Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, highlights his favorite NFL props at PrizePicks on the Fantasy Flex Podcast each Friday with Chris Raybon. Koerner has a 389-288-4 (57%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Bears QB Justin Fields Over 215.5 Pass Yards, Under 44.5 Rush Yards
For Fields’ debut as an NFL starter, 215.5 passing yards is simply too low. The Bears are seven-point underdogs heading into their Week 3 matchup against the Browns (check real-time NFL odds here), which should mean a more pass-heavy game script.
The No. 11 overall pick has an array of weapons with both Allen Robinson II and Darnell Mooney at his disposal. Fields may opt to scramble less than people think despite his notoriety as a threat on the ground — I’d also recommend taking his under 44.5 rushing yards for this matchup.
I project Fields closer to 240.5 passing yards and would take this up to 225.5.
Steelers RB Najee Harris Under 69.5 Rush Yards
Harris is in an interesting spot in Pittsburgh. He has to earn most of his yards as the Steelers’ offensive line really isn’t helping him much — 84% of his rushing yards have been after contant, the third-highest rate among 38 RBs.
I foresee the Steelers starting to use dump-offs to the first-round pick as an extension of the run game and doubt he’ll come close to this line.
I’m projecting Harris closer to 60 rushing yards and would take this down to 66.5.
Buccaneers RB Leonard Fournette Under 21.5 Receiving Yards
Fournette had five receptions on seven targets for 27 yards and zero touchdowns in Week 1, which he followed up with a 4/24/0 performance in Week 2. Giovani Bernard hasn’t been involved in the Bucs’ target share much just yet, perhaps because of the ankle injury he suffered in the preseason.
I expect Bernard’s role to grow at the expense of Fournette. Fournette’s 82% catch rate and 24% target rate should also regress a bit.
I’m projecting Fournette closer to 16.5 receiving yards this week and would take this down to 19.5.
Rams WR Cooper Kupp Over 77.5 Receiving Yards
There’s simply no way Kupp can keep up his current 34% target rate, but his 100% routes-run rate is encouraging enough that I don’t expect him to regress too much, especially given his apparent chemistry with Matthew Stafford.
This matchup against the Buccaneers should be a shootout and I’m projecting Kupp closer to 86.5 receiving yards — I’d take this up to 82.5.
Ravens WR Marquise Brown Under 4.5 Receptions
After back-to-back games with a touchdown, Brown missed practice Thursday after being a limited participant on Wednesday. This injury could limit him in what should be an easy matchup against the Lions. With the injury, this could be a big game for Mark Andrews. I’d take this right at 4.5 receptions.
