a low-end QB2 as often as he’s been a QB1 this year, and he’s priced as a QB1.
Finally, the Falcons have allowed the most TDs passing and fantasy points in the league to opposing QBs. This season, each starting QB they’ve faced (except for an injury-impacted Newton) has scored at least 25 fantasy points against them. Each team they’ve faced has scored at least three TDs passing.
Paxton Lynch is going to make his first NFL start at home for the Broncos this week against the Falcons. He is likely to be owned in no more than one percent of tournament lineups (per our projections). He deserves exposure in guaranteed prize pools.
Positional Breakdowns
Be sure to read the other Week 5 positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
